President Cyril Ramaphosa's political career hangs in the balance as the governing party goes to its elective conference on Friday, ironically the Day of Reconciliation.
There will be little to no reconciliation between Ramaphosa and his foes, who have smelled blood in the wake of Ramaphosa's political weakening in recent weeks.
Before the weekend's battle, Ramaphosa must first pass Tuesday's hurdle in Parliament, where ANC rebels opposed to whitewashing the Section 89 report on Phala Phala are likely to vote with opposition MPs to adopt the report.
I don't think 31 ANC MPs (the minimum number required) are likely to vote against party instructions to reject the report authored by retired Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo and his panellists, but stranger things have happened.
If the likes of Zweli Mkhize and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma manage to get enough rebels to vote against party instructions, it will mean that Parliament must institute a Section 89 impeachment hearing into Ramaphosa, where both Parliament and the head of state will get the opportunity to present evidence on Phala Phala.
It is improbable that Ramaphosa will put himself through a "public trial", during which the minute details around the Phala Phala burglary and cover-up will be laid bare for all to see. And in light of Ramaphosa's suspension of Busisiwe Mkhwebane, the Public Protector, to face her Section 89 hearing, he can hardly defend remaining in office while facing an inquiry.
In the unlikely event that Parliament adopts the Phala Phala report on Tuesday, chances of a Ramaphosa resignation will be high again.
Party instructions
But the ANC has shown with their defence of former president Jacob Zuma against a Nkandla impeachment hearing that they seldom defy party instructions. The party sees this as a political attack on their leader, who probably stands between a potentially disastrous or a manageable defeat in the 2024 election.
This takes us to Friday, the start of the ANC's 55th national elective conference at Nasrec, south of Johannesburg. In party tradition, the conference should have taken place in another province this year, but because the ANC is effectively bankrupt, they couldn't afford to go outside of Johannesburg.
I see four possible scenarios playing out at Nasrec.
The first and most likely scenario is a Ramaphosa victory as party president. Despite his recent setbacks on the Phala Phala case, the president is still viewed by many of the 4 722 voting delegates from branches all over the country as the best choice for the ANC.
Poll after poll has shown that Ramaphosa's support, albeit in decline, is still about 10 percentage points higher than that of the ANC. In the context of a declining ANC and opposition coalitions taking charge of Tshwane, Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay, party delegates will know that this is a battle for survival and would likely support a candidate with the best chance of maintaining the ANC's majority at the 2024 election.
Mkhize
This is the biggest challenge Zweli Mkhize, Ramaphosa's only competitor for party president, faces. Scenario two is a Mkhize victory, but it is unlikely that the Phala Phala fallout has weakened Ramaphosa to the extent that thousands of delegates believe Mkhize is a better candidate to lead the ANC into the watershed 2024 election.
Mkhize's other major issue is his own scandal: Digital Vibes. The former health minister is accused of benefitting from a R150 million tender to provide Covid-19 communication services awarded to his close allies and friends. The case is still under investigation by the Hawks and the Special Investigating Unit (SIU).
Parliament's ethics committee found that Mkhize did not personally benefit from the tender but did not consider the SIU's findings that his family benefited.
Mkhize can hardly take the moral high ground over Ramaphosa when he could still be implicated in criminal conduct by the country's law enforcement agencies.
Scenario three
Scenario three is an interesting but high-stakes one. At the last meeting of the ANC's national executive committee (NEC), it was decided that the conference would debate both the Phala Phala and Digital Vibes cases. The party's integrity committee recommended Mkhize's suspension and found the Phala Phala scandal brought the party into disrepute, but couldn't make any findings against Ramaphosa because he did not appear before them.
Mkhize is appealing against the findings, and Ramaphosa maintains he is not allowed to divulge details to the integrity committee on the instruction of the acting Public Protector.
If most ANC delegates at Nasrec decide that both Ramaphosa and Mkhize are unsuitable to lead the party for the next five years, a third candidate could be nominated from the floor to be added to the ballot paper.
This would open the door for Paul Mashatile, the ANC's treasurer-general and Gauteng strongman, to become a possible "third-way" presidential candidate. But it's a significant risk. If Mashatile accepts the nomination and loses against Ramaphosa, it will seriously damage his political ambitions.
It is no secret that Mashatile wants to be the next ANC president, and he may choose to play his cards safe and only contest for deputy president, where he has a clear lead over his competitors.
If he becomes ANC deputy president, and Ramaphosa is forced to resign in the next few months over one of the many Phala Phala investigations, Mashatile will be the frontrunner to be appointed caretaker president. A "waiting in the wings" scenario may be a more palatable option for the former Gauteng premier.
Scenario four is that the ANC conference collapses and cannot elect new leadership. Former president Jacob Zuma has reportedly told his supporters to disrupt both Ramaphosa and Mashatile's speeches. Still, it is not clear that enough delegates would prefer this chaotic option that will hasten the party's electoral demise.
Even with the Phala Phala cloud hanging over his head, Ramaphosa will likely emerge victorious from the Nasrec conference if he survives Tuesday's bruising encounter in Parliament.
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