It is always perilous to predict the outcome of a race as tight as the ANC leadership election on Sunday. If you get it right, you look good for 15 minutes. If you get it wrong, the internet will never forgive you.
But let me give it a try nevertheless: this should never have been a close contest for the incumbent, Cyril Ramaphosa.
When Ramaphosa narrowly defeated Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma in 2017, with a mere 179 votes, he had a golden opportunity to fundamentally change the ANC. Ramaphosa was very much cast as the "good guy" candidate to save the ANC from the Zuma era implosion.
He had so much going for him; the executive powers of the state president and the enormous influence of party leader should have been enough for Ramaphosa to do what he and his campaigners promised - to root out the rot.
And yet, he almost squandered it on the altar of an unachievable pipedream called "unity".
Ramaphosa wanted to unite the Zuma rogues with those in the ANC who actually want the best for South Africa and its people. He was never going to succeed.
Early in his term, an ANC veteran told me: "You can never unite the corrupt with the anti-corrupt, it's as simple as that." Yet, Ramaphosa didn't grasp this basic concept until it was almost too late.
He thought he could consolidate his power inside the ANC and get everyone, rogues included, to support him. But why would you support a president who champions an anti-corruption ticket if your only ambition in life is to use your ANC power as a ticket to tender riches and cronyism?
Ramaphosa failed to unite the ANC, and here we are yet again, where his opponents and enemies have coalesced around Zweli Mkhize as their candidate to undermine Ramaphosa's anti-corruption achievements of the past four years.
Mkhize's own campaign is interesting. I was asked at a book launch in 2019 who the most likely candidate was to challenge Ramaphosa's power in 2022. My answer was Lindiwe Sisulu.
At the time, she seemed like the most likely candidate from the anti-reformist group in the ANC, loosely identified as the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction, who could mount a campaign to unseat Ramaphosa.
In 2019, Mkhize was comfortably sitting as Ramaphosa's health minister and ally from KwaZulu-Natal. A few months later, they had to work together incredibly closely to spearhead South Africa's response to Covid-19.
By and large, the Ramaphosa-Mkhize duo was impressive in championing South Africa's health response to the global pandemic. Until Digital Vibes struck.
Mkhize is accused of personally interfering in the appointment of a company owned by his friends and advisors at a cost of R150 million to drive communications about Covid-19.
Investigative journalist Pieter-Louis Myburgh uncovered in Daily Maverick that some of the money had flown to a property, owned by Mkhize's family trust, and to Mkhize's siblings in various forms.
A Special Investigating Unit investigation into Digital Vibes implicated the minister personally, and he was forced to resign from Ramaphosa's Cabinet and retreat to his farm outside Pietermaritzburg.
This gave Mkhize plenty of time to become the champion of those injured by Ramaphosa's term, even though he himself was never a RET champion or leader. Mkhize effectively became the obvious candidate to challenge Ramaphosa because there simply wasn't anyone else.
Let's be clear: Mkhize is no Carl Niehaus or Ace Magashule. The former KwaZulu-Natal premier and finance MEC is very much a pro-business politician who was known for briefing corporates behind the scenes during the Zuma era when he served as ANC treasurer-general.
Those in the so-called RET faction may be disappointed with Mkhize if he somehow manages to pull off a victory on Sunday night. There is simply no chance he will immediately, fundamentally change South Africa's economic principles or give in to populist land grabs.
In fact, it was Mkhize who finally convinced Zuma to fire "weekend special" former finance minister Des van Rooyen after the Guptas almost succeeded in capturing National Treasury. After immense pressure from the markets and ANC leaders in the wake of Van Rooyen's appointment, it was ultimately Mkhize who told Zuma to reappoint Pravin Gordhan and calm the markets.
Mkhize has no incredibly unique ideas on how to govern better than Ramaphosa, other than to say Ramaphosa has been too slow and ineffective as head of state to address our many challenges. His biggest challenge will be all the payback requests if he manages to emerge as ANC president.
Mkhize can be assured that many of the RET rogues who supported him at Nasrec will claim their pound of flesh. What will he say to the likes of Magashule, Supra Mahumapelo, Tony Yengeni and Nomvula Mokonyane if they come knocking for positions?
And how will he react to those charged for state capture crimes, including the Guptas, if they pressurise him to undo the achievements at the National Prosecuting Authority, a state body that may yet have to decide whether or not to charge him for Digital Vibes?
Remember that Zuma did not endorse Mkhize, but Dlamini-Zuma to challenge Ramaphosa. I'm sure Mkhize would want to be his own man if elected and not simply an empty vehicle for a return to the disastrous Zuma years.
On the News24 team's calculations, Ramaphosa is still in the lead and should manage to beat Mkhize with between 200 and 400 votes. But it will be close, and nobody should pop champagne corks yet.
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