Friday, December 28, 2018

The Congo-A Dream Deferred

CONGO

A Dream Deferred

Last week, election officials in the Democratic Republic of Congo delayed elections until Dec. 30.
Many voters went apoplectic.
One could hardly blame them. As the BBC explained, President Joseph Kabila, in power since 2001 after the assassination of his father, was supposed to leave office in 2016 under the vast Central African country’s constitution. But election officials at the time found excuses to delay the vote.
Recently, a mysterious fire destroyed 8,000 voting machines in Kinshasa, the capital. Officials found replacement machines but needed time to print five million new ballots, Independent National Election Commission President Corneille Nangaa said.
“Nangaa speaks nonsense,” protester Fiston Adumba told the Associated Press. “They didn’t organize the election in seven years and they want us to believe they will be ready in seven days? Kabila is sabotaging the election. Kabila must go.”
Adumba is not an outlier.
“My Country Is Sliding Toward Chaos,” was the headline of a New York Times op-ed piece by Denis Mukwege, a Congolese doctor and activist who was a co-winner of the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize.
Mukwege called on Kabila to resign, saying security forces and the president’s allies had killed peaceful opposition supporters. The European Union, he added, has imposed sanctions on Kabila’s handpicked successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, for cracking down on opponents.
If Shadary wins via legitimate or illegitimate means, unrest is likely to result. But, in a characteristic autocrat’s move, Kabila is using that threat of violence to curtail civil rights. The governor of Kinshasa, who’s a member of Kabila’s ruling coalition, banned campaigning, citing fears that extremists were preparing for “a street confrontation,” Al Jazeera reported. Election officials postponed voting until March in three cities, too, citing Ebola and ethnic violence.
Alas, experts have been warning of such tactics for months.
“The Congolese political class has demonstrated its venality, betraying a population that has repeatedly pushed for its right to elect a new president in a free and fair process,” wrote Stephanie Wolters, a South Africa-based expert at the Institute for Security Studies, in a report last month.
Bloodshed could be on the horizon, a potential catastrophe. Civil war in the country in the 1990s dragged in Congo’s neighbors, sparking an international conflict that has been called Africa’s World War.
Luckily, as France24 showed in this fascinating broadcast, the Roman Catholic Church wields significant power in the country. Church officials have called for Kabila to step down and for voters to make sure they cast ballots and participate in democracy peacefully.
The clergy might fail. But Kabila could make their job a lot easier.

Thursday, December 27, 2018

Libya-Still Simmering

LIBYA

Still Simmering

Three suicide bombers hit Libya’s foreign ministry in Tripoli on Tuesday, providing further evidence that the turmoil there is far from over.
First detonating a car bomb and then opening fire on the ministry building, the attackers managed to kill at least three people, Reuters reported. Two managed to get inside before blowing themselves up, while a third was killed by ministry guards.
Interior Minister Fathi Ali Bashagha said the authorities are still trying to ascertain the identity of the assailants, but he hinted that Islamic State could be responsible for the attack. IS claimed responsibility in a statement distributed on social media, accordingto Channel News Asia.
“Security chaos in Libya offers propitious conditions for IS (Islamic State) and other terrorist groups,” Bashagha said at a Tripoli press conference.
Foreign Minister Mohamed Taher Siala called for a partial lifting of the UN arms embargo on Libya to help the country fight such groups.
Though the Government of National Accord set up in 2016 has created a measure of unity, Libya’s still-simmering civil war has allowed militant groups to thrive.

Monday, December 24, 2018

Sudan: Speaking Of Protests

SUDAN

Speaking of Protests

Four days of widespread protests in Sudan are prompting hopes and fears of an imminent end to the 29-year rule of President Omar al-Bashir, who was indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court in 2010.
It’s not the ethnic cleansing in Darfur but his disastrous economic performance that has sparked his people’s ire, Israel’s Haaretz newspaper reported, following the deaths of at least nine protesters and the arrests of 14 opposition leaders.
Sudan lost three-quarters of its oil output when the south seceded in 2011.
The protests began Wednesday after the government tripled the price of a loaf of bread from about $0.02 to $0.06, heightening anger over inflation and shortages of basic commodities, Al Jazeera reported.
While the number of protesters has been low, demonstrations have cropped up around the country and persisted despite the deployment of tear gas and baton-wielding riot police, the news channel noted. On Monday, the country’s doctors are expected to go on strike in the first of a series of work stoppages planned by an umbrella coalition of professional unions.
A

Tunisia: The Spark That Changed the World

TUNISIA

The Spark that Changed the World

Eight years ago this month, a Tunisian fruit vendor finally had enough of the low wages, corruption and indignities he and his family had suffered for years. A female police officer had slapped him in the face in the marketplace, a humiliation he would not endure.
“What happened next changed the world,” wrote the Independent.
Mohammed Bouazizi lit himself on fire in front of the governor’s office in Sidi Bouzid, a provincial city in the center of the North African country.
His act of self-immolation triggered a wave of protests that morphed into the Arab Spring, an uprising that helped give rise to a revolution and coup d’état in Egypt, the rise of the Islamic State, the Syrian civil war and other convulsions in the Middle East.
On Dec. 17, the eighth anniversary of Bouazizi’s death, Tunisian activists took to the streets wearing red vests – an echo of the yellow vests worn by French protesters who are also disgruntled with the state of things in their country.
“We won’t back down and we won’t go home until our demands are met,” Riad Jrad, a leader of the Red Vest movement, toldBloomberg.
Another activist, Seifeddin El-Ghabri, said that wearing the vests was not necessary. “This is the name of our movement, but the first blow came in Sidi Bouzid, which witnessed the igniting of the spark of revolution in Tunisia in 2011.”
Tunisia is a rare example of a thriving democracy in the Arab world. It has a vibrant civic culture.
When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited in November, for example, demonstrators panned him as an autocrat who killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi, reported Reuters. Such demonstrations would be crushed in many other countries in the region.
Even so, the country faces big challenges, including a sluggish economy and terrorism.
Teachers, lawyers and civil servants have gone on strike, demanding pay raises after years of stagnant wages.
The protest movement adopted the color red “because the economic situation in Tunisia has hit dangerous levels,” wrote Al Monitor.
In 2015, Islamic State fighters attacked tourist spots in Tunis and on the Mediterranean. Today, analysts say they are less worried about Tunisian militants returning home from Iraq and Syria – a phenomenon that raises fears in European countries – than they are about terrorist groups that continue to operate in the country’s impoverished south, the Washington Post reported.
“Tunisia is the land of recruitment,” International Crisis Group analyst Michael Bechir Ayari said.
Tunisia is in a tricky situation right now. Tyrants and democrats should beware.

Friday, December 21, 2018

Egypt: Let My People Go

EGYPT

Let My People Go

An Egyptian court acquitted at retrial 43 employees of non-governmental organizations who had earlier been convicted of illegally receiving foreign funding.
In the original 2013 case, three Egyptian workers, an American and a German were sentenced to two years in prison but avoided actually serving any time behind bars. Eleven received suspended sentences, and the rest were tried in absentia, the BBC reported.
The 2013 case outraged US authorities, not least because it involved NGOs linked to the Democratic and Republican parties.
“This was a bogus case that targeted human rights defenders simply for doing their legitimate work and should never have happened in the first place,” said Najia Bounaim of Amnesty International.
However, Bounaim warned that the recent verdict only relates to the funding of international NGOs in Egypt, including the US-based International Republican Institute and National Democratic Institute, and dozens of employees of local Egyptian NGOs are still at risk.
The crackdown on NGOs followed the army’s ouster of the country’s first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi.

Morocco-Terrorism vs Tourism

MOROCCO

Terrorism vs. Tourism

Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen said the killings of two Scandinavian tourists – at least one of whom was reportedly decapitated – in the mountains of Morocco were “politically motivated and thus an act of terror.”
The bodies of the two university students, one of whom was Norwegian and one of whom was Danish, were discovered Monday in Morocco’s Atlas Mountains.
On Thursday, Moroccan authorities said they had detained four men in connection with the crime, saying the suspects are the same four men seen in a video that was circulating on Twitter last week, the Associated Press reported.
The video reportedly shows the four suspects pledging allegiance to Islamic State.
Morocco is investigating the crime as an act of terrorism, but authorities there have declined to name a specific terror group. Meanwhile, Norway Prime Minister Erna Solberg said terrorism “is not the only lead that is being investigated in Morocco,” but the case “emphasizes the importance of combating violent extremism.”

Thursday, December 20, 2018

South Africa-Coup de Grace

SOUTH AFRICA

Coup De Grace

South Africa issued an arrest warrant for Grace Mugabe, the former first lady of Zimbabwe, on charges of assaulting a model with an extension cord in 2017.
Police spokesman Vishnu Naidoo said on Wednesday that the warrant had been issued nearly a week earlier, according to the BBC. “I can confirm that a warrant for the arrest of Grace Mugabe was issued last Thursday,” Naidoo said, adding that the South African authorities are seeking the assistance of Interpol to enforce the warrant.
A South African court stripped Mugabe of diplomatic immunity in July.
Gabriella Engels has claimed that Mugabe beat the “hell out of me” with an electric extension cord in a hotel room in Johannesburg. Mugabe, the second wife of former Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe, says she acted in self-defense when the “intoxicated and unhinged” model attacked her.
The alleged assault took place about three months before a military takeover in Zimbabwe resulted in Robert Mugabe’s resignation after 37 years in power.

Togo: A Big Message From A Small Country

TOGO

A Big Message from a Small Country

At least four people died as protesters clashed with police last week in Togo. Among them was a 12-year-old boy.
The violence continued regardless.
“Even after a child was killed, Togo’s authorities continue to fuel the violence by deploying military officers carrying firearms to protest sites, which risks exacerbating an already tense situation,” saidAmnesty International in a report on the tiny West African country.
As Bloomberg wrote, the protests stemmed from the government’s decision to proceed with parliamentary elections set for Thursday despite opposition parties’ call for a boycott.
Opposition leaders are angry over a dispute with President Faure Gnassingbé over term limits, the African Center for Strategic Studies, a Pentagon-funded think tank, explained.
Gnassingbé assumed office in 2005 after the death of his father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who was president for 38 years. His critics want to retroactively limit the president’s tenure to two terms, barring Gnassingbé from running for re-election in 2020.
But Gnassingbé proposed election reforms that would allow him to run for two more terms in the future, and potentially hold office until 2030.
Most Togolese support the opposition’s retroactive term limits. The question was slated to be put to voters in a referendum for Sunday, but that vote apparently was not held as tensions rose in the country.
In the run-up to the referendum and local elections, Gnassingbé banned protests. As this France 24 broadcast showed, the president’s critics were far from cowed.
“We’re not going to give our blessing to this masquerade being prepared,” opposition leader Brigitte Adjamagbo-Johnson told local radio, according to Agence France-Presse. “We will do everything so that the elections don’t happen – we never want fraudulent elections in Togo.”
In response, the government claimed to be simply maintaining order. “A boycott is a democratic choice,” said Gen. Yark Damehame. “One should not seek to destroy the voting booth or the ballot box.”
It’s not clear who outside Gnassingbé’s regime is supporting the president.
A civil society advocacy group, Living Force for Hope in Togo, appears to represent the public’s mind on the boycott, according to La Croix International, a France-based, English-language Catholic news outlet.
“Has the Togolese government abandoned its mission to protect individuals and simply become a repressive apparatus for arbitrary arrests and killings?” the group said in a statement.
Gnassingbé might control the levers of power, but against the will of his people, he can’t hold all the cards in this conflict.

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Burkina Faso West Has A Terrorist Problem

Burkina Faso, west Africa’s linchpin, is losing its war on terror

Attacks are intensifying, but the authorities have no idea who is behind them

The cappuccino patisserie in the centre of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso’s capital, offers freshly baked croissants and that rare delicacy in west Africa, a decent Italian coffee. Its other features are less charming: a thick security barrier and two twitchy soldiers with assault rifles guard its patrons.
This was the place where jihadist terrorism first came calling three years ago. Jihadists attacked Cappuccino and the nearby Splendid Hotel. Thirty people were killed and dozens were injured. A conflict that had been raging next door in Mali had just jumped into a linchpin state. Burkina Faso has borders with six other west African countries; instability there could create a corridor by which jihadism might spread from the Sahel into states along the Gulf of Guinea. A long-overlooked country of 20m people is now seen as a vital battleground. And the fight is not going well.

Latest stories

See more
Since January 2016 there have been more than 230 attacks in Burkina Faso. In 2017 jihadists killed 18 people in an attack on Aziz Istanbul, a Turkish restaurant. Another 16 people (including eight assailants) were killed in attacks on the French embassy and army headquarters in March.
The conflict is concentrated mainly in two zones, along its northern border with Mali and in the east towards the border with Niger (see map). In both areas the jihadists are mobile and heavily armed. Their primary targets are generally government offices and military outposts. More than 250 people have been killed.
Less clear is who is behind the fighting. Some attacks, such as the one on Cappuccino, have been claimed by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, a jihadist group that operates across large parts of the Sahel. Others have been claimed by a variety of similar groups including Nusrat al-Islam, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and Ansarour Islam. But more than 90% of the attacks remain unclaimed and unattributed.
Forensic work offers some clues. Brigadier General Oumarou Sadou, the chief of staff of Burkina Faso’s army, says that there are similarities in the home-made bombs used in the north and east, suggesting that the attacks are linked. But beyond that, General Sadou is puzzled as to the identity of the attackers, particularly in the east.
Some suspect former members of the security services loyal to Blaise Compaoré, who ruled the country for 27 years before being toppled in a people’s uprising in 2014. His fall led to the dissolution of his 1,200-strong presidential guard. Many of its members are disgruntled at having lost their privileges. There is no hard evidence of their involvement.
However, Mr Compaoré’s henchmen had long-standing links to the jihadists. The International Crisis Group, a think-tank, says that his regime cut deals with armed groups in the region, giving them support in exchange for a promise not to attack Burkina Faso. This truce unravelled in 2013, after jihadist rebels took control of the northern half of Mali. France sent in troops to push them back and Mr Compaoré was forced to deploy 1,000 soldiers to the border with Mali.
Now Burkina Faso itself needs assistance, particularly air support, says General Sadou. “Mali was asking for help before they had their crisis. No one listened,” he says. “If we do not get more help, I see the situation definitely getting a lot worse.”
Neighbours including Togo, Benin and Ghana have sent troops to their borders near Burkina Faso and have raided suspected militant outposts. But it is not clear whether Burkina Faso will get much direct support. France has already committed 4,500 troops to the region, yet they are stretched thin. The g5 Sahel, a counter-terrorism force consisting of 5,000 troops from Mali, Mauritania, Chad, Niger and Burkina Faso, which was established to deal with just this sort of threat, is struggling to get troops into the field.
Aziz Istanbul has yet to reopen since it was attacked. Its shattered windows and walls pocked by bullets offer a worrying vision of where the country may go.
This article appeared in the Middle East and Africa section of the print edition under the headline"The next domino"
Reuse this content