Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Zimbabwe Has A Presidential Election

 

Lose, Lose

ZIMBABWE

Police in Zimbabwe arrested 40 leaders of the opposition Citizens’ Coalition for Change (CCC) party on charges of blocking traffic about a week before the southern African country’s voters go to the polls to choose a new president, parliament, and local councils.

Law enforcement claimed that the CCC notified them of their demonstration but diverted from their planned path, Africanews reported.

The election on Aug. 23 is the second since President Emmerson Mnangagwa of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF) party took power in a coup in 2017 that deposed longtime leader Robert Mugabe. Mugabe ran the country like an autocrat since 1980, when white minority rule ended in the former British colony. Mnangagwa similarly won office in a disputed 2018 election marked by allegations of fraud and other irregularities.

Mnangagwa, 80, a former Mugabe ally, is squaring off against the 45-year-old CCC leader Nelson Chamisa.

Inflation and human rights are at the top of voters’ minds. Mnangagwa took office pledging to uphold free speech, political expression and other rights. But his critics say that little has changed from Mugabe’s iron rule.

As the BBC explained, for example, Chamisa won 44 percent of the vote in 2018. But two years later, a court kicked him out of the Movement for Democratic Change opposition party, forcing him to build a new political organization without state funding. For this election, the government has banned voters living abroad to vote, a move that will likely hurt Chamisa.

Human Rights Watch published a report entitled “‘Crush Them Like Lice’: Repression of Civil and Political Rights Ahead of Zimbabwe’s August 2023 Election,” that gives an idea of the scale of the Zimbabwean government’s underhanded meddling, including “weaponizing the criminal justice system against the opposition.”

Mnangagwa has also proposed legislation that would punish “unpatriotic acts,” including meeting with foreign agents (a catchall term that could refer to spies – or humanitarian non-governmental organizations) with prison sentences of 20 years if those meetings involve talk of changing the government, added the Associated Press.

Analysts say the president needs to compromise his people’s rights because he’s arguably been incompetent at managing the economy. Still, part of this isn’t his fault: The cost of living in Zimbabwe has skyrocketed in the last year because of the lagging effects of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both of which have led to increased food and fuel costs. Through May this year, prices were almost 86 percent higher compared with 12 months earlier.

The president’s critics, meanwhile, want a national discussion on the economy, job creation, electricity shortages, diversifying the economy, and regaining more control of the country’s resources, said members of a Chatham House roundtable discussion. Zimbabwe is a major exporter of lithium, an important component in electric vehicle batteries and other green tech, but Chinese companies control many of the country’s mines, Foreign Policy noted.

Telling voters to shut up and pay up doesn’t seem like a winning strategy, but Mnangagwa is unlikely to leave things to chance.


Monday, August 21, 2023

South Africa: Gauteng MEC Lebogang Maile Embodies Arrogant National Congress.

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON,
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

For subscribers

Gauteng MEC Lebogang Maile embodies the Arrogant National Congress

In about nine months from now, the residents of Gauteng are widely expected by numerous polls to vote out the ANC as the governing party of South Africa's richest province. 
 

According to these polls, the party will attract less than 40% of votes in next year's election in the province.
 

The ANC will appoint a task team of elders afterwards to assess what happened and where things went wrong after 30 years of ruling Gauteng. I could spare them some time and money; start with the conduct of Human Settlements MEC Lebogang Maile this week to answer your question about how the ANC lost Gauteng.
 

By Monday morning, it will be 72 hours after Maile launched into a racist and intimidatory tirade against senior News24 investigative journalist Kyle Cowan, calling him a "stupid racist white man" for doing his job. Three days later, nobody, neither Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi, nor Maile's ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa, had rebuked, censured, or fired Maile.
 

On Friday morning, Cowan sent a text message to Maile after his spokesperson failed to answer News24's basic questions about a probe into a government agency under Maile's control.
 

The probe into the Gauteng Partnership Fund (GPF), a provincial government entity that grants friendly loans to private businesses to assist with infrastructure development, was triggered by a News24 exposé on 12 July about Deputy President Paul Mashatile.
 

The story, written by Cowan and his colleagues in our investigations unit, revealed that the luxurious R37 million Waterfall mansion Mashatile was living in was purchased by a company belonging to his son-in-law, Nceba Nonkwelo. Another of Nonkwelo's companies, Nonkwelo Investments, had received at least R30 million in loans from the GPF between 2013 and 2017.
 

Mashatile was human settlements MEC between 2016 and 2018.

Nonkwelo Investments received the money from the GPF to develop student accommodation in Highlands, Johannesburg. Despite millions borrowed by the Gauteng government to Mashatile's son-in-law, not a single unit has been built.
 

On the day of publication, Maile wrote to the GPF board, ordering them to appoint a law firm to investigate the loans to Nonkwelo Investments. He made all the right noises, calling on transparency and accountability, and said a legal firm would be appointed within 30 days.
 

But then things got weird. When News24 inquired from the GPF board how far they were in the process to appoint a law firm, they referred all queries back to Maile's office, despite the MEC telling News24 the probe would be handled by the GPF's board to ensure independence.
 

You see, Maile's older brother, Mike, is a key member of the so-called Alex Mafia, a group of comrades who were student activists with Mashatile in Alexandra and rose to positions of power and influence during Mashatile's reign in the province. Mike Maile was one of the applicants who unsuccessfully tried to interdict News24 from using the term "Alex Mafia" ever again.
 

Lebogang Maile himself has described Mashatile as a comrade and older brother.

Our brief to the News24 investigations team was to keep very close tabs on the GPF investigation as we have learnt from experience that the terms of reference and identity of investigators are often key to making or breaking any probe.
 

That is why Cowan, on Friday, wanted answers about the appointment of a law firm. The 30-day deadline Lebogang Maile had set for himself and the GPF had passed.
 

After not receiving a response from Maile's office, Cowan contacted the GPF, who referred him back to Maile. He then sent questions to Maile via text message, and the MEC returned his call, launching into what can only be described as a racist and defamatory tirade.
 

It is unacceptable for any elected official to bully, intimidate and harass a journalist like that. Maile's outburst is unfortunate but telling. He could not answer a simple question from Cowan – when are you appointing a law firm to investigate Mashatile's son-in-law? Instead, he accused Cowan of being racist for daring to question him.
 

Maile is clearly in a corner and under pressure to find an elegant solution for his "older brother" and "comrade" Mashatile out of this mess.
 

We're sorry, MEC, but the spotlight will remain on you and the deputy president. Your behaviour is despicable and possibly unlawful.
 

News24 is still weighing up our legal options and we are grateful to our subscribers who have encouraged us to hold Maile to account.
 

The silence of Lesufi, who confirmed to Cowan that he had received the audio clip of Maile's tirade, and the ANC, is deafening.
 

Instead, ANC leaders, including Lesufi and Ramaphosa, gathered in Gauteng on the weekend to strategise for next year's elections and used the opportunity to insult the Multiparty Charter formed in Gauteng last week. Ramaphosa called it a "sideshow", and Lesufi said they were a "gang of losers".
 

When the ANC's support in Gauteng dips under 50% next year, and the party is forced to find coalition partners or make its way to the opposition benches, they need not look further than August 2023 to understand why decent, law-abiding citizens deserted the Arrogant National Congress.

Monday, August 14, 2023

Did South Africa Send Artillery Shells To Russia?

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

For subscribers

It's simple: If Ambassador Brigety lied about Lady R, he should go

On 11 May, the United States Ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety II, called a press conference in Pretoria, saying he would "bet my life" that South Africa smuggled weapons to Russia aboard the Lady R tanker.
 

Brigety's shocking announcement, dubbed #LadyRussiagate, had a devastating impact on South Africa. Assuming that the ambassador would have been privy to solid information, if not evidence, from his country's expansive intelligence agencies, the West slammed South Africa for actively arming an aggressor in a devastating war.
 

Brigety's announcement did massive damage to South Africa's global reputation and standing. Although the country could legitimately be criticised for its so-called "neutral" stance on Russia's war in Ukraine, there is a big difference between not supporting resolutions of the United Nations and arming Russia.
 

The latter would have placed South Africa among the skunks of the world who actively support Russia in their war against Ukraine - countries like North Korea, Syria and Belarus.
 

In addition to the reputational damage, Brigety's shocking "revelation" directly contributed to the Rand plummeting from R18.80 against the US dollar before the announcement to R19.30 a week later. The currency only returned to pre-Brigety levels a month later.
 

This directly contributed to the South African Reserve Bank hiking the repo rate by 50 basis points; a completely preventable decision that impacted millions.
 

The DA's seasoned shadow minister of finance, Dion George, commented in the wake of Brigety's announcement: "This alignment [with Russia] alienates South Africa from Western trade partners, a development that would invariably invite economic repercussions, including the devaluation of our currency and loss of trade benefits. This strains the SARB in its effort to shield the rand, intensifying our battle against inflation."
 

In the wake of Brigety's bombshell, the government scrambled to comment coherently on what exactly happened that December 2022 night in Simon's Town harbour – a national key point.
 

It took Thandi Modise, the defence minister, two weeks to say in crude language that nothing was loaded onto the Lady R. Modise's explanation for the Lady R's presence in South Africa was always that it was the late offloading of ammunition, bought by South Africa from Russia before Covid-19 hit the world.
 

The ammunition is reportedly used by the army's special forces in fighting terrorism in northern Mozambique.
 

President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed the experienced former Deputy Judge President of Gauteng, Phineas Mojapelo, to investigate Brigety's claims that South Africa – either through the state or private entities – loaded weapons onto the Lady R after the Russian ammunition was offloaded.
 

In the meanwhile, the South African government scrambled to repair relationship damage with the United States. Bipartisan lawmakers threatened to remove us as a beneficiary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
 

AGOA is a huge boost for duty-free exports to the US of goods and products, like cars, fruit and wine.
 

But in Washington DC, the Biden administration had uncomfortable questions about Brigety's bold claim. The respected publication Politico quoted several sources in the Biden administration, saying the ambassador had "overstated what the US definitively knows".
 

Some saw Brigety's claims as a useful punch in the gut to remind South Africa about its much deeper economic ties with the West and China, than with Russia. But Washington had become deeply concerned that it was based on a lie.
 

In recent weeks, there had been several reports, including on News24, that Mojapelo had concluded his report and found no arms were shipped to Russia. The process is unfortunately cloaked in secrecy, and Ramaphosa has been urged to release the full report.
 

But it seems those in the know, who have had access to the report, agree that Brigety got it wrong. US officials gave input to the Mojapelo investigation, so he saw whatever Brigety saw that led to the fateful press briefing of 11 May. No arms were loaded onto the ship.
 

South Africa will not take his life, but the best Brigety can do is to unconditionally apologise and tender his resignation. It is unconscionable that he can remain in his position with moral authority after such mendacity.

Monday, August 7, 2023

South Africa: One Step Closer To An ANC-DA Grand Coalition-And Why It Is Good News

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON,
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

For subscribers

One step closer to an ANC-DA grand coalition - and why it's good news

A significant political moment took place on the University of the Western Cape campus last week: the governing ANC and the official opposition, the DA, moved closer towards the possibility of a grand coalition in 2024.
 

This is possibly the single most significant political development of the year so far.
 

Something that seemed like a faint possibility a year ago is now being seriously considered by the two largest parties in South Africa's legislature.
 

How did we get here, and why is this a positive turn of events?
 

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula told the conference on coalitions, "We are also keen to explore grand coalitions in order to ensure stability, service delivery and local development".
 

He confirmed to News24 he was referring to the DA.
 

Mbalula said the idea was currently limited to local government, but it is hard to believe that the ANC would not discuss a grand coalition with an eye on next year's national and provincial elections.
 

A grand coalition is when the two largest parties, neither having achieved 50% of the vote, work together in the interest of stability rather than making deals with smaller parties who often have enormous appetites.
 

The actions of rogue political entrepreneurs have forced the ANC and DA, representing about 80% of the South African electorate, to consider cooperation.
 

The ANC has bloodied its head in Gauteng, where the EFF has proved the most unreliable coalition partner in Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg.
 

Both municipalities are now led by minnow mayors from the AIC and Al Jama-ah, respectively, in what must be a low point in ANC history.
 

Luthuli House has all but pulled the plug on the ANC's tumultuous experiment with the EFF in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
 

Outside the province, minnow parties, often led by single representatives who received as little as 8 000 votes, are pulling the strings in increasingly unstable municipal governments.
 

Twenty-four parties are represented in the eThekwini municipal council, where minnows with single seats hold sway; in Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC removed the DA-led administration by handing the mayorship to a party with three seats.
 

Mbalula's comments at last week's seminal conference clearly indicate that the ANC had reached the end of its tether, dancing to the tunes of minor parties.
 

Both the ANC and DA have suggested introducing a threshold for representation at all three levels of government.
 

This is not an unusual or unique proposal: many countries worldwide have a threshold of between 1 and 8%, meaning parties who fail to achieve the threshold do not receive a seat in the House.
 

In some countries with minority groups, these parties are exempted from the threshold.
 

In the National Assembly, nine parties received less than 1% of the votes in 2019: the ACDP, UDM, NFP, ATM, GOOD, AIC, Cope, PAC and Al Jama-ah. These parties receive thousands of rand from the represented political parties' fund, and their MPs are well-remunerated.
 

Small parties have been livid about the ANC and DA's proposal of a threshold, but it is hard not to see a direct link between their criticism and the potential loss of income.
 

As we move closer to a coalition government at a national level, it is prudent to assess the contribution of minnow parties and their potentially destructive impact on service delivery based on the real examples from Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and Nelson Mandela Bay.
 

Moonshot pact
 

In 2024, 200 seats will be reserved for independent candidates, and there is an argument to be made that representatives of minnow parties should aim to win a seat in this block.
 

DA leader John Steenhuisen said their focus was on the convention for a moonshot pact scheduled for next week to unseat the ANC.
 

Steenhuisen can hardly confirm considering a grand coalition ahead of a convention where he will lead an attempt to form a united front against the ANC.
 

But, and this is a big BUT, nobody in the DA who has access to the internet and a calculator can be bullish that a pact with the IFP, ActionSA, the FF Plus and a few small parties will get them to 50% of the vote next year.
 

Together, in 2019, these parties collectively failed to reach 30% of the vote (given, ActionSA did not exist then, but even if Herman Mashaba's party has a spectacular run and reaches 10%, they will still struggle to get 50% together).
 

The moonshot pact is a noble exercise, and there are plenty of good reasons why the ANC has lost the authority to govern South Africa.
 

Still, realistically it will remain the largest party in the country after the 2024 polls, and a grand coalition with the DA is an exceedingly more attractive and stable option than opening the doors of the Union Building to the EFF and a few opportunistic political entrepreneurs.

Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Russia Is Gaining Influence In Niger

 

Palace Intrigue

NIGER

Two years ago, the president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum, was elected in the West African country’s first peaceful, democratic change of government since independence from France in 1960.

He almost didn’t make it – a coup was attempted to thwart him from taking office, but was reportedly stopped by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, the commander of the Presidential Guard, according to Al Jazeera.

Last week, a few days after that same guard ousted Bazoum in a coup, army commanders suspended Niger’s constitution, all political parties, closed all borders, and declared Tchiani – who led Wednesday’s coup – the new head of the transitional council, and de facto head of the country, reported the Associated Press.

“(We decided to) put an end to the regime that you know due to the deteriorating security situation and bad governance,” he said on television, adding it was “necessary” to avoid “the gradual and inevitable demise” of the country.

There has been no talk of returning to civilian rule.

The turn of events has caused concern and dismay across Africa, and elsewhere.

The stakes are high because landlocked Niger sits amid some of the most unstable parts of the planet: war-torn Libya for one, while regions of Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, and the vast and dangerous Sahara Desert of southern Algeria host jihadists who have gained in strength over the past few years.

Thousands have been killed and six million displaced in the region due to jihadist insurgencies.

Niger, one of the least-developed and poorest countries in the world, hosts some of those refugees displaced by the insurgents. At the same time, the country is Africa’s second-biggest uranium producer.

Still, Niger is especially important to the US and the West, wrote National Public Radio, because the country hosts US drone bases, around 1,100 American troops, 1,500 French soldiers, and other foreign personnel. It is vital to America and Europe’s counterterrorism campaign against the Islamic State and other militant forces in the Sahel.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the coup on Twitter, saying he opposed “any effort to seize power by force and to undermine democratic governance, peace & stability in Niger,” noted NBC News. American and French officials have also signaled their support for Bazoum and the democratic process that elected him to office in 2021, Politico reported.

But American and French generals have also been working closely with the Nigerien military for years and probably would very much like to continue that cooperation, especially in light of rising anti-French sentiment and coups in the region, often assisted by the Russian military contractor and mercenary outfit, the Wagner Group. For example, France moved its soldiers to Niger from Mali after a military coup last year that was assisted by Wagner.

Meanwhile, as the Intercept explained, the US military trained one of the officers who organized the coup. An unnamed American official told the Intercept that their training adhered to US and international law, but they had no control over foreign military personnel.

In the meantime, the leader of the Wagner Group, an arm of Kremlin influence in Africa, took credit for the coup. In a statement posted on the social media site Telegram, Yevgeny Prigozhin suggested that Wagner had supported the military junta and would now help Niger deal with terrorists rather than the US and France.

“What happened is the struggle of the people of Niger against the colonialists,” Prigozhin said. “This is actually gaining independence and getting rid of the colonialists.”

On Sunday, thousands of people marched through the streets of the capital Niamey denouncing France, waving Russian flags, and some even set a door at the French Embassy ablaze, Africanews wrote.

Some have suggested that there is a connection between the coup and Niger’s ousted president declining to attend Putin’s Africa summit earlier this month. But others say coups are nothing new in a region that regularly sees them.

Niger has had five successful coups since 1960. This latest one is the sixth – after one in Guinea and two each in Burkina Faso and Mali – in West Africa in the past three years, underscoring the region’s moniker, the “coup belt.”

Still, the powerful regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, has threatened military action against the junta if it doesn’t reinstate Bazoum as president in a week, and imposed sanctions on those involved in the coup or working for its institution. The European Union has cut off aid and the US is considering doing so.

And there isn’t peace in the coup household either. Government officials loyal to Bazoum, as well as French diplomats, have said the coup was “not final,” with infighting beginning to break out between the plotters, CNN added.

The palace intrigue is not yet over.