South Africa's Nuclear Weapons Program

 

Josue Dennis Chance

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June 13

Ophthalmologist at Eye Doctors of Washington

What strategic objective was South Africa trying to achieve by building an atomic weapon? What external threat were they trying to deter with said weapons before the project was terminated?

South Africa’s nuclear weapons strategy is a very bizarre one, and has undergone only the smallest of historical studies within the framework of wider nuclear deterrence literature. I will try to give you the best answer as I can.

First, South Africa did not need nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield, where it was dominant amongst the African states in terms of conventional arms. Analysts during the 1970s and 1980s labelled the nuclear weapons programme “the diplomatic bomb” — Betts in particular identified the psychological value of having nuclear weapons to the white population as being more signficant than its tactical advantage to antagonistic war.

Secondly, there was the “deterrence by uncertainty” — did South Africa have nuclear weapons, and what would it do with them? This approach was emphasised by various government officials within South Africa stating in confusing ways that they had the means to make a bomb, and would do anything to protect the existence of apartheid South Africa.

The biggest argument however is that the strategic objective was that of “catalytic deterrence” — instead of aiming to deter any one country, by possessing nuclear weapons it was hoped that the US would intervene on the behalf of South Africa should the USSR ever use South Africa as the launching point for any military assaults (since South Africa was technically outside the Western alliance because of apartheid). South Africa’s nuclear weapons were not designed to serve as traditional deterrents.

South African Nuclear Program.

South Africa’s nuclear doctrine fits into neither of the traditional deterrence models (Schulz’s bluff or Hagerty’s opaque existential). What South Africa’s possession of nuclear weapons would do is force another nation to intervene — a third party actor whom South Africa would compel to act for it.

Absolutely great article on this exact question and who explains it in amazingly clear detail is Catalytic Deterrence? Apartheid South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Strategy by Donald Goodson. I would highly recommend having a look at that if you are interested!

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Kenya Fights Coronavirus

KENYA

No Easy Fix

Kenya has extended a nightly curfew for another month and banned alcohol sales to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

The measures reflected a need to curb reckless behavior, especially among young people, that has led to a surge in virus cases, officials said. “The harsh reality my friends is that we are at war. At war with an invisible enemy who is relentless,” said President Uhuru Kenyatta in an address covered by Al Jazeera.

He stopped short of fully closing down the country, however, noted Reuters. “We cannot have a policeman at every street and in every village to enforce the rules,” Kenyatta said. “We need, as citizens, to hold ourselves and one another accountable.”

But some critics are wondering who is going to hold the government accountable as it curtails freedom of movement and civil rights to manage the public health emergency.

Citizens have submitted a flood of complaints about brutality among police enforcing the curfew, the New York Review of Books wrote. One death that arose from the curfew involved a young woman who slipped down a ravine as she sought to elude police. She fell into a river and drowned. Another was the shooting of a 13-year-old boy, Yassin Moyo, who was on the balcony of his house watching police enforce a dusk-to-dawn curfew, one of at least 95 cases of killings they say were linked to police this year since the pandemic broke out, the Washington Post reported.

Pregnant women, meanwhile, can’t find functioning public transportation during curfew hours to get to hospitals even as they brave exposure to police on the streets, the Associated Press reported. Many opt to have their children at home with midwives but many fear needing more medical attention if something goes wrong during birth as well as hygiene conditions: They worry the midwife might be unwittingly spreading Covid-19.

Many Kenyans feel as if the government has abandoned them in a time of need, the Washington Post explained. Pessimism has set in. Kenyatta unveiled a coronavirus plan to run from February through April. Officials appeared to have abandoned it once the first case was registered in March.

Now, the education system, which includes private schools that operate on fees, is threatening to collapse, CGTN reported. Two million children are likely to shift into already overcrowded public schools as a result. Years of underfunding the health system are also taking a toll as hospitals struggle to care for patients without sufficient equipment, added the Conversation. Clean water is difficult to come by for the poor.

Kenyatta loosened restrictions he imposed in the early days of the pandemic because they caused the economy to shrink. A locust infestation didn’t help, either. Meanwhile, the country is considering waiving the two-week quarantine rule for tourists in a bid to revive commerce and bring in more foreign cash.

The money might help, but the world is still in the early days of a crisis that is going to take more than tourism to fix.

Alcohol And Tobacco Banned In South Africa During Pandemic

NEED TO KNOW

SOUTH AFRICA

Prohibition Redux

South Africa banned alcohol and tobacco in the face of harrowing Covid-19 infection rate increases.

Officials said they were following expert advice in watching out for public health.

Smokers, for example, should kick the habit during the pandemic, according to the World Health Organization. They have a higher risk of death from Covid-19. “There are good reasons for people to quit, and especially (in) this time of Covid-19,” said Catherine Egbe, a scientist at the South African Medical Research Council, in an interview with the Associated Press.

In March, South Africa imposed one of the earliest and most draconian lockdowns of any country and successfully flattened the curve. Analysts said the restrictions brought down the death rate to about 1 percent, among the lowest in the world.

South Africa rolled back its confinement and, as it did, the virus began to spread faster. South Africa is now reporting more than 10,000 cases a day.

Along with this, the government eased some of the restrictions for alcohol and tobacco but reinstated them as the pandemic worsened. During a period when alcohol sales were briefly permitted, people lined up at stores to stock up, Quartz explained.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa banned alcohol because, he said, it increased the number of trauma cases in hospitals already overwhelmed by the virus, and made it more likely for folks to break curfews and rules against congregating, Voice of America reported.

“In the midst of our national effort to fight against this virus, a number of people have taken to organizing parties, who have drinking sprees, and some who walk in crowded spaces without the protection of masks,” he said.

Meanwhile, illicit tobacco sales have shot up, the BBC wrote, creating a potential un-monitored trade that might spread the virus as officials are trying to cut infections. An opinion piece in the South African news outlet Independent Online described a burgeoning bootlegging industry while the legitimate businesses that employ thousands and generate tax revenues are withering on the vine.

South Africa has nine million smokers and many of them are desperate. Take this message on a WhatsApp group used by suburban moms in South Africa, ABC News noted. Amid the complaints about taking care of kids during the lockdown, one “desperate mama” asked: “Does anyone know where to get illegal cigarettes? I just need a few. I’m desperate.”

Writing in the Daily Maverick, a South African news magazine, public relations consultant Emma King said that South African Breweries, one of the original companies that went on to become the Belgian-American beer juggernaut Anheuser-Busch InBev, put around 250,000 people to work in its supply chain earlier this year before the lockdowns and bans took place. Those jobs are now in jeopardy.

Meanwhile, the bans have become a national conversation about the power of government, the truthfulness of politicians, personal freedom and civil liberties and public health, Al Jazeera wrote. The alcohol industry, meanwhile, has offered to launch programs to curb irresponsible drinking, Bloomberg reported.

Trauma has declined likely due to the alcohol ban. But the coronavirus cases in South Africa continue to climb worryingly. While some attack the president for taking away their smokes and tipples, Ramaphosa’s political opponents have criticized him not moving quickly or decisively enough to quell the virus, for example, re-imposing lockdowns, wrote National Public Radio.

The president says that a new lockdown would cause more harm than good. Instead, he begged South Africans to take personal responsibility, wear masks, keep a distance from each other and stop gathering.

“This is in our collective hands,” he said. “Let us remember that every individual action that we undertake does and can make a big difference. Now more than ever we are responsible for the lives of those around us.”

I Am Madly In Love With Cape Town!!!!!

I am madly in love with three world cities-San Francisco, Rio de Janeiro, and Cape Town. It has been almost 24 years since I left Cape Town the last time. I have been ready to go back several times. I can't do it. I know that once I arrive, I will never be able to leave. Cinemax and a major South African television company came together and produced a great 6-part miniseries called Trackers. It is a well-written and well-acted series about joint US and South African efforts to stop a major bio-terrorist attack during a well-attended sporting event. It was shot in Cape Town. What a treat!!!!!!

Botswana: The Silent Killer

BOTSWANA

A Silent Killer

Botswanan wildlife officials said Thursday that hundreds of elephants have mysteriously died in the country’s famed Okavango Delta, ruling out poachers as responsible.

“We have had a report of 356 dead elephants in the area north of the Okavango Delta and we have confirmed 275 so far,” Cyril Taolo, the acting director of the Department of Wildlife and National Parks, told Agence France-Presse.

Taolo said that poachers aren’t likely responsible because the tusks remained intact on the dead elephants – poachers kill elephants to sell their tusks.

Conservation charity Elephants Without Borders released a report last month saying similar deaths were first reported in May in the northwest of the country.

The charity suspects that elephants have been dying in the region for about three months, adding that a few live elephants were spotted showing signs of weakness and disorientation, or limping.

Botswana has the world’s largest elephant population, estimated to be around 130,000.

The Congo: Frenemies

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

Frenemies

A court sentenced Vital Kamerhe, chief of staff to President Felix Tshisekedi, to 20 years of hard labor on charges of corruption and embezzlement in a case that was a test of Congo’s resolve to tackle high-level corruption, Bloomberg reported Saturday.

Kamerhe was found guilty of embezzling more than $50 million from infrastructure projects linked to the first 100 days of Tshisekedi’s term. He has denied the charges and said the accusations were politically motivated.

Meanwhile, Tshisekedi has not commented on the case.

Kamerhe has been a powerbroker in the country for 15 years, leading former President Joseph Kabila’s first election campaign in 2006, after which he became head of the National Assembly.

Kamerhe broke with Kabila in 2009, then ran for president against his former boss in 2011, finishing third. He became chief of staff in 2018 in a deal with the current president which would have allowed him to run for the top job in 2023.

He is no longer eligible due to the conviction.

The case has captivated the nation, especially after Congo’s justice minister announced last week that the judge who had initially presided over Kamerhe’s trial, and who died last month, was murdered: The judge’s autopsy revealed that he died from a brain hemorrhage caused by head trauma, prompting the police to begin a murder investigation.

His arrest marks a win for Tshisekedi’s government in the fight against endemic corruption, but also removes a key ally in the president’s power struggle with Kabila’s supporters who still dominate the country’s institutions.

Even so, analysts say the verdict doesn’t mean Congo has turned a page in its fight to clamp down on corruption.

“It’s not lost on anyone who knows the DRC that this will make both Kabila and the Tshisekedi camp very happy…because both Kabila and Tshisekedi always saw Vital Kamerhe as an important political rival,” Stephanie Wolters of the South African Institute of International Affairs, told Bloomberg. “So, there are a number of reasons to be skeptical about the motivation of this and also to be skeptical about the longevity of any kind of sustained effort to go after anybody in the DRC who’s involved in corruption.”

Mocambique: A Perfect Storm

MOZAMBIQUE

A Perfect Storm

South African anti-poaching snipers helped Mozambican forces push back militants in the country’s war-torn, gas-rich northern region of Cabo Delgado recently.

As reported in the Telegraph, the appearance of the sharpshooters was the latest development in a civil war that kicked off in late 2017. The militants known sometimes as Ansar al-Sunnah have seized towns, and beheaded those who resist. In the port city of Mocímboa da Praia, the rebels hoisted the black flag of Islamic State on government buildings. More than 1,000 people have died in the fighting.

Thickening the plot, a massive gas field was discovered off the coast of Cabo Delgado. The US has been competing with China to finance development of the field, Bloomberg reported.

The government has also been arresting journalists and researchers who have attempted to investigate happenings in the region, raising questions about whether officials have launched a heavy-handed response that might help stoke the uprising, the New Humanitarian wrote.

Writing in World Politics Review, Yale University Doctoral Candidate Hilary Matfess and RAND Corporation Political Scientist Alexander Noyes agreed with that point. In a video, for example, militant leaders appealed to Cabo Delgado residents, saying, “We occupy (the towns) to show that the government of the day is unfair. It humiliates the poor and gives the profit to the bosses.”

As the violence has escalated, it’s been hard to bring humanitarian aid into Cabo Delgado that might improve the situation. As many as 200,000 people in the region are displaced, a potential disaster in a country that already suffers from the challenges related to poverty.

“There are still thousands of displaced people who are hiding in the bush, too scared to go back to their villages,” said Caroline Gaudron Rose of Medecins Sans Frontieres “They are terrified of the ongoing violence…without shelter, clean water and access to medical care, they are extremely vulnerable.”

The coronavirus pandemic is now complicating matters, Voice of America added. Displaced people can spread the virus not only through their movements but by hunkering down together when they understandably seek safety in numbers.

The militants have handed out food and other supplies to people in a bid to drum up public support.

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi, meanwhile, has vowed not to let the fighting devolve into a civil war reminiscent of the 16-year-long conflict between communists and anti-communists that ended in 1992, Vatican News reported. Regional leaders are discussing how to help, Al Jazeera noted.

Observers say that’s a start. But the response is not quick enough.

“I don’t know what the government is going to do,” said a 29-year-old teacher from Muidumbe, speaking to the New Humanitarian. “Right now, there’s people who don’t know what they’re going to eat.”