South Africa's Nuclear Weapons Program

 

Josue Dennis Chance

·

June 13

Ophthalmologist at Eye Doctors of Washington

What strategic objective was South Africa trying to achieve by building an atomic weapon? What external threat were they trying to deter with said weapons before the project was terminated?

South Africa’s nuclear weapons strategy is a very bizarre one, and has undergone only the smallest of historical studies within the framework of wider nuclear deterrence literature. I will try to give you the best answer as I can.

First, South Africa did not need nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield, where it was dominant amongst the African states in terms of conventional arms. Analysts during the 1970s and 1980s labelled the nuclear weapons programme “the diplomatic bomb” — Betts in particular identified the psychological value of having nuclear weapons to the white population as being more signficant than its tactical advantage to antagonistic war.

Secondly, there was the “deterrence by uncertainty” — did South Africa have nuclear weapons, and what would it do with them? This approach was emphasised by various government officials within South Africa stating in confusing ways that they had the means to make a bomb, and would do anything to protect the existence of apartheid South Africa.

The biggest argument however is that the strategic objective was that of “catalytic deterrence” — instead of aiming to deter any one country, by possessing nuclear weapons it was hoped that the US would intervene on the behalf of South Africa should the USSR ever use South Africa as the launching point for any military assaults (since South Africa was technically outside the Western alliance because of apartheid). South Africa’s nuclear weapons were not designed to serve as traditional deterrents.

South African Nuclear Program.

South Africa’s nuclear doctrine fits into neither of the traditional deterrence models (Schulz’s bluff or Hagerty’s opaque existential). What South Africa’s possession of nuclear weapons would do is force another nation to intervene — a third party actor whom South Africa would compel to act for it.

Absolutely great article on this exact question and who explains it in amazingly clear detail is Catalytic Deterrence? Apartheid South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Strategy by Donald Goodson. I would highly recommend having a look at that if you are interested!

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