ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP/Getty Images
Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, on Aug. 7
Summary
Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara flew to the United States and France in separate instances on aircraft registered to U.S. companies. STRATFOR believes the United States could be providing additional security to Ouattara, who will likely face threats after having emerged victorious from a recent civil conflict. Such a move is consistent with the U.S. approach to combat al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and drug trafficking in West Africa.
Analysis
Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara flew to France on Aug. 24 for a two-week vacation, arriving on a Gulfstream G3 aircraft, tail registration N712AS, privately registered to Andalex Aviation II LLC, a company out of Wilmington, Del. On July 28, Ouattara flew to Washington, and on the following day met with the presidents of Benin, Niger, Guinea and the United States. On that visit, the Ivorian president arrived on a Gulfstream G5 aircraft, tail number N598F, registered to an apartment under the name Jet Greene LLC in Miami Beach, Fla.
It is possible that the aircraft are registered to front companies for U.S. government agencies. Interestingly, Ouattara could have chartered a plane from companies based in countries closer to home or even Ivory Coast, so the question begs: Why would he need to charter a plane registered to an apartment in Miami Beach?
Ouattara only recently assumed the presidency. Although he was democratically elected in 2010, he had to take Abidjan militarily before he could replace his predecessor, Laurent Gbagbo. He now faces threats, including those from the remnants of the Gbagbo regime, and even from within his own camp. The aircraft show that he has found the means by which he will mitigate those threats: U.S. patronage. The United States will use this patronage to ensure Ouattara’s complicity in its regional approach to counter al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and combat drug trafficking in West Africa.
U.S. Support Before and After the Conflict
While such a tactic is anomalous for the United States, it is not without precedent. In 2006, the U.S. government provided security personnel, including Diplomatic Security Service agents, to Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who was elected in 2005 after Liberia emerged from its Second Civil War. The agents likely served only as long as it took to train Liberian forces for the task.
In the case of Ivory Coast, the United States was a staunch supporter of Ouattara from the moment he won the controversial election. However, there is no evidence to support the idea that the United States was directly involved in the Ivorian conflict, unlike France. (Paris sent military assistance in the final siege of Abidjan, deploying attack helicopters to destroy Gbagbo’s defenses
at his presidential compound.) Indeed, U.S. support of Ouattara appeared to be rhetorical throughout the conflict.
But if the United States is providing transportation to Ouattara through U.S. government offices or U.S. corporations, it could be a sign that the Washington was more involved in the conflict than was previously thought. The United States is unlikely to approach Ouattara with gifts of private jets for no reason; it is likely that the two sides were in talks all along, and any talks would likely entail U.S. protection, given the violence surrounding Ouattara’s ascension to power.
Mitigating Potential Threats
It is unsurprising that there could be threats to the Ouattara regime. Now that Ouattara is in power, assassination attempts by those loyal to the Gbagbo regime, unhappy to be out of power, are a danger. Also, dissatisfied members within Ouattara’s former power base could pose a threat. Ibrahim Coulibaly, for example, was the leader of the militia that was instrumental in the fight to bring Ouattara to power. After Ouattara defeated forces loyal to Gbagbo, Republican Forces led by current Prime Minister Guillame Soro killed Coulibaly in an
offensive against his compound in Abidjan’s Abobo district. If Coulibaly’s supporters perceive that Ouattara was responsible for his death, assassination attempts cannot be ruled out. Finally — and notably — there is the potential threat posed by Soro. The prime minister is a cunning political actor who is thought to have recently benefited from
Burkinabe presidential security forces that will serve as his personal security detail. Ouattara has no doubt identified Soro, just under 40 years old, as a potential long-term threat and could seek to bolster his own security via the United States.
Transportation would not be provided without the tacit permission of the U.S. government. If U.S. companies or agencies are transporting Ouattara, it is probable that the United States is providing additional security assistance to Ivory Coast. This would be in the form of anti-militancy assistance, VIP protection for the government, and security training to the Ivorian presidential protection team.
The United States has every incentive to take on these tasks, as it leads the fight against drug trafficking and AQIM operations in West Africa. In a multi-state effort to fight these operations, the Americans have likely also encouraged Burkina Faso’s involvement in security detail in Guinea. Also, the Burkinabes, have likely provided security for Soro to endear themselves to the West, particularly France — which is still involved in protecting its commercial interests in the West African country — and to position themselves as the West’s regional enforcer. (Notably, the United States is taking the lead in supporting Ivory Coast, likely in an effort to outbid France.)
With U.S. security assistance, Ouattara can be expected to survive the potential threats against him, which in turn will help him serve in office longer than he would without that assistance. In return, the United States has yet another ally in the region, one who will ensure its interests in combating militancy and drug trafficking operations are met.
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