Tuesday, November 21, 2023

South Africa-Kwazulu Natal Has A Big Election Next Year

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON,
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

KwaZulu-Natal in 2024: Prepare for a cliffhanger election

Who will govern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa's second-richest and second-most populated province, after the 2024 provincial election?
 

Could the ANC lose the province it fought so hard to win again after 20 years of governing the Zulu Kingdom? Could this be the province where the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), courtesy of the IFP and the DA, rules the roost?
 

The latest polling results have suggested it will be a cliffhanger to decide who governs KwaZulu-Natal for the next five years, in next year's provincial election.
 

The DA, known for having the most sophisticated polling machinery of all the country's political parties, released results on the weekend, showing the ANC stuttering on 38% support in the province. This should cause provincial party leader Siboniso Duma and his comrades sleepless nights.
 

Duma has not been in the news for the right reasons since he took over the ANC chairpersonship in the province in July last year. 
 

Recently, President Cyril Ramaphosa had to intervene to stop Duma from splurging R20 million of the troubled province's budget on hosting the glitzy SA Music Awards.
 

Shortly after that, Duma was accused of sexism by the ANC Women's League after grabbing the Rugby World Cup, the Webb Ellis trophy, when it was supposed to be handed to Premier Nomusa Dube-Ncube during the Boks' victory parade in Durban.
 

But Duma may have more significant troubles ahead if he bothers to take note of the DA's poll. The same poll has both the IFP and DA on 22% each of the popular support in the province. Together with ActionSA and the ACDP, the MPC is polling at 47% in the province.
 

The DA/IFP match-up may prove to be a game-changer in KwaZulu-Natal. The two parties have signed a pact to cooperate in the province and don't contest each other in by-elections.
 

The DA has announced its energetic and popular uMngeni Municipality Mayor Chris Pappas as the party's premier candidate in the province. It is not the IFP's tradition to announce premier candidates, although it may be the largest partner in the MPC in the province. 
 

The DA's poll is echoed by the results of a similar poll by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) in KwaZulu-Natal in September. This survey estimated the ANC's support at between 37% and 41%, depending on turnout. The SRF polled the DA on about 21% and the IFP on 27%.
 

It looks abundantly clear now that KwaZulu-Natal, a province battered by the July 2021 riots, torrential floods, the collapse of road infrastructure and Transnet's incompetence, will be governed by a coalition government after next year's election.
 

This is not unknown territory for the province; IFP-ANC coalitions, in which the IFP was the largest partner and received the premiership, ruled the province after the 1994 and 1999 provincial elections.
 

In 2004, the ANC surpassed the IFP, scoring 47% of the provincial vote. The ANC gave the IFP three MEC positions, but the coalition fell apart when the IFP started cooperating with the DA in KwaZulu-Natal municipalities.
 

In the 2009 (63%), 2014 (65%) and 2019 (54%) provincial elections, the ANC managed to win outright. 2009 and 2014 were Zuma years; former president Jacob Zuma was the ANC's first Zulu-speaking leader in a democratic era and remains popular in his home province.
 

Zuma's ascendancy left the IFP limping with a pitiful 11% showing in 2014 (when the DA scored 13%). But Zuma's demise in the ANC and Ramaphosa's rise has chilled the ANC's support, with the party now polling around 40%, fourteen percentage points less than in 2019.
 

The Zuma factor is not the only one affecting KwaZulu-Natal voting patterns. The province has little to show for service delivery achievements over the past five years. When the province received R6 billion in relief funding in response to the April 2022 floods, it only spent R250 million, for which the Auditor-General scolded it.
 

Currently, the ANC's only path to governing KwaZulu-Natal is through a coalition with the EFF, which polls between 7% and 11%, according to the SRF and DA. Even then, the two will have to convince smaller parties to choose them over the DA/IFP option.
 

Both blocks – the ANC/EFF and the IFP/DA/ActionSA – are together polling just short of the magical 50% needed, meaning smaller parties like the National Freedom Party, ACDP and the FF Plus may play a significant role in determining who governs the province.

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Tuesday, November 14, 2023

27,000 South Africans Were Murdered Last Year

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON,
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

27 000 South Africans were murdered last year. When are we marching for them?

Seven-year-old Zubair Jacobs was playing with friends outside his home in Mitchells Plain when gangsters shot and killed him last week.
 

On the same day, a 20-year-old man was shot dead in Eastridge in gang violence.
 

A few days earlier, 12-year-old Kelly-Amber Koopman was sitting with friends in Wesbank, Delft, when she was shot in the head by gunmen and died.
 

State witness Sicelubuhle Moyo and her husband, Wilfred Dube, were assassinated last week on their way to the Randburg Magistrate's Court, where Moyo was scheduled to testify against four police officers for torturing her.
 

A mineworker from Westonaria, Johannesburg, was stabbed to death last week by a colleague, who cut open his stomach.
 

Two weeks ago, retired electrician Lindsay Humm, 60, was axed to death in his house in Gqeberha next to a church.
 

Last month, Lucasta Plaatjies, 23, was shot dead on her way home from a wedding in Gqeberha. She was pregnant.

 

Megan Griesel, 20, was shot dead when she drove past a business robbery in Lydenburg, Mpumalanga, last month.
 

These nine names will be forgotten when Police Minister Bheki Cele releases the crime statistics for 2023/24 next year.
 

Cele will claim the police are winning the war against crime and boast about his shoot-to-kill policy.
 

There will be no marches or fiery speeches by ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, like the one he made on Saturday in Cape Town during a pro-Palestinian demonstration that saw tens of thousands of Capetonians wave the Palestine flag, brandishing anti-Israel posters.
 

If there wasn't an election next year, and the ANC wasn't languishing in support in the Western Cape, Mbalula would be nowhere to be seen.
 

There was nothing wrong with Saturday's march, and it is the constitutional right of every South African to protest peacefully for or against any cause.
 

It is regretful pro-Israeli protesters weren't allowed to march for their cause on Sunday in Sea Point peacefully.
 

I completely get why the violence in the Middle East so viscerally moves people that they take to the streets, even though they are physically removed thousands of kilometres from the carnage.
 

What I don't understand is the failure of us as South Africans - myself included - to be so enraged by the daily killing of our brothers, sisters, uncles and aunts to take to the streets similarly and say, "no more".
 

I am afraid we have become so accustomed to our obscene crime rate of 74 murders per day we have lost the ability to become angry when we read about the stories I listed above.
 

Have we become numb to the slaughters happening around us?
 

What is happening in Gaza is atrocious; why can't we express the same anger at the innocent 27 000 lives that are taken annually in our own neighbourhoods and streets?
 

I only listed nine names above of murder victims over the past month.
 

In that period, more than 2 200 more people were murdered in South Africa.
 

Every human life is sacred, and numbers don't diminish the pain, but this is 1 000 more than the number of innocent civilians butchered by Hamas on 7 October.
 

Despite our differences of opinion and beliefs, South Africans have repeatedly shown we can unite against a common enemy.
 

I doubt there will be any peace-loving citizens who are not willing to take a stand against the butchering of our friends and family members in war zones all around us.
 

It is as clear as daylight that our politicians and the police have failed to protect us from the scourge of organised crime plaguing our land.
 

It is time that we stand up, like we do for Palestine and Israel, against the war on our doorsteps.

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Nigeria Has Become An International Power In The Film Industry!

 

Hooray for Nollywood

NIGERIA

In the Nigerian-produced film for Netflix, “The Black Book,” actor Richard Mofe Damijo plays an ex-security forces agent-turned-deacon, who exacts revenge against the crooked police officers who framed and murdered his son. As he tracks down the bad cops, wrote Wired magazine, he seeks to “dismantle a rotten institution that he helped build.”

The West African country’s military and massive oil industry also serve as important plot points in the film about redemption, which has become a global blockbuster.

More than 70 million people have streamed “The Black Book,” delighting boosters of Nollywood, Nigeria’s version of Hollywood. But, as University of Nigeria lecturer Ezinne Ezepue noted in the Conversation, the film also shines a light on the violent corruption that mars Africa’s most populous country.

Last month, for example, Nigerians staged memorial events for the victims of police brutality who died in clashes with security forces three years ago, reported the Associated Press. Those clashes stemmed from protests against the vaunted Special Anti-Robbery Squad, a unit that has since been disbanded due to its heavy-handed tactics. Fifteen protesters arrested during those events are still in prison, according to human rights activists.

“Nobody is going to be happy when you are unjustly killing people … oppressing them,” said Adebowale Adebayo, a memorial organizer who, coincidentally, is an actor, social activist and online content creator known in Nigeria as Mr. Macaroni.

The military, furthermore, continues to perpetrate “enforced disappearances” – kidnapping by government forces, essentially – in the country’s northeast, added Amnesty International. The organization noted that these disappearances were among many crimes that Nigerian troops committed in the region as they fought against Boko Haram, an Islamic State-affiliated terror group that has been ravaging the region for years.

Gangs also wield significant control of other parts of the country, including vast illicit markets, explained the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. Street crime is common. For Al Jazeera, a Nigerian student penned a first-person piece about how he was almost lynched while walking casually in Uyo, a southern city.

Corrupt security forces, terrorists, organized criminals, and petty thugs have made violence so endemic that Nigerians commonly wear magical charms they believe will protect them from bullets. It is not uncommon that someone tests their faith and dies from a gunshot wound, reported Africa News.

It’s like a film that never ends.

Join The Conversation

Kenya Starts To Emphasize Tree Planting

 

In Bouffier’s Footsteps

KENYA

Kenya will celebrate a nationwide tree planting day Monday, a new public holiday that will see citizens plant trees across the country in an effort to tackle climate change, the Associated Press reported.

Last week, Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki announced that Nov. 13 would be a surprise national holiday and called on Kenyans to make a “patriotic contribution to the national efforts to save our country from the devastating effects of climate change.”

Environment Minister Soipan Tuya added that seedlings would be provided to the public. The decision is part as part of the government’s plan to plant 15 billion trees across Kenya by 2032.

The government has allocated a budget of $80 million to increase Kenya’s tree cover to 10 percent from the current seven percent. This would enable the country to limit its carbon dioxide emissions – trees absorb carbon, while deforestation accelerates climate change – and help meet its obligations regarding climate action, the AP explained.

The impact of climate change in the region and the Horn of Africa has resulted in deep and devasting droughts, which prompted President William Ruto, who took office in 2022, to declare a national day of prayer in February. The rainy season has seen little to no rain for five seasons in a row.

King Charles III applauded the project while he was visiting Kenya two weeks ago, and took part in the tree-planting effort in the capital Nairobi.


More Political Instability In Sudan

 

The Darkest Shades of Dire

SUDAN

Sudanese paramilitaries and their allies took control of cities in Darfur from government forces, a major advance marked by reports of mass killings and fears of renewed ethnic violence in the restive western region, the Washington Post reported.

“The capture of the cities, previously divided between the militias and the army, is the most significant military breakthrough by the Rapid Support Forces since the war began seven months ago, and it threatens to usher in a new chapter of violence by drawing in forces that had kept aloof from the fighting,” the newspaper wrote.

Over the past two weeks, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured three of five regional capitals, including a number of important military bases. Witnesses’ accounts told of massacres of entire families and looting by paramilitary forces in the region. Aid officials said more than 7,000 people had crossed the border into Chad in the first three days of November, more than for the entire previous month.

The United Nations described the situation as “verging on pure evil,” adding that recent reports show that more than 800 people have been killed by armed groups in Ardamata, an area hosting a large camp for internally displaced people, Agence France-Presse wrote.

The civil conflict began in April following a dispute between the RSF, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), and the military, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Both leaders collaborated to overthrow a civilian government two years ago.

But both sides have since accused the other of atrocities: The military has repeatedly bombed civilian neighborhoods, while the RSF – allied with various ethnically Arab militias – has been accused of mass killings and ethnically motivated assaults in Darfur.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project, at least 10,000 people have died in the conflict, but the exact death toll is believed to be higher. Nearly five million people have been displaced.

Analysts called the RSF’s recent seizures a major breakthrough for the paramilitary unit, but warned that this could risk plunging Darfur into another civil war akin to one that devastated the region 20 years ago.

In 2003, the government of now-deposed President Omar al-Bashir unleashed Arab militias, known as Janjaweed, in response to a rebel uprising in Darfur. Janjaweed fighters burned villages, conducted mass killings and used mass rape as a weapon of war.

Later on, numerous Janjaweed units became integrated into the RSF, while certain ex-rebels secured governmental positions as part of a negotiated peace agreement.

Thursday, November 9, 2023

Political Unrest In Madagasgar

 

The Grudge Match

MADAGASCAR

A Madagascan court recently postponed the first round of the country’s presidential election by a week to Nov. 16, after security forces injured opposition candidates at unauthorized political demonstrations.

Police dispersing the demonstrations fired a tear gas canister that struck and injured opposition candidate and former President Marc Ravalomanana’s leg, wrote the Associated Press. Another opposition candidate, Andry Raobelina, sustained an eye injury after a tear gas canister hit him at a different protest.

Tensions are simmering in the Indian Ocean island nation because incumbent Andry Rajoelina, who was president until he resigned in September to run for reelection per the country’s laws, served as interim president for the government that followed Ravalomanana’s removal in a coup in 2009.

Ravalomanana, Raobelina, Hery Rajaonarimampianina – another former president – and other opposition figures in the so-called Collective of Eleven have organized unauthorized protest marches against what they describe as Rajoelina’s repressive regime, wrote the Institute for Security Studies, a think tank. They say that election officials and the security forces have rigged the election in Rajoelina’s favor, reported Africa News. American and European officials have lent credence to those suspicions by publicly saying they would watch the ballot closely.

Still, tear gas, rubber bullets, beatings and arbitrary arrests have marred demonstrations in the island country off the east coast of Africa, prompting the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights to appeal to Madagascan security forces to uphold citizens’ freedom to assemble and “refrain from using disproportionate force – to create an environment conducive to free, fair, and transparent elections.”

Rajoelina’s critics also charge that he is not a Madagascan citizen but is in fact French, added Reuters. He has denied the accusation, saying that, while he is a French citizen, he was born and raised in Madagascar.

Rajoelina said he applied for French citizenship because he qualified and he wanted his children to continue studying in France. But he might have become French as part of a Paris-brokered diplomatic deal where he bowed out of politics temporarily in 2013 to defuse a political crisis that was threatening to pull the country into chaos.

Madagascar is a former French colony that experienced brutal oppression under their imperial masters, a London School of Economics publication wrote.

In an interview with Radio France Internationale, Rajoelina said he didn’t agree with the court’s decision to postpone the election. He also rejected claims that a double standard exists in the country because security forces allowed him to hold political rallies but always dispersed those of the opposition.

He was right in asserting that he was not muzzling anyone, or muzzling them effectively, at least.


Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Long Ago Egypt Had Many More Venomous Snakes

 

DISCOVERIES

The Missing Snakes

A new study on a 2,300-year-old medical document suggests that ancient Egypt had more venomous snakes than today, Newsweek reported.

Scientists recently analyzed the contents of the Brooklyn Papyrus, an ancient scroll dating from 660-330 BCE.

Kept in New York City’s Brooklyn Museum, the medical treatise is one of the oldest preserved writings about medicine, and the study of snakes – known as ophiology.

A research team explained that the scroll lists in great detail a variety of snakes, how venomous they were, and how to treat their bites. Still, there are some species that remain unknown, partly because they no longer slither around modern-day Egypt.

Their study focused on 10 unidentified reptiles, including a highly venomous snake that was associated with the ancient Egyptian god Apophis, who took the form of a serpent.

The researchers used a statistical model called “climate niche modeling” to explore how the territories of different African and eastern Mediterranean snakes changed over time. Their findings showed that early ancient Egypt’s climate could have supported nine of the 10 species, adding that the region’s inhabitants dealt with a larger variety of venomous snakes.

This included the “great snake of Apophis,” which had four fangs and a venom that could “make the victim bleed from every orifice,” the team wrote in the Conversation.

They explained that the legendary snake could have been a boomslang that currently resides in the savannas of sub-Saharan Africa. It also sports four fangs and packs a venom that causes fatal hemorrhages.