Chad Grapples With Militants

Tides of Turmoil: Chad Grapples with Militants, a Refugee Crisis, and Land Fights Chad Kiskawa Dine used to be a village in the Lake Chad region in western Chad. Now, it is a ghost town, torn apart by floods and attacks by militants. “We lived peacefully, but as the water rose, Boko Haram’s attacks by canoe increased in the region. So, one morning in December 2024, we decided to flee,” Mahamat Abakar Sidick, the former chief of the village, told Le Monde. “That very evening, the jihadists took over our hamlet, then the army came and burned everything (to drive them out). The Chadian soldiers control the land, but the terrorists rule the water.” Communities along the banks of Lake Chad are among the main targets of Boko Haram, an insurgent group that formed in northeast Nigeria in the early 2000s, aiming to impose a strict form of Islam in the region, Le Monde noted. It is also very active across Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, which all border Lake Chad. Military operations carried out by the countries bordering Lake Chad weakened the insurgency but did not eradicate it. In Chad, however, the group thrives by “taxing” those in the region, or forcing them to pay ransom for kidnapped family members. At the same time, Boko Haram and its Islamic State offshoot, the Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP), battle for control of the area, leaving residents caught in the middle. Residents say the real danger is the vacuum left by security forces – a gap in which rival insurgents, not the state, now set the terms of daily life, the African Report wrote. Analysts attribute the failure to eradicate Boko Haram to the fact that in Chad’s Lake province, where half of the population lives below the poverty line, the promise of a steady income enabled the insurgency to attract young people otherwise with no prospects, fueling its endless war and highlighting the government’s inability to secure jobs for the region’s youth. Climate change also plays a role in this conflict, they add: As water levels rise in some parts of the Lake Chad region, flooding farmlands, it becomes easier for jihadists to move around. Meanwhile, Boko Haram launches its attacks from difficult terrain, like forests, mountains, and swamps, where regular armies struggle to intervene effectively. “This security vacuum is the space in which Boko Haram’s parallel governance and illicit economy thrive, making the crisis a truly regional one that no single country can solve alone,” Richard Atimniraye Nyelade from Ottawa University wrote in the Conversation. “The result is a conflict system that crosses borders, mixes ideology with profit, and outlasts purely military responses.” Climate-related insecurity is also fueling herder and farmer conflicts in southern Chad, where land and water scarcity, climate degradation, and population growth are intensifying competition for natural resources, Amnesty International explained. A new Amnesty International report described seven episodes of violence between herders and farmers between 2022 and 2024 that left at least 98 people dead and more than 100 injured, and destroyed more than 600 homes in four provinces. According to the report, higher temperatures, desertification, and shrinking pasturelands in central Chad pushed herders to settle in southern provinces, where grazing conditions are better, JURISTnews explained. Farmers, facing declining soil fertility and seeking to expand cultivated areas, often encroach on herders’ corridors, restricting access to pastures and water. Many clashes, like one in Sandana in February 2022, are triggered by herders’ cattle entering farmland. “We have lost everything: our fields, our houses, our animals,” a victim in Sandana told Amnesty International. The report added that many clashes are fueled by “neo-herders” – military leaders and entrepreneurs who buy large herds. Amnesty also warned that weak government responses, with authorities intervening too late or not at all, and widespread impunity for perpetrators are increasing tensions and driving reprisal attacks. Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, in eastern Chad, eight-year-old Mousa Bakr, a Sudanese refugee from el-Fasher, plays football with a sock ball while staying at the Tine transit refugee camp. Mousa escaped the ongoing conflict in Sudan between the government-aligned Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which created the world’s worst displacement crisis. More than four million Sudanese have fled to neighboring countries since the start of the civil war in April 2023, including 1.2 million to Chad. Tens of thousands more are believed to be waiting to enter eastern Chad, where about a third of the country’s 21 million people already need humanitarian assistance, Al Jazeera reported. The large number of refugees has exacerbated competition for food, shelter, and water, leading to occasional disputes between refugees and locals over dwindling supplies. The influx has driven down wages, especially in domestic work, doubled rents, and worsened unemployment and poverty, in turn increasing crime, insecurity, and xenophobia, with many residents blaming newcomers for rising costs and scarce jobs, the International Crisis Group explained. “Even before the 2023 violence, Chad was struggling with shortages of health workers, hospitals, and supplies,” Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Idris explained. “The arrival of hundreds of thousands since then has exerted significant pressure on a system that was almost grinding to a halt.”

Rwanda-Backed M23 Rebels To Withdraw From Strategic City

Rwanda-backed M23 Rebels to Withdraw from Strategic City, One Week After Seizing It Democratic Republic of the Congo / Rwanda Rwanda-backed M23 rebels will withdraw from the strategic eastern Congolese town of Uvira after seizing it last week, the group announced Tuesday, a move framed as a response to US mediation and a test of fragile peace efforts aimed at halting renewed escalation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Al Jazeera reported. Corneille Nangaa, leader of the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) rebel coalition that includes M23, said fighters would leave Uvira in South Kivu province “as per United States mediation request.” The coalition described the withdrawal as a “unilateral trust-building measure” intended to give the Doha peace process – referring to the Qatari-mediated peace negotiations between the DRC and M23 – “the maximum chance to succeed.” It called on “guarantors of the peace process” to ensure the town’s demilitarization, protect civilians and infrastructure, and monitor the ceasefire through the deployment of a neutral force. However, reports from the strategic town suggested that fighters were still visible in Uvira. The AFC reportedly warned that the Congolese army and its allies had previously “exploited similar withdrawals to retake territory and target civilians perceived as sympathetic to the rebels.” The seizure of Uvira last week dealt a blow to a US-brokered peace agreement signed days earlier in Washington, DC, by Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, as well as to a separate framework agreement reached in November in Doha between M23 and the Congolese government. Located on the shores of Lake Tanganyika, Uvira is a key administrative and military hub and lies on a central trade corridor bordering Burundi, whose forces have operated in eastern Congo for years, the Financial Times wrote. The advance heightened fears of regional spillover and the exacerbation of a humanitarian crisis that has already displaced more than 200,000 people in South Kivu this month. Thousands of Congolese troops, allied militias, and soldiers retreated as M23 forces advanced under drone and artillery fire. Several hundred Burundian soldiers were reported killed, and nearly 1,000 captured. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Rwanda of a “clear violation of the Washington Accords” and said the United States would “take action to ensure promises made to the president are kept.” Rwanda has repeatedly denied backing M23 and claimed its forces crossed into Congo only for “defensive” reasons. It accused Kinshasa and its allies of repeated ceasefire violations. Analysts noted that the Uvira offensive and subsequent withdrawal pledge reflected “a negotiating tactic” by M23 to gain leverage in talks, underscoring how easily recent diplomatic gains could unravel.

Guinea-Bissau's Fake Coup?

Fake Coup? For Guinea-Bissau’s Voters, Only Time Will Tell Guinea-Bissau On Nov. 26, a coup rocked Guinea-Bissau. It was the latest in a string of nine attempted or successful military takeovers in the small West African nation of two million people. Yet some observers are skeptical about why the event took place in the former Portuguese colony, or if it was even a coup at all. “It is still too early to know the true intentions of Guinea-Bissau’s putschists,” wrote the Economist. As the BBC reported, army officers arrested President Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Afterward, they gave an address on state television announcing how they were now in control. But they also suggested that they plotted to take over because “unnamed politicians” who had ”the support of a well-known drug baron” were attempting to “destabilize” the country. Guinea-Bissau has become a hub for cocaine trafficking in the past 20 years. As the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime explained, the country arguably is Africa’s first narco-state. The military junta leader, Gen. Horta Inta-A, has vowed to crack down on the drugs and the corruption that the drug trade fosters, according to Bloomberg Television. Meanwhile, opposition leaders immediately questioned whether Embaló was behind the so-called coup, the New York Times wrote. They speculated that the president might have put the general in power in order to freeze electoral politics, leaving the current government in place, where Embaló might run things from behind the scenes. Nigeria’s former president said he believes the ousting of Guinea-Bissau’s president was staged. Goodluck Jonathan, who led a team of election observers from the West African Elders Forum to Guinea-Bissau, said the incident “was not a coup,” and noted how it was Embaló who first announced his own overthrow, an unusual move. Embaló had called France 24 and said: “I have been deposed.” Plenty of developments support this view. The coup took place a day before the results of the Nov. 23 presidential vote were expected to be announced. Guinea-Bissauan election officials said the junta took the ballots, confiscated computers, and destroyed other materials related to the elections, rendering the ballot moot, reported Al Jazeera. Inta-A vowed to transition to a new government in a year. In the meantime, he appointed a new cabinet of politicians and officials linked to Embaló. Also, among the military junta’s first acts was arresting Domingos Simões Pereira, an opposition leader who had been barred from running for office. Pereira is now closely allied with Fernando Dias, the opposition presidential candidate who threatened to unseat Embaló in the Nov. 23 election. Dias has since sought asylum in the Nigerian embassy in the capital of Bissau, added Africa News. Embaló is now in Brazzaville, the capital of the Republic of Congo, noted Reuters. It wasn’t clear what his plans are or whether he might be invited back. Regardless, analyst Ryan Cummings of Signal Risk consultancy in South Africa told Al Jazeera that Embaló’s past moves support claims of a sham coup that could see him reinstated by the military government. But, he added, it is also “highly plausible” that the military acted alone to avoid a deadlock in a country where about 70 percent of the 2.2 million population is poor. “There have been growing concerns that longstanding disputes between Embaló and (the opposition) had forced Guinea-Bissau into a political deadlock which has been detrimental to the socioeconomic trajectory of the country,” he said. Reaction among voters, however, has been mixed, with some praising the army and hoping for an orderly transition and others criticizing coup leaders. “I am not against the military regime as long as they improve the living conditions in the country,” Suncar Gassama told the BBC, while another voter, Mohamed Sylla, said he was unhappy about the situation: “This doesn’t help anyone because it puts the country into chaos.”

Rebels Push Into Strategic Eastern Congolese City

Rebels Push Into Strategic Eastern Congolese City, Threatening US-Brokered Peace Deal Democratic Republic of the Congo / Rwanda Rwanda-backed M23 rebels advanced into the strategic eastern Congolese city of Uvira on Wednesday, threatening to upend a recent US-brokered peace agreement and marking a major escalation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) long-running conflict, Al Jazeera reported. The militia pushed into the city this week as part of a new offensive, with the United Nations saying around 200,000 people were displaced and scores of civilians have been killed in recent days, reported Reuters. The rebel coalition that includes M23 claimed the city had been “liberated,” while Burundian officials countered that Uvira “has not yet fallen.” Uvira, located in the South Kivu province near the border with Burundi, has served as the headquarters of the Congo-appointed government and its regional military base after the provincial capital, Bukavu, fell to M23 earlier this year. Observers warned that its capture would open the way for M23 to expand its control beyond South Kivu. The surge in fighting comes less than a week after Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame signed a peace deal in Washington, DC that would require Rwanda to halt support for armed groups. But both countries have accused each other of violating the agreement, with Kinshasa urging Washington to expand sanctions targeting Rwandan officials to “restore the credibility” of the mediation effort. Rwanda has denied backing M23 and blamed Congolese forces for attacks that preceded the new clashes. It has also accused Burundi of escalating hostilities, claiming it has deployed up to 20,000 troops in South Kivu “in the service of the government of DRC.” The Burundian government has not responded to the allegations. Meanwhile, the International Contact Group for the Great Lakes – an informal monitoring group that includes the US and the European Union – said the renewed M23 offensive “has a destabilizing potential for the whole region.” Amid the ongoing fighting, the DRC government has been negotiating separately with the armed groups in Qatar. Last month, the two sides signed a framework agreement aimed at ending violence in the resource-rich east. Despite the escalation, M23 leader Bertrand Bisimwa reiterated support for Qatari-led negotiations, saying there was “no other solution” than returning to the table.

ICC Sentences Sudan Militia To @0 Years For Atrocities In Dafur

ICC Sentences Sudan Militia Leader to 20 Years for Atrocities in Darfur Darfur / Sudan The International Criminal Court (ICC) on Tuesday in a landmark case sentenced a Janjaweed militia leader to 20 years in jail for atrocities committed over two decades ago in Sudan’s Darfur region, Anadolu Agency reported. Ali Muhammad Ali Abd al-Rahman, known as Ali Kushayb, was found guilty in October on 27 counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in Darfur, Sudan, between August 2003 and April 2004. The counts include torture, rape, and murder. Kushayb, 76, had originally argued that the charges were a case of mistaken identity, but the court rejected his defense, the BBC added. “(Abd al-Rahman) not only gave the orders which led directly to the crimes but … also personally perpetrated some of them,” presiding Judge Joanna Korner told the court. Kushayb was a key leader of the Janjaweed, a government-backed militia that terrorized the Darfur region and killed hundreds of thousands of people two decades ago. The court noted that it would have imposed a tougher sentence if not for certain mitigating factors, such as his age and his voluntary surrender. The time Kushayb spent in detention since surrendering in June 2020 will be deducted from his term. However, the court emphasized that it only gave these elements “limited weight” in selecting the appropriate sentence. The sentence represents a historic moment for the ICC, as he is the first person to be tried for crimes perpetrated in Sudan. There are still outstanding warrants for other Sudanese officials. The 2003-2020 conflict in Darfur erupted after the then-government of Sudan mobilized the mostly Arab Janjaweed militias to stop an armed revolt by rebels from Black African ethnic groups, who accused the state of marginalizing them. Human rights groups have alleged that the violence that followed amounted to genocide and ethnic cleansing against the non-Arabic population in the region. Darfur is currently a battleground for the civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces – the latter originating from the Janjaweed. According to the United Nations, the conflict has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

Nigeria Secures The Release Of 100 Abducted School Children

Nigeria Secures Release of 100 Abducted Schoolchildren Nigeria Nigerian authorities secured the release of 100 schoolchildren who were abducted from a Catholic school in central Nigeria last month in one of the country’s worst mass kidnappings in its history, Reuters reported. According to the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), 303 students and 12 staff were kidnapped on Nov. 21 from St Mary’s Catholic school in Papiri. While 50 students escaped within hours, the whereabouts of the other children and staff members remained unknown. The president’s national security advisor said it was not clear when the children would be reunited with their families, while Bishop Bulus Dauwa Yohanna, in charge of the school, said he thinks authorities need time to process the students and provide support before organizing a formal handover, the BBC noted. The kidnapping at St Mary’s Catholic school was the latest incident in a wave of mass abductions that has been sweeping the West African country, where schools and places of worship have been increasingly targeted. Days before the St Mary’s attack, two people were killed and 38 abducted in an assault on the Christ Apostolic Church in Kwara state. A day before that, two people died, and 25 Muslim students were abducted from a girls’ secondary school in Kebbi state. All those kidnapped in those two instances have since been released. While it is unclear who is behind these abductions, analysts think they were carried out by criminal gangs looking for ransom payments. Meanwhile, a presidential spokesman previously told the BBC that the state thinks jihadist groups are responsible for the attacks. And even though paying ransom has been outlawed in the country in an effort to curb funding for kidnap gangs, it is widely believed that the money is still often paid. Nigeria’s security crisis gained international attention after US President Donald Trump threatened to cut off aid and send the military into Nigeria “guns-a-blazing” if the government does not halt what he described as “the killing of Christians.” Analysts, however, argue that members of all faiths in Nigeria are targeted by this violence indiscriminately.

Mali-Jihadists Make Gains

Mali Is ‘On Edge’ as Jihadists Make Gains Mali Islamic militants affiliated with the terrorist group al Qaeda are making significant gains in their attempt to seize the Malian capital of Bamako. Called Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, or JNIM, the militants have surrounded much of the city, already extracting taxes from residents of areas they control. They have pledged to inaugurate a harsh, orthodox version of their religion if they win control of the landlocked country in West Africa, reported France 24. “Bamako is on edge,” the French broadcaster said. Having cut its ties with France, the country’s former colonial power, as well as the Economic Community of West African States, the leaders of Mali’s military junta have sought help from Niger and Russia, who have sent fuel and soldiers to protect tanker convoys that JNIM militants attack, wrote Africanews. Russian influence is especially growing in the region, noted the Robert Lansing Institute. As a result, years after the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraqi forces reclaimed territory formerly held by the Islamic State in 2017, jihadists are on the brink of taking over Mali. JNIM’s fuel blockage strategy has proved particularly effective in showing the junta’s powerlessness to protect its people, contended the Soufan Center, a non-profit research organization. The fuel blockade has disrupted industry, closed schools, spiked prices, and led to long lines at the pumps. Mali has suffered military coups in 2012, 2020, and 2021. The last one four years ago that brought the current government to power occurred because coup leaders said the prior government was ineffective at dealing with the security situation. In July, Malian lawmakers gave Gen. Assimi Goïta a five-year presidential term. His term is renewable without elections, the BBC added. That broke another junta promise to return quickly to civilian rule. Instead, Goïta has sought to assert his authority, far and wide. He reached a deal, for instance, with Canada-based Barrick Mining over a dispute over a gold mine the Malian leader said was only benefiting the extraction company, Business Insider Africa reported. The company will pay Mali $430 million, while the company will be able to keep pulling the precious metal out of the ground. Goïta has launched Operation Fuka Kènè, “clearing” in the local Bambara language, to stop the JNIM militants, but its progress has been slow, according to the Africa Report. On Nov. 18, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres told the UN Security Council that, if Mali falls, “a disastrous domino effect” could unfurl across the region as other jihadist groups, for example in Niger and Burkina Faso, become more emboldened, the Atlantic Council noted. JNIM’s pressure in recent months appears to be taking its toll on the government. This summer, the junta arrested as many as 50 officers, including two generals, for destabilizing “institutions of the republic.” Goïta also blamed foreign interference: A French national caught in the roundup allegedly was working “on behalf of the French intelligence service” to destabilize the country. But analysts say the country is already deeply destabilized and will likely see more turmoil, particularly for Goïta, whose coalition of support is still strong but faltering. “These tensions are unfolding against a backdrop of growing isolation for the ruling figures in the military and continued setbacks against JNIM’s jihadists,” wrote World Politics Review. “Years after taking control in the 2020 coup, the junta has failed to fulfill its central promise of restoring security. Instead, the situation has only worsened, with JNIM gaining ground even in the country’s heretofore largely peaceful south, around Bamako. (With) a general deterioration in security and economic conditions, it is unclear how long the junta can maintain this popular support.”