Ethiopia And Eritrea Are Playing A Dangerous Game

Ethiopia and Eritrea Are Playing a Dangerous Game of Risk ETHIOPIA/ ERITREA Eritrea and Ethiopia Earlier this month, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed that his country’s neighbor, Eritrea, was sending arms to rebels in Ethiopia’s Amhara region. Abiy has similarly accused Eritrea of supporting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a once-dominant political force that fought a two-year war with the Ethiopian government. Eritrean leaders immediately denied the allegations and accused Ethiopia of “floating false flags to justify the war that it has been itching to unleash for two long years.” Now, the danger is that two trigger-happy leaders could easily ignite a war that engulfs the entire Horn of Africa and beyond. “(Ethiopia’s) recent history serves as a cautionary tale, revealing how quickly so-called peace can unravel,” wrote the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin, Germany. “Eritrea, a pariah state and a daunting diplomatic challenge, remains a dangerous spoiler in the region. The Horn of Africa is already on the verge of collapse…” Eritrea was formerly part of the Ethiopian empire. After decades of fighting, the country won its independence in 1993, cutting off landlocked Ethiopia’s only access to the Red Sea. Another war between the two erupted five years later. The peace deal that Abiy brokered to end that conflict in 2018 earned him the Nobel Peace Prize. Since then, Eritrea aided Ethiopia in a brutal two-year civil war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as the Council on Foreign Relations explained. But Abiy excluded Eritrea from the 2022 peace deal that ended that fighting, effectively snubbing his neighbor, and leaving it feeling betrayed. Now Abiy is further alienating Eritrea by claiming that his country must control the Eritrean port of Assab, which is 40 miles from the Ethiopian border. Abiy insists he has “no intention of going to war with Eritrea.” “On the contrary, we are convinced that this issue can be resolved peacefully,” he said. However, he added, “Ethiopia’s request for access to the sea is irreversible.” Abiy is framing the port issue as vital to Ethiopia’s economy and security, according to London School of Economics’ Ruth Otim in a blog post. The Ethiopian leader has made similar arguments about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which produces energy vital to the country but also threatens Egypt’s access to Nile water, noted the Reporter, an English-language publication that covers Ethiopia. Meanwhile, the TPLF said the accusations of collusion with Eritrea are “unfounded” and part of a “smear campaign”: Ethiopia is presenting “a dangerous inversion of reality,” in an “attempt to portray the aggressor as the victim and the victims as the aggressor.” Despite the denials and fighting in the civil war on opposite sides, Eritrea and Tigrayans have been working together since a split in the TPLF in 2023: That is when one faction led by the head of the interim administration of Tigray, Getachew Reda, allied with Abiy and the other led by TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael reject such a move, turning to Eritrea for support, in spite of the atrocities it committed in Tigray. For years, Abiy has been at war with other groups within his own border, which is threatening the frail unity of Ethiopia. For example, the government has been fighting insurgents in Oromia, Amhara and Somali Region. Along with the splinter Tigrayan group, Eritrea has been supporting the Fano rebels in Oromia and possibly other rebels. Meanwhile, Eritrea has also strengthened relations with Egypt recently, with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi recently giving his “firm commitment to supporting Eritrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Egypt is currently at odds with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. All of this is putting Ethiopia in a weak position, say analysts. “The (Ethiopian) forces are not ready for a new war, and Ethiopia is isolated in the region,” Ethiopia-based analyst Zehirun Hailu told World Politics Review, adding that in addition to tensions with Egypt and Eritrea, Ethiopia’s relations with Somalia remain complicated. “In this context, a new war would be disastrous.” Then there is the Sudan factor, say analysts, noting how the country is being pulled apart in a civil war supported by a number of foreign players, each with their own interests. Now, analysts say Sudan’s rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF), with the help of the United Arab Emirates, are opening a new base of operations in the Benishangul-Gumuz region of Ethiopia, near the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on Sudan’s eastern border. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently accused Ethiopia of hosting, arming, and otherwise supporting the RSF. Since November, there has been an increase in suspected Emirati-linked weapons shipments and mercenary deployments to Ethiopia intended for the RSF. Eritrea, meanwhile, has been training SAF militias, as part of its security alliance with the Sudanese government. Analysts say Ethiopia’s growing involvement in Sudan’s civil war may lead to the SAF cooperating again with Eritrean-backed rebels in Ethiopia: Sudan’s government supported the TPLF during the Tigray war. “Ethiopia’s involvement in the civil war threatens to ignite already simmering tensions with neighboring Eritrea and Egypt in ways that could engulf the region and rapidly spread across the Red Sea,” wrote Cameron Hudson, a former US State Department official, and Liam Karr of the American Enterprise Institute in Foreign Policy. “Ethiopia’s entry could be just the pretext Eritrea’s Machiavellian strongman, Isaias Afwerki, needs to restart conflict with (Ethiopia)…Isaias sees Sudan as a proxy battlefield for his unresolved tensions with Ethiopia and has already capitalized on the war to deepen his ties to Sudan.” “The Red Sea region has already become one of the most hotly contested areas on Earth in recent months and years,” they added. “If Ethiopia emerges as a new front in Sudan’s civil war, this would exacerbate the world’s largest humanitarian and refugee crisis…threaten international commerce and would create opportunities for a host of malign actors, ranging from Russia and Iran to al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Houthis.”