Central Africa Republic's Election Underscores Wobbly Stability

Central African Republic’s Election Underscores a Wobbly Stability CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Central African Republic Recently, the top US adviser for Africa, Massad Boulos, was invited to visit the Central African Republic for talks on military and diplomatic partnerships as well as investment opportunities, particularly in the mining sector. The Central African Republic has significant reserves of untapped but critical minerals that include diamonds, gold, uranium and rare earth elements, which have long interested Russia, China, the US and others. Beyond wanting to dislodge Chinese and Russian influence, analysts say US interest also reflects growing stability in the Central African Republic since 2021, when rebel militias nearly captured the capital, Bangui. The country also held a successful and relatively violence-free election in December, they add. Even so, some are questioning whether the progress the country has made is sustainable. “For many residents (…), the ballot carried the promise of normalcy, or at least continuity, in a region long starved of both,” the UN wrote. “That promise, however, remains elusive.” Since gaining independence from France in 1960, the Central African Republic, one of the poorest countries in the world, has experienced decades of violence and instability, including six coups. In 2013, the country saw an explosion of fighting when predominantly Muslim Séléka rebels seized power, taking over Bangui and ousting President François Bozizé. Christian Anti-balaka militias fought back, with mobs burning mosques and killing Muslims by decapitating and dismembering them. The violence went on sporadically, intensifying and spreading in 2018 after a period of relative calm as armed groups battled over areas rich in gold, diamonds, uranium and other minerals. Thousands died in the fighting, with hundreds of thousands displaced by the conflict in the country of about 5 million. Soon after, President Faustin-Archange Touadera hired Russian mercenaries from the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group, who prevented those groups from taking control of Bangui in 2021 – after six of 14 armed groups vying for control withdrew from a 2019 peace agreement. Since then, the Russian mercenaries have served as personal bodyguards for Touadera, playing a key role in propping him up in the guise of helping him defeat rebel groups: The group reportedly wrote the text of the constitutional referendum that removed term limits, which would allow the president to remain in power indefinitely, Le Monde reported. It also helped him win the referendum with 95 percent of the vote, aided by a Russian disinformation campaign, the French publication added. Still, the elections held late last year were a major accomplishment and a sign of stability, analysts say. Voters cast their ballots for candidates running for presidential, legislative, regional and municipal offices. Touadera won a third term in a landslide, garnering 78 percent of the vote. However, it was not a vote to be held up as a model of democracy, said critics, who complained the election was marked by fraud and meddling, reported the Associated Press. Election authorities rejected the opposition’s appeals. The Republican Bloc for the Defense of the Constitution, the main opposition party, boycotted the vote, added Al Jazeera. Meanwhile, as the capital remains relatively peaceful, guarded by a mix of Russian mercenaries and UN peacekeepers, violence continues to spread across the country, fueled by rebels, government forces and other militants, wrote Human Rights Watch. Abduction, the forcible recruitment of children as soldiers, sexual violence and attacks against civilians are still rampant. The proximity of the civil war in neighboring Sudan has also concerned aid officials, who worry that fighting might spill over the border or that Sudanese migrants fleeing war might destabilize the country further. “There is no fence, no physical barrier marking the end of one country and the beginning of the other – just a dried-up riverbed spanning the invisible line drawn on maps,” said UN officials. Already thousands of refugees are making their way to a “fractured country still piecing itself back together,” they added. For example, Birao, a northern town on the border with Sudan, now hosts more than 27,000 Sudanese refugees – an overwhelming number for a community of about 18,000, UN officials say. There, tensions have occasionally flared between refugees and local residents. More recently, a militia that the Wagner Group recruited, trained and armed to fight rebels and Fulani pastoralists – largely Muslim nomadic cattle herders – turned against the government. Separately, fighting has flared in the remote southeastern Haut-Mbomou area since late December between government forces backed by Russian mercenaries and the Azandé Ani Kpi Gbè militia, a community self-defense force from the Azandé ethnic group. The unrest comes as Russia seeks to replace the Wagner Group with its Africa Corps, which would assume a training role only, a shift that would cost the country a fortune – it currently pays with minerals – and could jeopardize the president and the government’s hold on power. Fulbert Ngodji, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told World Politics Review that the progress is mainly that no province is currently controlled by armed groups. But he added that this is a mixed blessing, while noting that it is unclear whether the situation will remain stable. “These (armed) groups, which live off violence through looting or mining exploitation, have not genuinely disarmed and continue to pose a threat,” he said. “In some regions, the army has become the main source of insecurity (and violence).”