South Africa: Drying Up

SOUTH AFRICA

Drying Up

Due to the worst drought in over a century, rapid climate change and a swelling population, Cape Town is expected to run out of water in less than three months, USA Today reported.

At the same time, people across South Africa are speculating about the future of their country as President Jacob Zuma’s well of political influence dries up, too.

On Tuesday morning, after a marathon overnight meeting, the ANC decided the president should quit, the Associated Press reported. So far, he has refused. If he continues to resist, the party could tell its lawmakers to use their majority in parliament to vote him out of office.

Zuma gave in to judicial pressure last month and announced that an investigation would be opened into his role in the powerful Gupta brothers’ alleged influence peddling, Reuters reported.

The wealthy Guptas are accused of having doled out government posts to those who could bend state decisions in favor of their business practices, and the judicial inquiry will evaluate whether the Guptas may have received special treatment over a coal business linked to one of Zuma’s sons, wrote Bloomberg.

Zuma is already accused of hundreds of counts of corruption. He and the Guptas have denied any wrongdoing.

Even so, Zuma’s giving in to external pressures is enough to signal he’s on the outs.

That was only confirmed by his party’s recent election of Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the ANC. Ramaphosa vowed to spearhead the fight against corruption during his inaugural speech in December, AFP reported.

Leaders’ actions “should always be a source of pride and not a cause for embarrassment,” he said – a statement that was quickly interpreted as a snub to Zuma.

With two spheres of power within the ANC, analysts say Ramaphosa quickly needs to deal with Zuma if his party wants to keep its absolute majority in parliament come election time next year.

Pressure is on for Zuma to resign, and it’s likely he will before he’s termed out in 2019, Bloomberg reported. The trick is to do so without uprooting Zuma’s vast network of supporters, which could crumble South Africa’s fragile political system and economy.

“If you have to remove him, you have to dismantle a very complex system (and) that cannot be done overnight,” said Ralph Mathekga, an independent political analyst based in Johannesburg. “Ramaphosa is being diplomatic and rightfully so. He cannot come out in public and say that there are plans to remove Zuma.”

But such speculation has actually boosted Ramaphosa’s – and the economy’s – standing, CNBC reported: Markets reacted positively after Ramaphosa’s election to party chair, and the politically sensitive rand grows nominally stronger every time there’s a rumor of Zuma’s ouster.

Even so, cantankerous external factors rocking stability in South Africa – aside from water issues, electricity can be scarce and unemployment is high – could be exacerbated if Zuma leaves in a messy manner.

“South Africa is approaching rough waters, and a Jacob Zuma facing an inglorious and humiliating end to his presidency will be a Jacob Zuma at his most dangerous,” Roger Southall wrote for the Conversation.

Meanwhile, what happens in South Africa matters, says the Financial Times.

“In the post-apartheid era, South Africa became the informal spokesman for a continent,” it wrote. “The drama of South Africa’s recent history and the sophistication of its economy means that it inevitably has become a standard-bearer for Africa.”