Ethiopia: The Road Less Traveled

ETHIOPIA

The Road Less Traveled

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned out of the blue last week in an attempt to ease the nation into political reforms demanded by parts of the electorate after years of unrest.

The move is unprecedented in Ethiopia. Political transitions in the continent’s second-most-populous nation and East Africa’s fastest-growing economy have been marred by coup, Marxist rebellion and dictatorial takeover.

That means Hailemariam’s voluntary resignation could put Ethiopia on a political road less traveled, but only if a successor comes to power who represents the interests of the nation’s two most numerous ethnic groups, Bloomberg reported.

Ethnic Oromo and Amhara peoples make up some 61 percent of Ethiopia’s population, but say they have been politically, economically and socially marginalized for decades, Al Jazeera reported.

The political parties of the two groups are in a catch-all coalition government that comprises the entirety of the Ethiopian parliament, but they’ve been denied prized cabinet posts by the Tigray minority, which makes up 6 percent of the electorate. Though small, the Tigray have dominated Ethiopian politics since spearheading the uprising against Ethiopia’s communist regime in 1991, Stratfor reported.

For years, the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization was thought to be controlled by the Tigray camp, but it’s molded itself into a type of opposition movement with the rise of a series of charismatic politicians seeking to wrest back control, the Economist wrote.

The Oromo and Amhara began rebelling in 2015. Despite crackdowns in which hundreds were killed and thousands arrested – resulting in a state of emergency that lasted for the better part of a year – the government ultimately caved into pressure, agreeing last month to release thousands of political prisoners.

“The pressure from the popular movements and also the reformist members of the ruling coalition forced the resignation to come early,” Befekadu Hailu, an Ethiopian writer and activist, told Al Jazeera.

Now at a crossroads, the government must make a choice between an elite successor, or one who could respond to the needs of protesters without silencing them through violent means, Reuters reported.

“Whoever replaces him (Hailemariam) has to have in mind a transition,” said former opposition lawmaker Girma Seifu. “Otherwise it will only be a false start.”

But with a government still divided, it might be the case that Hailemariam’s successor can’t address protesters’ grievances quickly enough, Stratfor wrote, only exacerbating instability.

Regardless, the very fact that a transition in power came without bloodshed or forced resignation – as was the case last week in South Africa – is a start.