Egypt's Election-A House of Cards

A House of Cards: Egypt’s ‘Managed Democracy’ Rests on an Unstable Foundation Egypt When Egyptians go to the polls from Nov. 10-11, they will be choosing their legislators in an election that holds few surprises because the government led by President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has cracked down on the opposition. Even so, the election is significant, say analysts, because it is the last one before el-Sissi concludes his third and final term in 2030. That means the new parliament will set the direction for the country after el-Sissi. Most aren’t optimistic that things will change. “(The election) will either pave the way for a constitutional amendment that would extend Sisi’s term or prepare the ground for a post-Sisi political transition,” wrote Egyptian lawyer Halem Henish of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy. “For this reason, these legislative elections represent a pivotal political moment for Egypt – one that exposes the underlying structure of the country’s political system, its relationship with society, and the deepening consolidation of authoritarian rule.” The elections are taking place in a tightly controlled political environment, after years of a government crackdown on dissent, political parties, and restrictions on the opposition and the media. Since 2013, political parties have been either dissolved or co-opted, while independent opposition candidates have faced imprisonment, harassment, or exile. Still, in the past two elections, it allowed a token opposition. But not this time. Just weeks before the vote, Egypt’s government disqualified an opposition legislator, Haitham al-Hariri, marking a turning point: The government is no longer even maintaining the pretense of limited political competition that it once did, analysts say. Al-Hariri was disqualified based on a new interpretation of the military service law that now labels those individuals who were “excluded” from military service as “draft evaders.” He told Egypt’s Mada Masr that the ruling party is now in effect sentencing him to “political death” simply because his father was a well-known opposition figure. As a result, the US-based risk analysis firm RANE predicted the elections will produce a parliament that offers “almost no checks and balances” to the executive branch but instead will be a rubber stamp. Meanwhile, past voting patterns suggest the results are already predetermined. Turnout is expected to mirror the Senate elections in August, when just 17 percent of voters participated – a level the Associated Press reported reflected voter frustrations over Egypt’s stagnant economy, with voters grappling with record inflation, seeing rising costs for food, fuel, and other necessities. Egypt is also struggling with a sliding pound and more than $160 billion in foreign debt. Instead of addressing the cost of living, however, in the August elections, the government sought to push patriotic propaganda. The Middle East Monitor observed scenes of voters singing and dancing outside polling stations, describing them as a state-encouraged spectacle rather than a genuine outburst of enthusiasm by voters. “The ruling Egyptian regime is seeking to project an image that contradicts reality, amid notably low voter participation,” it said. What Egypt is perfecting is managed democracy, say analysts, using the courts the government has brought under its control to disqualify opposition politicians, to control parliament, and to create the illusion of democracy. As a result, they add, the vote is about consolidating authority before 2030. Meanwhile, Egypt’s elections are watched globally. Home to 116 million people and a linchpin of Middle East stability, Egypt receives more US military aid than any country except Israel – not because of its resources, but because instability here destabilizes a region that stretches from Libya to Gaza. The European Union has poured billions into Egypt to prevent migration flows that could dwarf the 2015 crisis, making these elections a test case for how much authoritarianism the West will tolerate from strategically vital allies. The real question is whether el-Sissi will extend his rule or hand-pick a successor. Most analysts believe that even if el-Sissi leaves office, little will change: The military will still be the power behind the president, and who runs the country will likely be decided by the military. Parliament will just go through the motions, and the state control over the judiciary, the press, the public, and the opposition will continue. Still, as Yezid Sayigh of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut wrote, the regime is being built on a house of cards that is becoming more unstable. “Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi is building a new republic defined by a social ethos of ‘nothing for free,’ a new form of state capitalism, and hyper-presidential powers set within a military guardianship that secures his regime but leaves it unable to resolve political, economic, and social challenges,” he said. “Only repeated massive injections of capital by external partners have kept the regime from failing dramatically, but this has enabled it to maintain public policies and investment strategies that have exacerbated economic problems and left it ill-equipped to confront future challenges.”