An Old African Leader Declines To Step Down

The Art of Gaslighting Guinea-Bissau Speaking at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan recently, Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embaló detailed his government’s “strategic actions” to mitigate the impacts of climate change on his Portuguese-speaking nation. These measures, he said, according to Voice of America, include growing mangroves to blunt rising sea levels and halt ecological degradation. They are crucial, he added, because climate changes are becoming extremely dangerous for Guinea-Bissau. Residents such as 70-year-old Aghoti Sanhan, can attest to that. “The sea keeps coming toward us,” Sanhan told the World Economic Forum recently. “The fields have been ruined by the seawater. (The) land is getting smaller and many people have abandoned the village. One day, I will have to make a decision to abandon this house, too.” Sanhan’s house lacks electricity and running water, a common problem in the Atlantic coastal nation even though the World Bank determined that Guinea-Bissau possesses the “highest natural capital per capita in West Africa,” meaning lots of untapped potential given its natural resources. Inadequate infrastructure, dependence on agriculture, the exposure of low-lying coastal areas to climate change risks, organized crime – the country is a key transit hub for illegal narcotics from Latin America to Europe – the suppression of civil society, and political issues are among the obstacles to positive change, the institution wrote. Illustrating the situation was the president’s recent decision to postpone parliamentary elections indefinitely. As Agence France-Presse wrote, Embaló dissolved parliament in December 2023 after what he described as a failed coup attempt. Afterward, he scheduled new elections for Nov. 24 this year. But just weeks before the elections, he scrapped them. That turn of events was the latest in a history of corruption, coups, and other disruptions in the country, World Politics Review noted. Not having a parliament might make Embaló’s life easier. He was elected in late 2019 to govern for a five-year term. Remarkably, aiming to quell accusations that he is trying to consolidate his power to remain in office indefinitely, Embaló has pledged not to run for reelection when his term ends, Africa News reported. However, since elections were legally supposed to be held this year and he’s canceled them, that means little, wrote Deutsche Welle, adding that it is likely he will actually run again. The president’s actions may not be a bad thing if he uses the extra time to improve the country’s institutions, especially the judiciary, argued Paulin Maurice Toupane of the Institute for Security Studies. But he added that it could increase instability and backfire on the presidents. Others, however, believe that the country is headed for another coup. Alex Vines, the Africa director at Chatham House, told Inkstick earlier this year that the “failure of security sector reform, penetration of organized crime and the absence of credible institutions” are continuing to increase instability in Guinea-Bissau. “Under Mr. Embaló’s increasingly authoritarian rule, further clampdowns on opposition leaders should be expected – often justified through claims of preserving national security – in the foreseeable future … The dissolution of parliament further highlights the fragility of governability and the risk of a further coup attempt.” Share this story