Nigeria: Ready To Blow?

NIGERIA

Ready to Blow

During British Prime Minister Theresa May’s visit to the Nigerian capital of Abuja last month, her counterpart, President Muhammadu Buhari, vowed to conduct “free, fair and credible elections” in February, when Africa’s most populous nation will elect a new president.

But with the country beset by security problems that have shaken its economy, Buhari is resorting to dangerous tricks in efforts to secure a second term in office, Reuters reported.

The government is reportedly coercing thousands of internally displaced persons to return to ravaged parts of the nation by threatening to cut off their aid – just so they can vote in February’s elections.

The government promises that the security situation has calmed in Nigeria’s north, where armed militant groups like Boko Haram have wreaked havoc for the better part of the past decade.

Reports from the ground say otherwise.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre estimated that 1.7 million Nigerians were internally displaced at the end of 2017.

That’s not only due to the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast, but also to other splinter groups vying for control in the northwest, as well as a turbulent secessionist movement in the south, the New York Times reported.

Buhari, a former military dictator back in the 1980s, was elected president in 2015 on the promise of restoring security. His election marked the first time in Nigeria’s history that an opposition candidate democratically ousted an incumbent of the ruling party, the Associated Press reported.

However, his multiple declarations of victory against insurgent groups haven’t changed the reality on the ground, the Washington Times reported.

This year, more than 21,000 people have been forced from their homes in Zamfara State in the country’s northwest. Officials say more than 2,000 have died from violence there since 2011 – including 400 in July alone.

Perilous situations like these are why security diplomats told Reuters that herding people back to their homes in the north – traditionally a Buhari stronghold – is a “terrible idea.”

“We were deceived,” one returnee to Guzamala in Borno State, the epicenter of Boko Haram violence, told Reuters.

The developments have led to an unprecedented amount of political shuffling over the past few months, the BBC reported. Nigeria’s opposition People’s Democratic Party announced in July a massive 39-party alliance that hopes to oust Buhari.

Dozens of politicians have defected to the opposition from the ruling All Progressives Congress party, including Nigeria’s third-most senior political official, Senate President Bukola Saraki, who announced his candidacy for president late last month. He only joined the ruling party in 2015 to support Buhari’s presidential bid, Nigeria’s Guardian newspaper reported.

Sakari’s defection prompted a standoff in the National Assembly, during which security forces attempted to prevent lawmakers from entering the building, the AP reported.

Foreign investors and governments have become increasingly alarmed at the volatility in Nigeria, the nation’s Vanguard newspaper wrote, which isn’t doing any favors for the nation’s economy.

With so many converging political and security factors, Nigeria’s elections have already become a powder keg ready to blow – with six months left until ballots are cast.

W