Somalia's Al Shabaab Appoints A New Leader

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Somalia's Al Shabaab Appoints a New Leader
August 11, 2011 | 0011 GMT
MOHAMED MOKHTAR/AFP/Getty Images
Al Shabaab military leader Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur
Summary
Unconfirmed reports have said that Somali jihadist group al Shabaab has replaced current leader Ahmad Abdi Godane (also known as Abu Zubayr) with Ibrahim Haji Mead (also known as Ibrahim al-Afghani), a top al Shabaab commander and close associate of Abu Zubayr. Questions have surrounded Abu Zubayr’s leadership for some time and for a variety of reasons, especially among the more nationalist factions of al Shabaab, but his replacement is unlikely to be a vast departure for the militant group. However, al-Afghani will need to court those nationalist factions if he ever hopes to retake the Somali capital of Mogadishu.
Analysis
Somali media reported Aug. 10 that Ahmad Abdi Godane (also known as Abu Zubayr), leader of  Somali jihadist group al Shabaab, has been replaced by Ibrahim Haji Mead (also known as Ibrahim al-Afghani), a top al Shabaab commander who earned his nom de guerre by fighting in Afghanistan and Kashmir. In addition, news agencies in the southern Somali city of Kismayo report that 50 armed pickup trucks, known as “technicals,” were seen leaving Mogadishu toward Kismayo. A STRATFOR source said al-Afghani’s promotion to take Abu Zubayr’s place has not yet been confirmed.
The reports follow al Shabaab’s withdrawal from the Somali capital — the disintegration of the insurgent forces into various factions of al Shabaab and the withdrawal to their respective bases of support — likely seen by many within the group as a failure on the part of Abu Zubayr. Though African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces have proven formidable, the withdrawal was not the first incident that led some in the group to question his leadership. Such questions have existed for some time, especially within al Shabaab factions with a more nationalist agenda, and al-Afghani, like Abu Zubayr, subscribes to a more transnational jihadist ideology. Thus, al-Afghanis appointment is not a dramatic departure in al Shabaab leadership, which will have to reconcile with the more nationalist factions if it ever hopes to retake Mogadishu.
Concerns over Abu Zubayr’s leadership have been longstanding, but elements within the group, especially those with more nationalist ideologies, have grown increasingly critical since September 2010, when a failed offensive on Mogadishu left an estimated hundreds of militants dead. Nationalist constituent clans that had contributed men to the offensive, predominantly the Rahanweyn clan from which rival al Shabaab commander Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur hails, were especially angered after reports surfaced that Abu Zubayr, who had inadequately prepared for the losses his group sustained, ordered wounded al Shabaab members to be killed rather than given medical treatment. Al Shabaab forces were decimated, which, coupled with the ongoing drought and famine (and new AMISOM offensive), precipitated the group’s withdrawal from Mogadishu. It is unlikely, however, that Robow pushed for al-Afghani to replace Abu Zubayr; Abu Zubayr was close to al-Afghani, and Robow would not want to see an Abu Zubayr ally take over the group.
Abu Zubayr’s failure to retain territory in the capital notwithstanding, some al Shabaab constituent clans disagree with Abu Zubayr’s — and now, al-Afghani’s — hard-line stance regarding any foreign presence in the country. Motivated by fear of death and infiltration, Abu Zubayr wanted to block foreign aid workers from coming into the country to provide food to those afflicted by the drought and famine. Some al Shabaab factions openly disagreed with the leader’s request, however, ignoring Abu Zubayr’s requests to block aid and allowing aid organizations to give out food supplies via airdrop in Mogadishu and the surrounding areas for the first time in two years.
In addition, the death of al Qaeda in East Africa head Fazul Abdullah Muhammad on June 11 raised concern about Abu Zubayr’s leadership. There have been rumors that al Shabaab was complicit in his death. In particular, there were rumors about whether Abu Zubayr intentionally or inadvertently provided faulty information to Fazul that led to his death. Though not specifically a point of conflict with nationalist factions of al Shabaab, this unresolved killing led to more questions from transnational elements within al Qaeda over Abu Zubayr’s leadership.
Al-Afghani was a close associate of Abu Zubayr, they both hail from the Isaaq clan, and they both adhere to the transnational jihadist objectives of al Shabaab. The appointment of al-Afghani, therefore, does not mark a significant departure for the Somali militant group, and the nationalist elements within al Shabaab will still have differences that are not likely to be reconciled in the short-term. Technicals reportedly leaving south from Mogadishu likely means that fighters under the command of al-Afghani are retreating to their traditional safe-zone at Kismayo. Notably, the decision to withdraw would have been made regardless of who the leader was. These technicals and fighters will regroup and consolidate, but al-Afghani will have to court the nationalist elements if he has any chance of staging another offensive to retake Mogadishu from AMISOM.
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