SIMON MAINA/AFP/Getty Images
Somali President Sharif Ahmed (L) and African Union Commissioner Jean Ping in Addis Ababa on Aug. 25
Summary
The East African Inter-Governmental Authority on Development concluded its meeting in Addis Ababa on Aug. 25, ahead of a scheduled African Union meeting Aug. 26 during which Ethiopia’s prime minister has promised to propose additional security assistance for Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The assistance is intended to erode jihadist group al Shabaab’s already-weakened position in the country and ensure the obedience of the TFG — of which Addis Ababa is the primary backer — while also limiting the ability of rival Eritrea to assist al Shabaab and thus generate a security threat along Ethiopia’s border.
Analysis
Developments in Somalia were the main topic of discussion during a two-day meeting of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) that concluded Aug. 25 in Addis Ababa. The meeting took place at a time when
al Shabaab, the jihadist group that has plagued Somalia for years, is fractured and disorganized. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said during the conference that the six-nation East African bloc has formed a plan to provide security assistance for Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as the latter attempts to expand aid deliveries into areas no longer under the control of the militant group. The meeting also takes place only a few weeks after Eritrea formally asked to rejoin the regional body, which is currently headed by Ethiopia, Eritrea’s longtime rival.
As the primary patron of Somalia’s TFG, Ethiopia views al Shabaab’s setback as a welcome development, but that does not mean Addis Ababa’s worries are over. Eritrea has provided arms and financial and intelligence assistance to al Shabaab in the past, in order to make trouble for the TFG and, by extension, Ethiopia. If Eritrea decides to ramp up its support and revitalize the militant group, recent gains against al Shabaab could be unraveled. However, if Ethiopia’s proposals on security assistance for the TFG are approved at the African Union meeting Aug. 26, they could limit Eritrea’s influence in the al Shabaab-dominated regions of Somalia. The proposals could also leave the TFG even more beholden to Addis Ababa and reduce the ability of TFG figures to stray from Ethiopia’s preferences.
Ethiopia has been the main supporter of Somalia’s TFG over the course of its existence, militarily intervening in Somalia from 2006-2009 and providing funding and administrative assistance — though Uganda provides the bulk of the troops for the African Union Mission in Somalia. The prospect of spillover violence due to Somalia’s shared border with Ethiopia is one of the main reasons Ethiopia has backed the TFG, but not the only one. The historic concept of a “Greater Somalia” in which all of the territories populated by ethnic Somalis would be united in a single country — to include present-day Somalia, northeastern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia and Djibouti — has been alive since before the colonial period. With approximately 5.5 million ethnic Somalis living in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa is concerned that Somalia could one day use these ethnic linkages to encroach on Ethiopian territory. This does not appear to be an imminent threat, because the Somalian state is currently in disarray. Anarchy is viewed as a bigger security concern than possible Somali territorial ambitions. Still, these ethnic linkages have motivated Ethiopia to take actions to stabilize its southern neighbor and to ensure Mogadishu’s dependency on Addis Ababa.
Somalia has also received a good deal of attention from Eritrea, but for a decidedly different reason. Asmara sees Somalia and its chaotic security environment as a useful tool to keep Ethiopia distracted. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been hostile since the latter seceded to form its own country in 1991. When Eritrea broke off, it took with it a considerable amount of territory, including Ethiopia’s only sea access. When the two states fought a war between 1998 and 2000, Ethiopia retook some of the disputed areas, and to this day Eritrea remains concerned that Addis Ababa may at some point revive its military campaign to retake the whole of its former territory. As a way to counter this potential threat, Eritrea has supported militant movements in Somalia, including al Shabaab, providing the group with arms and funding. A weak and chaotic Somalia helps prevent Ethiopia from focusing its attention on Eritrea.
Al Shabaab’s recent setbacks leave Ethiopia in a strong position at the moment. However, the potential involvement of another player in Somalia has Ethiopia concerned. On Aug. 23, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi visited Mogadishu and held a meeting with Somali President Sharif Ahmed, with Salehi promising that Ahmed will make a reciprocal visit at a later date. Though the stated purpose of the meeting was humanitarian assistance for famine-stricken Somalia, Iran has established ties with Eritrea — it has provided intelligence, military, and financial support to Asmara, and is believed to have smuggled weapons to proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon through these links. Some of this Iranian support likely makes its way to al Shabaab via the Eritrean government.
Addis Ababa is reportedly
unhappy with Ahmed’s performance as president (it has warmer relations with the country’s speaker of parliament, Sharif Hassan), and Ahmed may be worried that Ethiopia is considering abandoning political support for him. The meeting with Salehi could have been used to explore other sources of political backing. In Somalia, former political leaders have few options after they are pushed out of office. They will thus pursue any measure necessary to stay in power, even an unlikely arrangement with Iran, which goes against Somalia’s primary patron’s wishes.
The visit to Mogadishu by the Iranian foreign minister — a representative of a government with known ties to Eritrea — did not go unnoticed in Addis Ababa. Even during the IGAD meeting, Eritrean Deputy Ambassador to the African Union Benyam Berhe was reportedly kicked out by IGAD Secretary-General Mahbub Mualem because Eritrea’s readmission in the group is still being reviewed. This is not a promising sign for future cooperation between Eritrea and the bloc. Regardless whether Eritrea is eventually readmitted to the bloc, Ethiopia will likely use its influence in the IGAD and the African Union to pursue two goals: preventing Asmara from using external support to revitalize al Shabaab, and closing off prospective players such as Iran from expanding their influence in Somalia at Ethiopia’s expense.
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