Dear:
Your Saturday morning
newspaper...things are not nice right now due to Covid-19. Major conferences
have been cancelled including a summit for Asian leaders that President Trump
was supposed to host here. Amazon has banned employees from flying on domestic
and international flights. I'm sure that a lot of other companies all over the
world have quietly done the same. We could see travel bans here including South
Korea, Italy, and Iran.
The only hopeful note here
is that the Israelis say that they have developed a vaccine against Covid-19:
https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/COVID-19-coronavirus-vaccine-Israel-15093659.php
The Israelis have an
incredible pharmaceutical industry. Let us all hope for the best.
One disturbing model has
emerged. This is just a theoretical exercise, but it is food for thought. As of
2017 we had an estimated 7.53 billion people on earth. As of 2020, I have seen
estimates of around 7.8 billion people. In the Coronavirus model that I have
seen, some 33.33% of the world's population will be infected. This means that
an estimated 2.6 billion people will be infected. The projected fatality rate
is 2% of those infected. The number of projected fatalities is 52 million.
On a personal level, everyone
needs to practice good hygiene including washing hands frequently and cleaning
areas where you work and live. Avoid crowds and people coughing. Do not travel
unless it is an emergency of the highest level. If you must travel, look at
buying a seat on a corporate jet as opposed to a commercial airliner. Those of
you who are medical professionals are especially at risk.
The world economy will sink
into a recession. You will need to be defensive. Stay invested in cash in a
hard currency. Own some gold. Take a look at an ETF that I love called SWAN. It
is designed to protect you in the event of Black Swan Event. This epidemic is
such an event.
These are trying times!
Be careful out there!
