Ethiopia: The Price Of Freedom

ETHIOPIA

Price of Freedom

Ethiopia’s ethnic Sidama minority overwhelmingly voted to form their own self-governing region in a referendum that could inspire other ethnic groups to demand more autonomy, Ethiopia’s electoral board said Saturday, according to Reuters.

Results to date showed that 98.5 percent of voters supported autonomy in Wednesday’s vote with turnout reaching 99.7 percent.

“For me it’s the day of resurrection,” said Unani Fikro, a member of a Sidama activist group.

The vote will now allow the Sidama, which comprise four percent of Ethiopia’s 109 million people, to form their self-governing region, and administer their own local taxation, education system, and security among other things.

Ethiopia’s constitution gives the right to seek autonomy, but the recent referendum became possible from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent reforms.

Since he came to power last year, Abiy has allowed greater freedoms in the once repressive country.

His changes, however, have emboldened regional strongmen and encouraged other ethnic groups to demand more autonomy.

Calls for self-governance could threaten Abiy’s plans to unify the country ahead of the 2020 elections.

C

Guinea-Bissau: Who Is In Charge?

GUINEA-BISSAU

Who’s In Charge?

Guinea-Bissau is arguably a “narco state,” a country where drug money has corrupted every nook and cranny of the government, the economy and society.

Police recently seized 1.8 tons of cocaine from smugglers, for example. It was the second time in six months they had broken their record for the biggest drug haul in the West African country’s history, InSight Crime reported.

Not coincidentally, nobody is really in charge of Guinea-Bissau.

Voters went to the polls on Nov. 24 to elect a new president, and preliminary results are expected in a few days. But, given widespread graft and the multiple coups the nation has suffered since independence from Portugal in 1974, many wonder whether the country will successfully pull off a democratic transition.

Jose Mario Vaz, the country’s first democratically elected president to complete a five-year term since the introduction of multi-party elections in 1994, is running for re-election. “Corruption was installed at the highest level,” a Vaz spokesman told Voice of America. “Drug trafficking, with collaboration of a lot of people, was installed at the highest level, we needed to fight that. We needed to make reforms, but reforms are not easy.”

Voters have reason to be suspicious of Vaz’s lofty aims, however.

As University of Central Florida scholars Clayton Besaw and Jonathan Powell explained in the Conversation, the president’s term technically ended in June, but Vaz remained in office. At the time, he was in conflict with his political allies for refusing to support their nominee for prime minister, Domingos Simoes Pereira. Vaz then struck a deal with lawmakers to remain in office – though with limited powers – until the presidential election this month in exchange for approving another premier, Aristide Gomes.

In October, however, after violent protests and warnings from Gomes about a possible coup, Vaz sacked Gomes and appointed a new prime minister, Faustino Fudut Imbali, reported the South Africa-based Independent Online. The coup warnings especially stirred up fears, given how the military has repeatedly entered politics. But Gomes refused to accept the sacking, Al Jazeera wrote. Imbali, meanwhile, resigned after 11 days.

The changes led the African Union to issue a statement expressing “deep concern over the continued deterioration of the political and security situation” in the country.

Guinea-Bissau’s military has denied any interest in a coup. However, the generals have also rejected the Economic Community of West African States’ proposal to increase its military contingent in the country as a stabilization measure, wrote Political Analysis South Africa.

The organization helped The Gambia a few years ago when another leader refused to leave after losing an election.

Regardless, the electoral process must go on if Guinea-Bissau is to move forward. But politicians will need to respect the process – and each other – for the results to hold. And the military must stay out of the way.

And then, maybe, everyone will know who is actually in charge.

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Rwanda: Darling Tyrant

RWANDA

Darling Tyrant

Rwandan President Paul Kagame, in office for almost 20 years, delivered a blunt statement to his enemies during a recent swearing-in ceremony for cabinet members and military brass.

“I want to warn some people among us who hide behind different things. They hide behind politics, democracy, freedom that we actually want,” Kagame said, according to Xinhua. “The people behind this nonsense and even backed and praised by people from outside…are going to face it rough.”

The president stressed he would not tolerate anyone who propagated a “politics of division and hate, and genocide ideology,” wrote the New Times, a local newspaper.

But Kagame was presumably addressing critics who describe him as authoritarian and accuse his security forces and agents of illegal detentions, torture, false charges and other ways of harassing political dissidents, PBS NewsHour reported.

Indeed, opposition members often go missing in Rwanda. The latest was 29-year-old Eugene Ndereyimana, a vocal critic of Kagame who was hoping to run against the president’s Rwandan Patriotic Front.

“Where is he now? Is he alive, or was he killed by police?” asked a town elder in Kibungo, Rwanda, in the Washington Times. “What kind of country is this where one cannot speak freely? He is not the first one to go missing. We are losing our people in mysterious ways.”

A story in CNN listed other dissidents who are now missing.

What is remarkable about all this is that Rwanda is held up as a model of peace and prosperity on the continent. Indeed, Kagame’s version of stability has been pretty good for a country forever scarred by the genocide of 1994. The capital of Kigali is becoming a tourist attraction, reported Bloomberg in a video that featured clean streets, low crime and a growing economy.

Some of Rwanda’s prosperity might be ill-gotten. Citing United Nations reports, the San Francisco Bay View National Black Newspaper noted how the country is likely benefiting from the illegal gold trade, often via routes dating back to its participation in wars in the Congo.

Still, Al Jazeera recently concluded that “Kagame’s Rwanda is still Africa’s most inspiring success story.” It was Kagame who, as commander of a force of uneducated guerrilla fighters, managed to put an end to the genocide. He has been president since 2000 and is credited with bringing stability to the country and leaving old grievances in the past as much as possible.

Kagame’s mix of appeal and repulsion led Politico to dub him the “darling tyrant.”

As in many countries in Africa and around the world, analysts say it’s likely the Rwandans will get tired of their leader, hit the streets and eventually remove him. If that happens, one can hope it’s not at the expense of the peace and prosperity they won so dearly.

The Land Grab Madness Continues In South Africa

14th November 2019  

As government ministers tinker with the details of land expropriation without compensation and some analysts ponder the philosophical benefits of redistributing property in this manner, I’m with Anthea Jeffery when she warns that there is no room for complacency. This is because I have close experience with what land grabs look like in reality. My sister and her family were wrenched from the farm in Zimbabwe where her husband at the time worked as a farm manager; they fled with nothing after menacing groups of so-called war veterans threatened rape and sodomy and beat up her husband and some of the workers. My sister and family were lucky; dozens were killed. Years later, most of the commercial farms that were once highly productive are no longer businesses, with their new occupants unable to work the land because they lack the skills and capital. There were no real winners from the land grabs, except for the politically connected. Today, hyperinflation, a shattered economy, widespread poverty and a country that looks a lot like it must have before electricity was invented is what is left while a small elite enjoys a high life that includes spending much time elsewhere to benefit from creature comforts. Worryingly, important constitutional changes around land expropriation are set to be pushed through when most of South Africa is on its annual summer holiday, and, as Dr Jeffery points out, that these legislative amendments look a lot like a case of bringing Zimbabwe to South Africa. This article is published here on BizNews, with the kind permission of the Daily Friend. – Jackie Cameron

‘Bringing Zimbabwe to South Africa’

By Anthea Jeffery*

There is no room for complacency.

Dr Anthea Jeffery of the IRR.

A parliamentary ad hoc committee is pushing ahead with the drafting of a bill to amend Section 25 (the property clause) and allow expropriation without compensation (EWC). The committee has developed two possible options for the wording of this amendment bill, and is considering a third proposal for which the EFF is pushing strongly.

These points emerged from a meeting convened by the committee in Parliament last week. At this ‘constitutional dialogue on land ownership’, the committee – formally the Ad Hoc Committee to Initiate and Introduce Legislation Amending Section 25 of the Constitution – made it clear that the decision to amend Section 25 has already been taken and cannot be revisited. Hence, its sole task is to draw up an amendment bill that can be tabled in the National Assembly by the end of March 2020.

Under the committee’s Option 1, sub-sections 25(2) and (3) would be amended so as to limit the obligation to pay compensation on expropriation. This would be done by adding a proviso stating that ‘a court may determine that no compensation is payable in the event of expropriation of land for purposes of land reform’. However, ‘where compensation is payable’, its amount would have to be ‘just and equitable’, as Section 25 currently provides.

The committee’s Option 2 is more sweeping and would involve the insertion of a new sub-section 25(4A),saying:

‘Notwithstanding the requirement for compensation in section 25(2)(3) and (4), land may be expropriated without the payment of any compensation as a legitimate option for land reform in order to redress the results of past racial discrimination.’

The critical difference between the two is that Option 2 takes the decision on zero compensation away from the courts and transfers it to the ANC’s deployed cadres. Once the Expropriation Bill has been enacted, this will allow hundreds of municipalities, SOEs, government departments, and other ‘expropriating authorities’ to decide that no compensation should be paid for land expropriated for ‘land reform’ purposes. Since these decisions on zero compensation will have been authorised by the new sub-section 25(4A), the courts will find it difficult to intervene.

The EFF wants yet more sweeping changes. Sub-section 25(1), which currently bars the ‘arbitrary deprivation’ of property, should be replaced, it says, by a clause obliging the state to ‘redress the imbalances of the past through the enactment of laws that will…equitably redistribute resources’. Sub-section 25(2), which requires the payment of compensation on expropriation, should be replaced by a clause saying that ‘property may be expropriated without compensation’, provided this is done via ‘a law of general application’ and ‘in the public interest’. Sub-section 25(3), giving the courts the power to decide on ‘just and equitable’ compensation, should be replaced by a provision making ‘the state the custodian of all South Africa’s natural resources, inclusive of land’.

Read also Land expropriation debate is deterring investment – IRR’s Terence Corrigan

The committee is unlikely to include the EFF’s proposals in its constitutional amendment bill. Its mandate is to make ‘explicit’ the zero compensation options that are supposedly already ‘implicit’ in Section 25 – and the EFF’s changes go beyond this.

However, this is no reason for complacency. Once Section 25 has been amended by the addition of a new Section 25(4A), ordinary legislation could easily be adopted that would achieve the EFF (and ANC) objective of vesting all land in the custodianship of the state.

Assume Section 25 has been amended to include the committee’s Option 2 and to say (in a new sub-section 4A):

Notwithstanding the requirement for compensation in section 25(2)(3) and (4), land may be expropriated without the payment of any compensation as a legitimate option for land reform in order to redress the results of past racial discrimination.’

Parliament could then (by a 51% majority) enact a statute vesting the custodianship of all land in the state – and saying that this expropriation without compensation is ‘a legitimate option for land reform in order to redress the results of past racial discrimination’.

The constitutional validity of this statute would be difficult to challenge, while its consequences would be devastating. With all land vested in the state as custodian, existing title deeds would be meaningless, people could no longer use home ownership to build up household wealth, and everyone (including businesses) would need land-use contracts with the state which would be open to termination whenever cadres regarded this as ‘in the public interest’. Think also banks security for loans

Land would become a key patronage tool in the hands of the ruling party – and would be used by it to cement dependency on the state and keep itself in power. Investment, growth and employment would all diminish, and further ratings downgrades would be sure to follow.

Despite the enormous ramifications of the pending constitutional amendment, the committee proposes to give the public a mere three weeks or so to make written comments on its draft. In addition, the period for written submissions will start in December – when many people are on holiday and the country effectively shuts down.

This proposal makes a mockery of the constitutional requirement to ‘facilitate public involvement’ in the legislative process. It also disregards a number of Constitutional Court rulings on what proper public participation requires.

Read also ‘Smash and grab’ of land won’t happen in South Africa, says Ramaphosa

According to the court, citizens must be given ‘a reasonable opportunity to know about’ pending legislation and to ‘have an adequate say’. Enough time must thus be allowed for the consultation process, and ‘a truncated timeline’ may itself be ‘inherently unreasonable’.

The court has also stressed that legislative timetables cannot be allowed to trump constitutional rights. On the contrary, it says: ‘The timetable must be subordinated to the rights guaranteed in the Constitution, and not the rights to the timetable.’

The High Level Panel of Parliament (chaired by former President Kgalema Motlanthe) reported in November 2017 that there was no need to amend the Constitution to shift land reform from failure to success. Failure resulted not from Section 25 but rather from a host of other factors – including minuscule budgets, bureaucratic inefficiency, elite capture, corruption, insufficient support, and a determination not to allow new black farmers the benefits of individual ownership.

These crucial challenges have yet to be overcome. The country is nevertheless being relentlessly pushed into an unnecessary and highly damaging constitutional amendment that is sure to ‘bring Zimbabwe to South Africa’ (as a DA local councillor once put it).

Dr Anthea Jeffery holds law degrees from Wits, Cambridge, and London universities. Since 1990, she has worked for the South African Institute of Race Relations, where she is Head of Special Research. She is the author of ten books, including Business and Affirmative Action; The Truth about the Truth Commission; Peoples War: New Light on the Struggle for South Africa; and Chasing the Rainbow: South Africas Move from Mandela to Zuma.

If you like what you have just read, become a Friend of the IRR if you aren’t already one by SMSing your name to 32823 or clicking here. Each SMS costs R1.’ Terms & Conditions Apply.

Warm regards

NASA's Mars 2020 Will Hunt for Microscopic Fossils

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Zimbabwe: Money..Money Money

ZIMBABWE

Money, Money, Money

Zimbabweans formed lines outside banks on Tuesday in hopes of getting their hands on the country’s first Zimbabwe dollar notes issued since 2009.

The country’s central bank hopes the new notes will ease the severe cash shortages while playing down fears that the new dollars will worsen the inflation rate, the BBC reported.

The currency was previously scrapped a decade ago due to hyperinflation, forcing Zimbabweans to rely on US dollars, South African rands, as well as other foreign currencies.

The government had previously attempted to counter the cash shortage by issuing bond notes and coins. In February, it created a new electronic currency called the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) dollar, but inflation continued to soar.

In June, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe banned US dollars and other foreign currencies but they flourished on the black market, while many — especially businesses — shunned the Zimbabwe dollars.

Meanwhile, the central bank has said the two- and five-Zimbabwe dollar notes will not increase the overall money supply even as many remain convinced that the cash injection will stoke inflation.

Zimbabwe’s current inflation rate stands at around 300 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund.

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South Africa: Finding Eden

Finding Eden

It’s generally accepted that Homo sapiens originated in Africa more than 200,000 years ago, but scientists haven’t been able to pinpoint the exact origin of our ancestors on the vast continent.

A recent study, however, argues that modern humans originated in the Makgadikgadi salt flats in southern Africa, an area that was once a fertile land where early humans thrived and expanded, Live Science reported.

A team of researchers studied genetic data from more than 1,200 indigenous Africans living in the southern part of the continent today to construct a history of one of the oldest DNA lineages on Earth: a line of mitochondrial DNA called L0.

Mitochondrial DNA, which everyone has but is passed down only by mothers, can remain unchanged for tens of thousands of years, and this allowed the researchers to argue they had pinpointed the origin of the hypothetical “mitochondrial Eve.”

The study posits that mitochondrial Eve and her offspring lived in the once-lush Makgadikgadi from 200,000 to 170,000 years ago, until climate changes encouraged them to branch out.

But the researchers added that while the study might reveal one location for the “Garden of Eden,” they acknowledged that modern humans may have had multiple “homelands” where they originated.

Some critics of the study have made the same point. They note that fossils of modern-looking humans that date back more than 200,000 years have been found in other parts of Africa, including Morocco.

The search for the garden continues.

Ethiopia: No Good Deed!

ETHIOPIA

No Good Deed…

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize recently for his efforts to end a 20-year-long war with neighboring Eritrea.

But less than two weeks after the announcement, protesters were burning the 43-year-old politician’s book in demonstrations in support of opposition media activist Jawar Mohammed: He claimed that Abiy cut a security detail that had been protecting him from potential threats, the BBC reported.

More than 80 people died in the unrest. Police detained more than 400 people in connection with the turmoil.

Jawar runs the Oromia Media Network, which reported on anti-government protests in recent years and helped bring down Abiy’s predecessor last year, paving the way for the new prime minister to introduce reforms to the country’s centralized economy and loosening obstacles to political dissent.

The Oromia region is the homeland of the Oromo people, who are Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group but feel marginalized in the country, creating a tense climate that has sometimes led to internecine violence. While Abiy is Oromo, Jawar has been critical of some of his reforms, explained Al Jazeera.

Police denied that they had endangered Jawar. But Abiy has been critical of the activist, who was born in Ethiopia but is an American citizen who lived in the US until he returned to his native land after Abiy became prime minister.

“Those media owners who don’t have Ethiopian passports are playing both ways,” said the prime minister in parliament recently, according to Reuters. “When there is peace you are playing here, and when we are in trouble you are not here.”

Jawar, meanwhile, is considering running against Abiy in next year’s general election.

The controversy is a remarkable sign of how years of oppressive government have made Ethiopians skeptical of their leaders, even when they receive one of the world’s highest honors.

Another illustration of the dynamic comes from Abiy’s decision to renovate the former emperor’s palace and open its grounds and a museum to tourists. Some welcomed the move. But others complained that the revamped palace’s exhibitions ignored the torture and massacres perpetrated by Ethiopia’s monarchs.

Political analyst Seyoum Teshome told the Washington Post that the prime minister has faced massive challenges and is doing his best. “Abiy is trying to create unity, and maybe that can only happen by ignoring certain parts of our history,” said Teshome. “But you must magnify the positive things – the common history and common future. If we don’t do that, we will return to the brink of collapse.”

Transitions don’t always end well. But there’s no chance of anything changing unless they occur. Abiy is a prime example of that.

Zimbabwe: The Blame Game

ZIMBABWE

The Blame Game

Zimbabwean civil servants took to the streets of the capital on Wednesday to demand higher wages from the government as the country continues to see severe hyperinflation, the New York Times reported.

This is the first time that government workers were allowed to strike against their employer, and it comes amid other strikes including an almost two-month long strike by Zimbabwean doctors.

The nation’s inflation rate is about 300 percent, according to recent figures by the International Monetary Fund.

The government has tried to alleviate discontent among civil servants by providing subsidies to help meet the increased living costs, but protesters complain that their earnings continue to devalue in the face of skyrocketing prices.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government has tried to attract investors, but its poor human rights record has been criticized internationally, including by the United States, which imposed sanctions on several Zimbabwean government officials last month.

Since his reelection last year, Mnangagwa has crushed several anti-government protests and has recently blamed American and European sanctions for Zimbabwe’s collapsing economy.