Ethiopia: An Attempted Coup

ETHIOPIA

De Tocqueville’s Moment

Ethiopians recently mourned the death of Gen. Seare Mekonnen.

They might also have shed a tear for their country’s fragile democracy.

Mekonnen and other officials were shot and killed during an attempted coup in the northern province of Amhara, the BBC reported.

Security forces killed the ringleader of the conspiracy, Brig. Gen. Asaminew Tsige, and arrested almost 200 others soon after the takeover attempt was launched, according to the Associated Press.

But rather than celebrating the Ethiopian government’s success in snuffing out a challenge, observers suggested the coup might illustrate deep opposition to the reforms of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has sought to end political oppression and corruption while maintaining the country’s economic renaissance.

“Ethiopia’s current situation brings to mind Alexis de Tocqueville’s famous warning that the most dangerous moment for a bad government is when it starts to reform,” wrote Slate.

For years, Ethiopia’s rulers have effectively been autocrats elected from the ranks of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. They fought a war against their neighbor, Eritrea, jailed dissidents, suppressed free speech and discriminated against ethnic groups that weren’t part of the ruling class.

Abiy has been trying to bring an end to that history. He ended the war with Eritrea, freed political prisoners – including, ironically, Asaminew, jailed for an earlier attempt to overthrow the government – promoted press freedom and even appointed women to half his cabinet posts.

But the new freedoms have released pent up anger that has simmered for years among Ethiopians, the Financial Times reported. Internecine fighting throughout the country, exacerbated by a severe drought, has displaced a whopping 3 million people. The chaos might even prevent the country from holding elections in 2020, emboldening the proponents of authoritarianism, notedQuartz.

The prime minister claims he is in control.

But Ethiopia is at a critical juncture, Human Rights Watch researcher Felix Horne said in an interview with Foreign Policy magazine. Everyone who cares about the country is wondering whether Abiy can and will take action to avert full-blown civil war on the one hand or state collapse on the other.

Some are hopeful.

Deutsche Welle’s Ludger Schadomsky opined that Abiy might use the crisis as an opportunity to seek greater powers and install loyal officials throughout local and regional governments. Such measures don’t necessarily mean the country will return to totalitarianism. They might be necessary. The International Crisis Group, meanwhile, said the prime minister needed to work harder to develop a consensus to avoid more violence.

Perhaps Abiy will do both. He’d better do something. Many in and out of the country have welcomed his changes. And they want more of them.