Protests against the rule of Omar al-Bashir in Sudan are growing
With the army looking ready to fracture, the risk of more violence is growing
THE SCRIPT goes like this. First, the government cuts subsidies on basic goods such as bread, sparking riots. Middle-class people, including doctors and university lecturers, then take to the streets of the capital, Khartoum, spearheading a national uprising against military dictatorship. The regime responds by deploying police and security forces. Civilians are arrested and beaten; some are killed. But after months of confrontation even the army joins the protests, as a group of generals announce the formation of a new interim government. The president, all out of luck, ends up in exile.
That was how events unfolded in 1985, the year of Sudan’s previous democratic revolution, which led to the overthrow of Gaafar Nimeiry and elections soon after. And it is a template that today’s protesters across Sudan are determined to follow. On April 6th, the anniversary of Nimeiry’s overthrow, tens of thousands followed a call by the Sudanese Professionals Association—a coalition of trade unions including those representing engineers, lawyers and journalists—to join protests against their strongman president, Omar al-Bashir. They called on him to step down, urging the army to join their struggle. It was the largest demonstration since unrest began in December in response to rising food prices. What has happened since suggests the four-month long uprising against Mr Bashir’s 30 year-old kleptocracy has entered its most crucial phase.
Demonstrators are now camped outside the headquarters of the armed forces and Mr Bashir’s current residence in unprecedented numbers. Teams of volunteers distribute supplies such as food, water and mattresses. On April 7th dozens of protests took place across the Sudanese capital, with car tyres set alight, and some roads and bridges blocked. That evening came reports of guns being fired towards people gathered outside the army compound; a second attempt to clear the sit-in took place in the early hours of April 8th. But it continues to swell. “We are in the midst of a fully fledged revolution now,” says Muhamed Osman, a political analyst in the capital.
There are signs that some elements within the armed forces are beginning to move against the president and his cohorts. Navy officers exchanged fire with members of Mr Bashir’s notorious spy agency and paramilitary forces when they tried to chase people away with tear gas and live ammunition. Soldiers have been spotted chanting with protesters. A video on social media shows some servicemen distributing bottles of water to demonstrators from army trucks. Another appears to show them firing into the sky in order to protect cheering civilians. Though it is unclear how widespread such actions might be, it suggests a rupture between the top brass, who have yet to disown the president, and the rank-and-file soldiers, many of whom count family members among the protesters. “They are trying to give them the maximum protection they can,” says Ahmed Elyas, an engineer.
This puts the president, and the country, in a dangerous position. Thousands have been arrested and at least 50 people killed since December. In February Mr Bashir declared a nationwide state of emergency, dissolved the government and replaced all 18 state governors with men from the armed forces or security service. In March he agreed to step down as head of the ruling National Congress Party, but he has yet to confirm he will not run for re-election in 2020. Mr Bashir, and some of those closest to him, fear prosecution for alleged atrocities. He has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for genocide and crimes against humanity in Sudan’s troubled Darfur region. “The army is beginning to fracture as an intransigent leader digs in,” says Abdi Rashid of the International Crisis Group. “The prospects of major violence are now more real than ever.”
Events in Sudan will be watched nervously by Mr Bashir’s fellow Arab leaders, who fear a second phase of the Arab spring that swept away several of them in 2011. Protesters in Algeria have recently forced the resignation of their ailing president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Who might be next?
That was how events unfolded in 1985, the year of Sudan’s previous democratic revolution, which led to the overthrow of Gaafar Nimeiry and elections soon after. And it is a template that today’s protesters across Sudan are determined to follow. On April 6th, the anniversary of Nimeiry’s overthrow, tens of thousands followed a call by the Sudanese Professionals Association—a coalition of trade unions including those representing engineers, lawyers and journalists—to join protests against their strongman president, Omar al-Bashir. They called on him to step down, urging the army to join their struggle. It was the largest demonstration since unrest began in December in response to rising food prices. What has happened since suggests the four-month long uprising against Mr Bashir’s 30 year-old kleptocracy has entered its most crucial phase.
Demonstrators are now camped outside the headquarters of the armed forces and Mr Bashir’s current residence in unprecedented numbers. Teams of volunteers distribute supplies such as food, water and mattresses. On April 7th dozens of protests took place across the Sudanese capital, with car tyres set alight, and some roads and bridges blocked. That evening came reports of guns being fired towards people gathered outside the army compound; a second attempt to clear the sit-in took place in the early hours of April 8th. But it continues to swell. “We are in the midst of a fully fledged revolution now,” says Muhamed Osman, a political analyst in the capital.
There are signs that some elements within the armed forces are beginning to move against the president and his cohorts. Navy officers exchanged fire with members of Mr Bashir’s notorious spy agency and paramilitary forces when they tried to chase people away with tear gas and live ammunition. Soldiers have been spotted chanting with protesters. A video on social media shows some servicemen distributing bottles of water to demonstrators from army trucks. Another appears to show them firing into the sky in order to protect cheering civilians. Though it is unclear how widespread such actions might be, it suggests a rupture between the top brass, who have yet to disown the president, and the rank-and-file soldiers, many of whom count family members among the protesters. “They are trying to give them the maximum protection they can,” says Ahmed Elyas, an engineer.
This puts the president, and the country, in a dangerous position. Thousands have been arrested and at least 50 people killed since December. In February Mr Bashir declared a nationwide state of emergency, dissolved the government and replaced all 18 state governors with men from the armed forces or security service. In March he agreed to step down as head of the ruling National Congress Party, but he has yet to confirm he will not run for re-election in 2020. Mr Bashir, and some of those closest to him, fear prosecution for alleged atrocities. He has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for genocide and crimes against humanity in Sudan’s troubled Darfur region. “The army is beginning to fracture as an intransigent leader digs in,” says Abdi Rashid of the International Crisis Group. “The prospects of major violence are now more real than ever.”
Events in Sudan will be watched nervously by Mr Bashir’s fellow Arab leaders, who fear a second phase of the Arab spring that swept away several of them in 2011. Protesters in Algeria have recently forced the resignation of their ailing president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Who might be next?
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