The Fight Against Jihadists Shifts To Africa

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/fight-against-jihadists-shifting-africa

Senegal: Old Faces

SENEGAL

Old Faces

Senegal’s prime minister said Monday that incumbent President Macky Sall won enough votes in Sunday’s election to avoid a runoff, though the election commission has yet to release the official tally.

“Our gathered results show that our candidate has largely won the election in the 13 out of 14 regions in the country. We can expect a minimum of 57 percent,” said Prime Minister Mahammed Dionne,according to Al Jazeera.

Shortly thereafter, however, the election commission called on the participants to “abstain from prematurely declaring the results, and maintain the calm atmosphere since the election was conducted.” Several opposition candidates insisted that nobody won enough votes to prevent a runoff.

“There is no question, a second round is unavoidable even if some media try to announce a victory in the first round,” said Idrissa Seck, one of the main candidates.

Similarly, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has claimed an early lead his country’s election, but is facing allegations of manipulation, the BBC reported.

The final results of both elections are expected later this week.

Elephants: Be Cool

Be Cool

African bush elephants live on savannas where temperatures average 85 degrees Fahrenheit.

The world’s largest land mammals can’t sweat like other mammals, and their skin is very wrinkly and thick – 50 times thicker than human skin.

But the heat never seems to bother them. So how do they stay cool?

Elephants control their body temperature through the intricate process of “evaporative cooling,” thanks to tiny crevices in their coarse skin, National Geographic reported.

Their outer skin is covered in papillae, small protrusions that become thicker and start to crack as the animals age. When an elephant sprays water on its skin, the water flows through the crevices using capillary action – the same way plant roots absorb water from the soil.

The crevices allow the animal to store up to ten times more water than smoother surfaced creatures can, but that’s just one part of their job.

The cracks also store mud and dust, creating a protective layer against sunburn and parasites such as mosquitoes.

Scientists hope that more research on elephant skin can help in finding better treatments for human skin conditions.

Click here to see how the big-tusked beasties stay cool.

C

Eskom bailout a dominant theme in 2019 Budget

Eskom bailout a dominant theme in 2019 Budget: Creamer Media's Chanel de Bruyn speaks to Engineering News Editor Terence Creamer about Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s announcement of a R69-billion bailout for Eskom over three years, how this has impacted on the country’s fiscal framework and how it is likely to affect South Africa’s credit rating.

How An Inefficient Power Provider Could Dim South Africa's Prosperity

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/how-inefficient-power-provider-could-dim-south-africas-prosperity?id=743c2bc617&e=1bd154cf7d&uuid=25b98c6b-972e-4990-955f-a0682d1e5cb4&utm_source=Topics%2C+Themes+and+Regions&utm_campaign=ae9c571bda-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_02_19_12_07&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_743c2bc617-ae9c571bda-53655957&mc_cid=ae9c571bda&mc_eid=[UNIQID]

Nigeria: Better Late Than Never

NIGERIA

Better Late Than Never?

Nigeria postponed its presidential elections by a week just hours before polls were to open Saturday, prompting opposition accusations that President Muhammadu Buhari is seeking to “disenfranchise” voters.

The electoral commission denied political bias played any role in the move, saying the vote was postponed due to logistical factors, Reuters reported.

Foreign election observers appealed for calm, while urging the authorities to follow through on their pledge to hold the postponed vote on Feb. 23, the BBC reported. Mahmood Yakubu, chairman of the Independent Electoral Commission, said that date was “sacrosanct.”

Past Nigerian elections have been marred by violence and vote-rigging, so the Electoral Commission’s claims that the delay was due to logistical problems were greeted with some skepticism.

“No matter who wins, it is now far more likely that the loser will contest the result and argue that the election has been compromised because sensitive materials are out there,” said Bismarck Rewane, economist and CEO of Lagos-based consultancy Finance Derivatives.

Buhari, in power since 2015, faces a tight election contest against former vice president Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

South Africa: Battling A Legacy

SOUTH AFRICA

Battling a Legacy

On the first anniversary of his presidency this month, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa is struggling with legacy issues.

Ramaphosa sparked controversy last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, when he referred to his predecessor Jacob Zuma’s tenure in office as “nine lost years.” As numerous scandals tarred his corrupt administration, Zuma was forced toresign last year with more than a year left in his term.

The South African press has been abuzz with debates over whether Ramaphosa was correct or mistaken about Zuma’s record and whether he should have panned a former head of state before an international audience.

Many reports, like this one in news24, also noted that Ramaphosa ironically was serving in government when Zuma resigned.

Revving up the commotion, Zuma issued a public statement refuting his former deputy’s assessment. “Could we have done more? Yes. Could it have been better? Yes,” the ex-president wrote,according to the Independent Online. “Was it a wasted decade? No.”

In his recent State of the Nation address, Ramaphosa indirectly addressed the storm he had caused, saying South Africa has suffered through a period of uncertainty that was now coming to an end.

“We must use this time to reflect on the progress we have made, the challenges we have encountered, the setbacks we have suffered and also the mistakes we have committed,” he said, reported the Citizen, a South African newspaper.

The public is still very supportive of the president, with polls showing he is more popular than his troubled party, the ANC, reported the Washington Times.

Some observers were less generous.

After “Zumageddon,” a period of “Ramaphoria” took over, political analyst Susan Booysen wrote in the Maverick, a South African news magazine. But Ramaphosa has enjoyed mixed success in tackling corruption, reinventing government and growing the economy, she argued.

Booysen admitted that Ramaphosa faces monumental challenges, however.

Take Eskom, the government-owned utility that provides South Africa with more than 90 percent of its electricity. As Bloombergexplained, the country has been suffering from rolling blackouts imposed to save the national grid. The problem is likely to persist for years because, as energy analyst Rod Crompton noted in the Conversation, Eskom is loaded with debt that stems from arguably poor management decisions.

Ramaphosa wants foreign investment to help. He’s planning to break up Eskom into three entities, a plan greeted with optimism at the Mail & Guardian, a South African newspaper.

But labor unions, including those at Eskom, are threatening strikes because the government is allegedly not working hard enough to lower the unemployment rate of 27 percent – not an environment that attracts cash.

It seems Ramaphosa can only move forward when the past becomes the past.

What;s At Stake In Nigeria's Election

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/whats-stake-nigerias-upcoming-election

Egypt: Pretenses Dropped

EGYPT

Pretenses Dropped

Egypt’s parliament approved a plan to change the constitution to allow President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to extend his rule until 2034, dashing once again the hopes for vibrant democracy engendered during the 2011 protests that led to the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.

A referendum is now likely in as little as three months, with its passage seen as a foregone conclusion, the New York Timesreported.

Enshrining an authoritarian government led by the country’s powerful military, the changes would allow el-Sisi to run for two additional six-year terms after he is slated to step down in 2022, as well as empower him to appoint judges and Egypt’s prosecutor general.

The changes would grant the military the power to choose the country’s defense minister, further reducing the possibility of civilian oversight.

The initial approval – which received the backing of 484 of 596 lawmakers – paves the way for a second and final vote two months later and a referendum a month after that.

Nigeria: Buyer's Remorse

NIGERIA

Buyer’s Remorse

As Nigerian voters pondered who should receive their support in presidential elections on Saturday, Al Jazeera zeroed in on the question foremost in many minds.

“Has Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari Honoured His Promises?” the Qatar-based news agency wrote in a headline.

The answer to that question appears to be a resounding no.

Buhari, 76, vowed to improve the West African country’s stagnating economy when he defeated ex-President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.

But Bloomberg warned that Nigeria faces a “lost decade” unless the oil-dependent country diversifies its economy. High inflation and a growing pool of unemployed youth are already making that job harder every day.

A former military dictator who led Nigeria in the 1980s, Buhari also pledged to crack down on corruption.

But the New York Times noted that Buhari’s critics accuse the president of moving more vigorously against corruption by his political enemies than against allies living large from graft.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, Buhari swore he would destroy Boko Haram, the militant group affiliated with the Islamic State whose fighters have kidnapped, raped and killed people in the country’s north with varying degrees of impunity for years.

The United Nations Refugee Agency, however, recently issued a worldwide plea to help 35,000 Nigerians who fled to Cameroon to escape the jihadists.

“When Boko Haram militants stormed into her hometown, heavily pregnant Nigerian mother Mariam Adoum dropped everything and ran for her life,” a UN press release said.

Buhari, in short, is a flop, many say. Nigeria, which is Africa’s most populous country and the continent’s biggest economy, deserves better, argued the Guardian.

Some of Buhari’s setbacks were from events he probably couldn’t control. He suffered an “unspecified ailment” that required him to spend three months in Britain for treatment, for example, wroteReuters. But the president needs to be in good enough health to govern.

Buhari’s main challenger is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, whom some of the president’s critics see as a vital, energetic alternative to Buhari. But Abubakar could be hurt by past allegations of corruption, all of which he denied. In 2010, for example, US Senate investigators said he had transferred more than $40 million in suspect funds to US banks.

The race is growing ugly, especially as candidates have integrated social media and other technologies into their campaigns. On the positive side, however, Quartz reported, election authorities have more tools to stymie vote rigging and other hijinks than were common in the past.

When former President Jonathan lost the vote four years ago, he became the first elected Nigerian leader to concede defeat and willingly leave office. It was a big win for democracy and a lesson Buhari should keep in mind.

South Africa's President's New Plan FOr Public Utilities Could Cost Him Dearly Politically

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/south-africa-presidents-new-plan-public-utilities-could-cost-him-politically-foreign-investment-eskom-unions-ramaphosa?id=743c2bc617&e=1bd154cf7d&uuid=d9cbcffa-fdbd-4483-a27a-e07831d70349&utm_source=Topics%2C+Themes+and+Regions&utm_campaign=b8a0fef4b3-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_02_08_10_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_743c2bc617-b8a0fef4b3-53655957&mc_cid=b8a0fef4b3&mc_eid=[UNIQID]

Tunisia: Buying Peace

TUNISIA

Buying Peace

Tunisia averted a nationwide strike by its largest trade union by agreeing to increase the wages earned by 670,000 state employees.

The total increase wasn’t announced, but Agence France-Pressereported that civil servants would get raises of up to $55 a month.

“The government has bought social peace,” said Minister of Economic Reform Taoufik Rajhi, according to Reuters. But the decision could put Tunisia at odds with the International Monetary Fund and other foreign lenders, who have been pushing the country to slash spending and reduce its large budget deficit.

Already, teachers have been boycotting student exams and last month a strike paralyzed rail, bus and air traffic, the agency said. Yet that kind of political turmoil is partly responsible for deterring investment – and the jobs it brings – forcing the country to agree to austerity measures and seek around $2.8 billion from the IMF.

One key to that austerity plan, as the IMF sees it, was freezing public sector wages.

D

South Africa's Eskom Will Be Split Into Three Pieces

Hi Claud
	In his State of the Nation Address (SONA) last night, president Cyril Ramaphosa announced that Eskom would be split into three pieces - generation, transmission, and distribution - in a bid to turn things around at the struggling utility. Unfortunately, Ramaphosa also hinted that there may be more state bailouts (read: taxpayer handouts) ahead as Eskom tries to fix its balance sheet and make its creditors whole - that's on top of double-digit price hikes. More encouragingly, he suggested the possibility of selling off some non-core assets to boost funding. That would be helpful. According to the president, Eskom Holdings will retain control of all three entities, meaning that privatisation is off the table. This raises the possibility that the split will be more cosmetic than substantive, which would be a pity, because substantive changes are desperately needed at Eskom. Ramaphosa underscored the need to slash costs at Eskom and the need for all South Africans to pay for their electricity and end the "culture of non-payment." He's right, of course. Eskom must urgently cut its unsustainably high costs and bolster its revenues, or electricity will become a luxury good in SA. Doing so will require taking on labour interests at the utility, where average staff costs are estimated at R600,000 per worker. It will also mean cleaning up the corruption mess left by Gupta-linked thieves. It's a big task, but Ramaphosa knows the stakes. Without a reliable and affordable power supply, his FDI dreams may come to nothing. Watch this space. You can listen to Alec’s Flash Briefing here.

Central African Republic-An Angry Peace.

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

An Angry Peace

Central African Republic on Wednesday formally inked a peace agreement with 14 rebel groups that had been announced earlier. But the deal has raised concerns that it rewards the warring factions rather than meting out punishment.

The peace deal, known as the Khartoum Agreement because it was negotiated in Sudan, is believed to call for incorporating representatives of the rebel groups into the government, the Associated Press reported.

“We are shocked because we see our authorities jubilant alongside our executioners,” said Yannick Nalimo, a journalist and blogger. “The people do not want these people, who put the country down and stripped us bare, to come back and manage the affairs of the state.”

Others are upset by reports that the agreement will end the prosecutions of soldiers accused of human rights abuses during the five-year conflict, which has killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands.

Such concerns aside, pragmatism suggests some kind of accommodation was necessary, as armed groups currently control around 80 percent of the country, fighting to control the trade in gold, diamonds and uranium.

South Africa Scares Off Foreign Investors

It might be election crazy. But President Ramaphosa’s investment drive isn’t benefiting when International Relations issues a diplomatic summons to the representatives of five countries that seven months ago prepped a discussion document as part of wide-ranging consultations on getting money to South Africa. And then the governing ANC steps in claiming ‘interference by the Western imperialist forces’, and ‘latterday colonialists’, to undermine SA’s sovereignty with their bullying. It’s the anatomy of political self-sabotage.

The ambassadors of Germany, The Netherlands, Switzerland and the United States and United Kingdom High Commissioner on Monday afternoon succinctly put on record that the memo at issue actually wasn’t an official document, and that it was part of the preparation for the presidential investment summit that had been announced for a few months down the line in October 2018.

It was a six-paragraph statement after their meeting with senior officials from the Department of International Relations (Dirco) in Pretoria after the five top diplomats received notice of a “démarche”, a summons that’s a serious diplomatic dressing-down, on Sunday, hours after World powers warn SA on graft was proclaimed from the Sunday Times front page.

“We made it clear that we had not sent any official documentation to any branch of the South African government. What media have been referring to is an informal discussion paper, drafted by our missions in June 2018 in the run-up to the President’s Investment Conference,” say the five top diplomats.

“This discussion paper was intended to support South Africa’s investment drive and to underpin our constructive dialogue with the South African government…”

In turn, the official Dirco statement noted the heads of missions had “regretted the misunderstanding” over the memo and had “further clarified that the discussion paper had been sent to the Presidency to contribute to the dialogue on how South Africa can attract more foreign direct investment”. And there had been agreement on lines of communication.

A case of saving face, perhaps, but how did it get here?

This is what happened.

Through whatever channels in the wide-ranging consultations, the Presidency led in the run-up to the October investment indaba, the memo landed with Trudi Makhanya, the president’s economic advisor since early 2018. And by all accounts, it had stayed there.

Makhanya referred queries to the presidency. Khusela Diko, the presidential spokesperson, referred to the joint statement of the five heads of missions, saying:

“We welcome the statement issued by the five embassies.”  Slap in face for Dirco and Sisulu

It is reliably understood the diplomats’ memo initially was circulated shortly after June, but nobody seemed to bite at the time, unlike now, in February 2019, with a few months to go before elections.

In mid-2018 South Africa was still gripped by Ramaphoria, with anticipation of the much-talked-about stimulus and economic recovery package to bailout a flailing South African economy – it was announced in September 2018 – while the first Pounds and Dollars in investment pledges had been secured towards the target of US$100-billion over five years that Ramaphosa had announced in his 2018 State of the Nation Address (SONA).

Daily Maverick by Monday had confirmed that the memo was indeed seven months old, having been prepared ahead of a meeting with retired Standard Bank CEO Jacko Maree, one of the investment envoys President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed in April 2018. That’s just before the president headed off on a five-country and Commonwealth Heads of State gathering, a round of visits of international schmoozing on South Africa’s renewal and also to start raising investment, some of which was secured.

The memo, which Daily Maverick has subsequently seen, raises familiar issues raised – often and regularly – not only with Ramaphosa during his overseas visits and also in domestic engagements, but also across the South African government. And it does so in a rather co-operative tone.

“… We share the goal of a united and democratic, equal and non-racist constitutional South Africa where everybody can enjoy and benefit from the political, social and economic freedoms enshrined in the Constitution of 1996,” says the June 2018 memo.

“We are convinced that an open economy that allows for as much as possible free and unimpeded flow of goods, services, capital and people is an important precondition in any prosperous economic development in South Africa. Long-term oriented foreign investment can crucially support South Africa in attaining its development and transformation objectives.”

It goes on to emphasise that “(w)e are optimistic that trust and confidence can be restored and foreign investment can pick up step by step to reach and outperform levels of the past. President Ramaphosa has set high and ambitious goals for foreign investment in the next 5 years. We are willing to make our contribution towards achieving that goal.” (Note: emphasis as in document)

Then the diplomats acknowledge that “foreign investors need to have a serious commitment to meaningful transformation and to overcoming the legacy of the Apartheid past”, that they want to “contribute to sustainable economic growth, the creation of decent and well-paid jobs and, in particular, to quality professional education”. Crucially, they commit to “ethical and honest business practices…” (Note: emphasis as in document)

Given that many of the companies fingered central to State Capture, be it KPMG, McKinsey and others, are European-based and dominated, that seems a good thing.

But, according to the memo, there are fundamental principles to be respected: “a clear, unqualified and manifest political commitment to the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary and to honest and ethical business practices…” alongside a level playing field for foreign investors and a “reliable political and economic framework”. (Note: emphasis as in document)

This requires five key moves: eliminating regulatory uncertainty – something rating agencies have hammered on about for years; sticking to the rule of law – something that has been a key focus of the Ramaphosa administration renewal mantra, hence the Zondo commission and other inquiries into the tax collection agency and prosecuting services, and a review of the visa regime, which has been repeatedly raised before.

The investment boycott threat contention that started the furore appears to be based on the paragraph on investment protection.

“No investor would venture to come to South Africa without proper and comprehensive guarantees for his investment,” was what was quoted in the Sunday newspaper, but importantly the memo goes on to say:

“Abrogating existing bilateral investment treaties without a proper investment protection law in force is a serious impediment to such foreign investment.”

That’s a direct reference to the controversial 2015 Promotion and Protection of Investment Act that government believed would allow greater scope against what it saw as restrictive bilateral treaties – many that lapsed were not renewed – and stave off possible international arbitration over an established policy like broad-based black economic empowerment.

The European Union was never a fan of this and has made this publicly known. But it hasn’t stopped anyone from investing in South Africa. The German company Mercedes-Benz in June 2018 announced R10-billion investment in East London. British Prime Minister Theresa May’s August 2018 official working visit to South Africa announced investments worth R72-billion in Africa by 2022, with South Africa a key beneficiary country. And other European countries like France are keen on getting involved and putting their money behind projects.

The memo raised concerns around the land issue, or more precisely the land expropriation without compensation issue. Again an issue Ramaphosa has tackled this internationally for about a year – and domestically when, for example, it came up in his Q&A in the House in August 2018. More recently he had to talk to this at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.

A presidency insider told Daily Maverick that none of the issues the memo raises around corruption, regulatory and policy certainty and the visa regimen are unfamiliar. They have been “raised sharply” at various investment meetings Ramaphosa has had in the past three months, be it with a head of state, officials or business representatives. These concerns were broached during Ramaphosa’s visit to the European Union in November 2018, his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, and also the meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the sidelines of the October 2018 G20 Africa Summit in Berlin which led to the November 2018 state visit by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and a German business delegation.

That everyone is watching the Zondo State Capture Commission, and others like the Nugent Inquiry or even the 2018 parliamentary inquiry into State Capture at Eskom, was already clear then. Steinmeier said so.

“We’re visiting you at a time when interest in SA is awakening again. We’re following the new developments in SA with great interest. We’re following your new policies, your efforts to strengthen the independence of the judiciary by creating transparency, also your efforts to fight corruption,” said Steinmeier, according to Business Day.

“We’re following very closely the governmental institutions’ efforts [to fight] what is called state capture in South Africa. They are a very important signal to the international community, a signal that is very well received in Germany.”

It’s a no-brainer that the testimony before the Zondo Commission into State Capture would be closely watched by embassies – it’s part of what diplomatic staff do, like attending debates in the National Assembly where embassy staff are regularly spotted in the diplomatic bay of the public gallery.

So what’s behind the furore over a seven-month-old memo that in large measure offers support to South Africa’s renewal and investment drive?

It could be a factional push to shift South Africa’s investment drive away from Europe towards BRICS, the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. But China already is playing an important investment role in a warming relationship backed up by Ramaphosa’s state visit there in September 2018. According to the Presidency, a number of agreements were signed, including one investment project valued at R14-billion. And the recent state visit to India also deepened relations, including cementing the 2018 unblocking of Denel, the arms manufacturer that had been blackballed over dodgy practices in India previously. It’s important: India is one of the lucrative markets for arms and weapons.

Is there perhaps an electioneering push to situate South Africa’s foreign policy within BRICS and the AU? While the ANC election manifesto seems to emphasise the African Union, SADC (Southern African Development Community) and the Global South, thereality is that 75% plus of trade is with the UK, Germany, The Netherlands, the US and Switzerland – the five countries that through their diplomatic representative drafted the memo at the centre of the furore.

“It’s clearly election season when a sensible unsigned discussion memo can generate so much anti-colonialist political backlash,” said Intellidex analyst Peter Attard Montalto with a caution.

“The content of the memo should not be forgotten however and reflects the current views of a large swathe of investors around the lack of implementation of reform or meaningful improvements tot the doing business environment in the past year.”

The ANC reaction to describe the memo as “an act of imperialism”, was reiterated by acting ANC national spokesperson Zizi Kodwa. “We are a sovereign state based on the rule of law. We are doing a lot of work to root out corruption, including the commissions, painful as these are…” he told Daily Maverick. “There was no need for such a memo.”  Another dick!

And the South African Communist Party (SACP) agrees: “Not only does the conduct displayed by the imperialist embassies violate all international diplomatic protocols as pointed out by Dirco, but is deeply offensive and an attack on our national sovereignty. Some of these countries have in the past used their embassies as the frontline in their offensive actions in destabilising many developing countries”.

The statements of the governing ANC and SACP echoed the need for adherence to protocol and lines of diplomatic communications that Dirco raised in two statements since Sunday.

There is a view that Dirco reacted too strongly – it “overreacted” without the necessary information was how one government insider put it – in the wake of the newspaper report. It could not be fully ascertained how much communication there had been between the presidency and Dirco – it is reliably understood there had been a decision to let the department take the lead – before International Relations issued the démarche.

When asked about what could be seen as an overreaction, International Minister Lindiwe Sisulu’s spokesperson Ndivhuwo Mabaya said the date of the memo was not important.

“What is important is that all communications from ambassadors or diplomats must follow diplomatic channels and protocols. Our own diplomats who are representing us in 125 countries also follow the same diplomatic channels.”  Bs and more bs and even more bs!

A case of form over function, perhaps, and a rational sounding fallback in election induced high-pressure times, but this debacle may just have made South Africa’s case for itself a even more difficult. DM

Warm regards

CLIFF HALL

Zimbabwe: Wanted A Revolution

ZIMBABWE

Wanted: Revolution

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa decided to skip the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month.

Ostensibly, he couldn’t leave Zimbabwe while a wave of protests rocked the country, CNN reported. But he was probably also reluctant to attend a conference where billionaires, celebrities and internationally renowned social activists were likely to cite him as the poster child of how not to run a country.

In 2017, when Mnangagwa ousted President Robert Mugabe from power, many celebrated the regime change. But Mnangagwa was always among Mugabe’s inner circle in their political party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF).

As the BBC explained, his nickname was the “crocodile” due to his political cunning and the military offensives associated with him that killed thousands after the country’s independence from Britain in 1980. Mnangagwa denies complicity in the massacres.

Still, he’s now reaping a whirlwind he helped create.

After years of neglect, Zimbabwe’s economy has collapsed.

Last month, Mnangagwa triggered protests when he ham-fistedly announced that the cost of fuel would double overnight. Now the price at the pump in the southern African country is the most expensive in the world, according to GlobalPetrolPrices.com. The costs of other goods are also skyrocketing as inflation soars.

Meanwhile, many live on less than a $1 a day.

The country was not always poor. In its heyday, the southwestern city of Bulawayo was like Chicago, “an industrial, farming and railway hub,” wrote the Financial Times. Now, “dormant factories and mothballed cold-storage facilities” that formerly shipped meat to Europe, garnering crucial foreign currency, dot the gutted city’s streets.

Zimbabweans are frustrated. Mugabe ruled for 37 years. As people filled the streets last month to express their anger over gas prices and higher living costs, Mnangagwa had an opportunity to address the nation and bring people together.

Instead, he shut down the Internet. Pictures of security forces cracking down on demonstrators didn’t sit well with the president, NPR reported.

Women are accusing soldiers of rape, the Guardian wrote. One victim spoke to Voice of America, describing her horrific experience at the hands of men who are supposed to be upholding law and order.

Mnangagwa, meanwhile, is blaming foreigners for stirring up the trouble. Clearly, his own people couldn’t be dissatisfied. “We have told the Western countries that they cannot turn around and raise concerns when they are the ones sponsoring the violence,” he told a local newspaper cited in Agence France-Presse.

Writing in the South Africa-based Independent Online, University of Johannesburg foreign policy expert David Monyae argued that Zimbabwe needed root-and-branch reforms that would end the ZANU-PF’s monopoly on power. “The fantasy that one leader or one political party can resolve the crisis is just that,” he wrote.

That would be a revolution that Mnangagwa would certainly oppose. But Zimbabweans deposed one dictator a short time ago. Many think they will do it again.

Central African Republic-Paths To Peace

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

Path to Peace

The government of the Central African Republic finalized a peace deal with 14 rebel groups that could end the turmoil that has plagued the country since 2013.

The UN mission in CAR and the African Union (AU), which both sponsored the talks in Sudan, announced the agreement Saturday, the BBC reported. “This is a great day for Central African Republic and all its people,” said AU commissioner Smail Chergui.

The details of the peace deal hadn’t been released, however, and analysts cautioned that similar past agreements have all collapsed. A spokesman for one of the rebel groups said negotiators had reached a consensus on an amnesty for militia fighters and an inclusive government, two important hurdles.

Chaos has reigned in CAR since 2013, when Muslim rebels from the Seleka umbrella group seized power in the majority-Christian country, prompting reprisals from mostly Christian militias.

The resulting violence has killed thousands, internally displaced millions, and prompted nearly 600,000 to flee the country, the BBC said.