Libya: A Desperate Choice

LIBYA

A Desperate Choice

Since the demise of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya, the country the flamboyant leader once held together through a combination of charisma and military might, has descended into seemingly unending chaos.

Now, the people may well face a choice between democracy and chaos versus a return to stability alongside a new military dictatorship.

Since 2014, the country has had two rival governments – the UN-backed Government of National Accord headed by Fayez al-Sarraj and the so-called Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa Haftar, which controls a large part of eastern Libya and its oil fields, Al-Jazeera explained.

And for the past few years, various armed militias, both independent and allied with the two governments, have competed for power across the country, becoming “magnets for rogue groups and organized crime – where abuse, cruelty and extortion are common currencies,” noted CNN.

More recently, it came to light that hundreds of African refugees are being bought and sold in “slave markets” across the country every week, mostly migrants seeking passage with people smugglers through Libya across the Mediterranean to Europe, Al-Jazeera reported separately.

Amid that chaos, Haftar in December dismissed the UN-backed government as obsolete and UN-brokered peace talks between the two sides, presenting himself as a Gaddafi-style strongman who can bring order to the country and hinting he may seek the mandate of the people in elections expected in 2018, Reuters reported.

“The 17th of December has arrived and brought with it the end of the so-called Skhirat agreement,” Haftar said last month, referring to an agreement signed in Morocco’s Skhirat in 2015 that established Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) for a period of one year. Under that deal, the GNA could only be renewed once.

What Haftar is proposing to replace it is essentially military rule, Al-Jazeera quoted Anas El Gomati, founder of the Tripoli-based Sadeq Institute, as saying.

“Haftar today seeks to exploit the political vacuum and suggests the Libyan National Army – an amalgamation of largely tribal militia groups and Salafi groups – are able to take political control of the country,” El Gomati said. “Ultimately, Haftar offers a return to a military state.”

Given the ineffectiveness of the UN and the misery plaguing the country, his promise of order will no doubt sound good to many Libyans, some of whom are already trying to restore their cities and rebuild their lives. But his success or failure will more likely depend on his ability to carefully navigate the patronage system and exploit personal, tribal and political relationships. Similarly, he enjoys the backing of governments and other power brokers with an interest in maintaining the status quo in the region.

“A democratic or pluralistic Libya, with the ability to hold elected officials to account, is an existential threat to Egyptian and Emirati regime maintenance,” El Gomati said. “A military regime in Libya would sober expectations regionally and return it to (the) status quo.”

W