Kenya: Alternate Government

KENYA

Alternative Government

Kenya cut off television broadcasts Tuesday as tens of thousands of people gathered in Nairobi for a mock inauguration symbolizing their continued discontent over last year’s presidential election.

Former Kenyan Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka said shots were fired at his home and a grenade was detonated just hours after he was blocked from attending the mock ceremony for opposition challenger Raila Odinga, the Associated Press reported.

Musyoka called the incident – which happened after his police security detail was removed – “an assassination attempt.”

On Tuesday, Odinga took a symbolic oath of office before thousands of supporters, who say not only the original August election but also the repeat performance ordered by the Supreme Court were marred by irregularities, Reuters said.

The authorities didn’t stop the ceremony. However, they did cut off the live broadcast over television and radio and declared the opposition “National Resistance Movement” a criminal group, paving the way for potential arrests.

Equatorial Guinea Weights A Dynasty In The Making

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/equatorial-guinea-weighs-dynasty-making?id=743c2bc617&e=1bd154cf7d&uuid=4c903f5f-b026-4ad2-8d2f-ce2206bdf5b3&utm_source=Topics%2C+Themes+and+Regions&utm_campaign=67cd2641b6-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_26&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_743c2bc617-67cd2641b6-53655957&mc_cid=67cd2641b6&mc_eid=[UNIQID]

Nigeria: Unfair Conditions

NIGERIA

Unfair Conditions

Nigeria will protest the conditions set by the US on its planned $494 million purchase of 12 A-29 Super Tucano fighter planes.

Defense Minister Mansur Dan Ali said Thursday that Nigeria will object to the 2020 transfer date for the aircraft, as well as restrictions on training for Nigerian technicians and maintenance crews, Reuters reported.

Former President Barack Obama delayed the sale over concerns about Nigeria’s human rights record. But President Donald Trump’s administration approved it to support Nigeria’s efforts to fight Boko Haram militants.

Nigeria’s air force said the two parties had agreed on a deal in December. But the final agreement and first payments are slated for Feb. 20. On Thursday, Dan Ali called that into question, saying “payments will be made when the conditions are reduced.”

The sale of the 12 aircraft, with weapons and service, includes thousands of bombs and rockets, Reuters said.

Water woes: Maimane, Zille shift blame to Nomvula Mokonyane

Water woes: Maimane, Zille shift blame to Nomvula Mokonyane: Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Mmusi Maimane made it very clear on Wednesday that the responsibility to provide bulk water lay with the national Department of Water and Sanitation. Despite starting off his address by saying that 'this is not a finger pointing exercise', both Maimane and Premier Helen Zille laid the blame on Water and Sanitation Minister Nomvula Mokonyane.

Egypt: Sudden Justice

EGYPT

Sudden Justice

Egypt’s military has developed a sudden concern for justice.

On Tuesday, following retired general Sami Anan’s announcement he would run against incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in an election scheduled for March, the army detained Anan for questioning. In an official statement, the army accused Anan of “violations and crimes” including document forgery and “incitement against the armed forces,” the New York Times reported.

Anan, 69, was not considered a strong challenger. But his detention comes after three other potential presidential candidates have already dropped out of the race, including former prime minister Ahmed Shafik, who reportedly withdrew due to threats he’d be prosecuted on corruption charges. Anwar Sadat, a nephew of the former president, also withdrew, citing official intimidation and harassment. Sisi’s last significant challenger, the leftist lawyer Khaled Ali, faces disqualification if he fails to overturn a criminal conviction for public indecency on March 7.

The move on Anan shows Sisi still enjoys complete control over the military, despite recent moves to replace the army chief and head of the spy agency.

Liberia: Transfer Striker

LIBERIA

Transfer Striker

The only African to be named FIFA World Player of the Year, in 1995, incoming Liberian President George Weah, now 51, is used to winning. But his inauguration on Monday was not so much a celebration of victory as the opening whistle of a new, more important and more difficult challenge.

“I do not promise you quick fixes or miracles. Instead, my pledge to you today is that my administration, with your help, will make steady and deliberate progress towards achieving the hopes and aspirations that you cherish in your heart for Mama Liberia,” Weah said in his inaugural speech.

Weah trounced incumbent Vice President Joseph Boakai in the final round of presidential elections in December, and his inauguration marks the first peaceful transfer of power for Liberia since 1944, the New York Times reported. But the very characteristics that made the former soccer star popular with voters could spell trouble for his administration.

The key to Liberia’s impressive rebound from the assassinations of two presidents, two consecutive civil wars and the brutal reign of Charles Taylor – now in prison for war crimes in neighboring Sierra Leone – was the international savvy of departing President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Having worked for the World Bank and the United Nations, she was a technocrat with a genius for securing economic aid and (to a lesser extent) deploying it.

Foreign aid amounts for more than half of Liberia’s gross national income, making it one of the most aid-dependent countries in the world, according to the World Bank. And many believe Johnson Sirleaf herself was the primary reason the money poured in.

“I think a lot of it had to do with her competence and strategy. Once she came into office, donors lined up,” Steven Radelet, an economist at Georgetown University and former adviser to Johnson Sirleaf, told Reuters.

Even before Weah’s election, cracks had begun to show in the façade. Worldwide, high levels of foreign aid are notorious for undermining governments and encouraging corruption, and Liberia wasn’t entirely able to escape the same fate. Despite virtuous promises to route aid through government programs – seen as key to empowering the state – foreign money continued to go directly to aid projects: Only 12% of aid to Liberia in the 2015-16 fiscal year was “on-budget,” the Economist wrote. Meanwhile, Johnson Sirleaf made a crucial misstep in relinquishing her personal oversight of aid projects, resulting in a situation in which “few think Liberia’s government is in control,” the news magazine said.

Now, many fear that Weah – a comparative neophyte – will face difficulty matching his predecessor’s record in either attracting or deploying aid. Since his election as a senator in 2014, he has rarely attended parliament and he has not introduced or co-sponsored any legislation. His soccer career gave him valuable international experience, but he is a high-school dropout with little formal education – a fact that only seemed to endear him to voters.

Radelet told Reuters that some aid programs that ended last year had not been renewed because donors were anxious about the presidential transition, and he predicted that trend would likely continue. Meanwhile, Liberia’s young people – for whom Weah is a hero – are no longer satisfied by peace alone. They want an end to corruption and wholesale improvements in healthcare and education.

To deliver, Weah will need to perform some fancy footwork.

Democratic Republic Of The Congo: Pass The Baton

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Pass the Baton

At least six people were killed in the Democratic Republic of Congo Sunday, as fresh protests broke out against the continued rule of President Joseph Kabila.

Another 57 people were injured and 111 were arrested across the country, the New York Times reported.

Kabila’s second official term as president ended in December 2016, but the electoral commission delayed elections under the pretext of updating the voter rolls. But the impression he simply means to hold onto power indefinitely deepened when he failed to step down at the end of 2017 as agreed under a deal brokered by the Catholic Church.

Now, Protestant and Muslim leaders have joined their Catholic counterparts and some 100 civil society groups in speaking out against him – sparking renewed anger.

“I like athletics,” a prominent reverend said on national television. “I especially like a race – a relay race, where a person passes a baton to the second person, to the third person, to the fourth person.”

Angola: Out With The Old

ANGOLA

Out with the Old

When longtime strongman José Eduardo dos Santos announced he was stepping down as president of Angola after 38 years late last year, few expected that much would change under his handpicked successor. But President João Lourenço has proven to be more independent than anybody expected.

Saying on the eve of elections that as president he would have “all the power,” Lourenço – who is popularly known as JLo and has been christened “the Relentless Remover” on social media – wasn’t speaking rhetorically. Under a new constitution adopted in 2010, Angola’s president controls all organs of the government, making the country an authoritarian state.

He lost no time in wielding that power, either, the Economist reported.

Two months after taking office, Lourenço on Nov. 15 ousted Isabel dos Santos, the oldest daughter of the former president and said to be Africa’s richest woman, from her position at the head of Sonangol, the national oil company – a clear signal JLo wasn’t taking instructions from her father. On Nov. 20, Lourenço fired the police chief and the head of the intelligence agency. And last week he fired another of the ex-president’s children, José Filomeno dos Santos, from his post as chairman of the nation’s $5 billion sovereign-wealth fund, shortly after devaluing the country’s currency, Bloomberg reported.

Alongside those moves, Sonangol announced an investigation into its former chief executive for a “possible misappropriation” of funds, Agence France-Presse reported.

For her part, Isabel dos Santos denied any wrongdoing and blasted a CNN report on the probe as “fake news,” according to Africa News.

“Fake News CNN. There is NO corruption probe! Totally False allegation by @cnnbrk (CNN Breaking News), get your facts right,” she said in a tweet posted on Twitter following the report.

Her official statement said, “The public prosecution service of Angola has informed that it has not received any criminal complaint against Ms. Isabel dos Santos.”

AFP confirmed that statement as accurate. But the agency quoted a Sonangol spokesman as saying the company had indeed launched “an internal commission of inquiry to investigate the information published.”

Earlier, the local Novo Jornal and Portugal’s Jornal Económico reported that the firm had identified a suspect transfer of $67 million to Dubai and said investigators were looking into an almost $12-million monthly payment to a Portuguese company in which Isabel was the principal investor. The payments began when she became the head of the state oil giant.

To many, Lourenço’s shakeup is more than welcome. The stupendous wealth of the dos Santos clan never sat too well with ordinary people – who mostly live in poverty, with a life expectancy of just 60 years. But frustrations have grown as the drop in oil prices further eroded the country’s economy, which depends on oil for more than 90 percent of exports.

It’s too early to tell if Lourenço will really bring about the “revolution” forecast by Luaty Beirão, an Angolan rapper and activist who was jailed by the old administration.

But by cleaning house, observers say he’s made a strong start.

Niger: Armed Response

NIGER

Armed Response

When an ambush killed five Nigerien troops and four US soldiers last October, Americans weren’t the only ones surprised to learn of the US military presence in the poverty-stricken country on the edge of the Sahara.

People in Niger were stunned, too, reported Buzzfeed News. And not all of them were happy.

“I won’t lie to you: People don’t like it,” Daouda Dakoye, a 34-year-old teacher, told the website. “In Niger, nobody knew America had 800 soldiers [stationed here] until after the attack. We see the French soldiers coming and going, building things, transporting materials. But the American soldiers — I mean, where are they? What are they hiding?”

Rated by the United Nations as one of the world’s least-developed countries, Niger is battling several Islamist groups linked to both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda along its long, loosely governed border with Mali, noted the Washington Post.

Leading up to the Oct. 4 ambush near the village of Tongo Tongo, militants had staged at least 46 attacks, mostly targeting local security forces, since February 2016, according to the United Nations. Niger had already declared a state of emergency in various districts of the area. Last week, Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahraoui, who was a member of Al Qaeda’s regional branch before pledging allegiance to the Islamic State, claimed responsibility for the ambush.

Meanwhile, in neighboring Mali, some 4,000 French troops and 10,000 UN peacekeepers haven’t been able to eliminate Islamist militants altogether, nearly five years after France’s military intervention in 2013.

On Wednesday, Italian lawmakers approved sending troops to Niger to fight human trafficking and terrorism, the Associated Press reported. And French President Emmanuel Macron flew into Niger’s capital, Niamey, just before Christmas to pledge to continue the fight against extremists there in 2018, AFP reported.

Why, then, are some Nigeriens concerned about the presence of US troops? Many fear that the deployment of armed drones – as requested by the Nigerien government after the October ambush – could lead to a rash of controversial killings like those that have angered citizens of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

(The Intercept news site reported in 2015 that airstrikes, usually by drone, conducted by US special operations units during Operation Haymaker in the Afghan theater had killed people other than their intended targets nine times out of 10.)

“Given the recent authorization to engage in offensive operations, we’re also concerned about the parameters of US operations,” saidCorinne Dufka, associate director for West Africa at Human Rights Watch. “The US needs to be transparent about the scope of any operations and fully respect human rights.”

Accusations of civilian fatalities have dogged the expansion of America’s military presence in Africa, where American soldiers conduct around 10 missions a day – or 3,500 exercises, programs, and engagements per year, the US military’s top commander for Africa recently revealed.

For instance, the US denied claims that civilians were killed as collateral damage in an August raid on a Somali village, even after Somali officials had admitted that 10 civilians, including children, had been killed.

Death by drone could be more contentious.

Africa: The Curse Of Cheap Money

AFRICA

The Curse of Cheap Money

Africa may face a debt crisis in 2018, thanks to a boom in lending to low- and lower-middle-income country governments following the global financial crisis of a decade ago.

Such lending quadrupled from $57 billion in 2007 to $260 billion by 2016, noted Kenya’s Daily Nation newspaper. The reason for the increase was quantitative easing and low interest rates in the most developed countries – which made lending to developing countries at higher interest rates more attractive.

But with interest rates now rising, those same poor countries are having trouble paying the money back.

Kenya’s debt now totals 32 percent of GDP, Uganda’s is 57 percent of GDP, Tanzania’s 63 percent, and Mozambique’s a whopping 299 percent, the paper said. At the low end, those numbers aren’t necessarily red flags – the US debt-to-GDP ratio was higher than 100 percent from 2012 to 2016. But a steady upward trend could hurt credit ratings and Mozambique was already unable to pay back its loans in January 2017, Deutsche Welle noted.

R50bn expected to be seized in 17 State capture cases – AFU

R50bn expected to be seized in 17 State capture cases – AFU: The Asset Forfeiture Unit (AFU) is hoping to seize at least R50-billion in 17 cases it is currently investigating related to State capture, acting head of operations advocate Knorx Molelle said on Tuesday. In an interview with eNCA, Molelle said his team had already prioritised six matters which were before the courts, awaiting preservation orders.

Without rain, S Africa's Cape Town may run out of water by April

Without rain, S Africa's Cape Town may run out of water by April: South Africa's Cape Town, one of the world's iconic tourist destinations, could run out of water by April as the city's worst drought in a century risks forcing residents to join queues for emergency rations. 'Day Zero' – the date taps are due to run dry – has crept forward to April 22 as city authorities race to build desalination plants and drill underground boreholes.

Pizza Hut To Open In Harrare

https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Retail/pizza-hut-to-open-shop-in-zim-20180115

Russia Revisits An Old Cold War Battle Ground

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The Steinhoff MeltdownContinues

https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Retail/steinhoff-metldown-keeps-going-20180114-2

Tunisia: It's The Economy!

TUNISIA

It’s the Economy, Stupid

Tunisia’s economic woes sparked protests and clashes with police across more than 20 towns in the fledgling democracy after the government hiked prices of staple goods and introduced new taxes to try to rein in the deficit.

The demonstrations have grown over three days, Reuters reported. On Tuesday, protesters attacked police stations and government buildings and burned cars. Demonstrators also threw Molotov cocktails at a Jewish school on the southern tourist island of Djerba. About 50 policemen were wounded and 237 people have been arrested.

Since the Arab Spring in 2011, Tunisia has seen nine democratic governments come and go – as nobody has been able to solve the country’s economic woes.

In exchange for financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tunisia agreed to slash spending. But cutting subsidies and hiking taxes is difficult due to youth unemployment of more than 25 percent and rising inflation, Bloomberg reported.

Congo may more than double tax on critical global cobalt supply

Congo may more than double tax on critical global cobalt supply: The Democratic Republic of Congo is preparing to more than double a tax on two-thirds of global cobalt supply, potentially increasing the cost of the critical battery metal just as the world begins to embrace electric vehicles. Congo, the world’s biggest cobalt producer, will increase the royalty miners pay on exports of the metal to 5% from 2% if it opts to categorize cobalt as a “strategic substance,” Mines Minister Martin Kabwelulu told the country’s Senate last week.

Nigeria:More People Equal More Strife

NIGERIA

More People Equals More Strife

Nigeria’s president blamed communal violence that has killed at least 83 people on the country’s rapidly expanding population.

“While the land size has not changed and will not change, urban sprawl and development have simply reduced land area both for peasant farming and cattle grazing,” Reuters quoted a statement from the office of President Muhammadu Buhari as saying.

Since Dec. 31, at least 83 people have been killed in clashes between Muslim cattle herders and Christian farmers, mostly in the central state of Benue.

Nigeria’s population was around 63 million when the West African country gained independence in 1960, compared with a population now “estimated at close to 200 million,” the statement explained. According to the United Nations, Nigeria will become the world’s third largest population, behind India and China, by 2050.

Strife is rare among Nigeria’s 250 different ethnic groups, split about 50-50 between Christians and Muslims. However, the Islamist Boko Haram continues to plague the country with suicide bombings and other attacks.

South Africa: Taking Action

SOUTH AFRICA

Taking Action

South Africa’s parliament will review its rules related to removing the president following a Dec. 29 ruling by the constitutional court that lawmakers had failed to hold President Jacob Zuma to account for a scandal relating to state-funded upgrades to his home.

The court gave parliament six months to put in place a mechanism for removing a president. A parliamentary subcommittee will meet this week to draft changes to that effect, which will then be debated in the house, Reuters quoted a statement by the National Assembly as saying.

Zuma, 75, has survived numerous no-confidence votes, mostly related to corruption allegations. He denies any wrongdoing.

The recent ruling relates to a 2016 decision, in which the court ordered Zuma to pay back some of the $15 million in state funds spent on “security upgrades” to his country home, which included a cattle pen, a chicken run and a swimming pool.

Libya: A Desperate Choice

LIBYA

A Desperate Choice

Since the demise of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya, the country the flamboyant leader once held together through a combination of charisma and military might, has descended into seemingly unending chaos.

Now, the people may well face a choice between democracy and chaos versus a return to stability alongside a new military dictatorship.

Since 2014, the country has had two rival governments – the UN-backed Government of National Accord headed by Fayez al-Sarraj and the so-called Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa Haftar, which controls a large part of eastern Libya and its oil fields, Al-Jazeera explained.

And for the past few years, various armed militias, both independent and allied with the two governments, have competed for power across the country, becoming “magnets for rogue groups and organized crime – where abuse, cruelty and extortion are common currencies,” noted CNN.

More recently, it came to light that hundreds of African refugees are being bought and sold in “slave markets” across the country every week, mostly migrants seeking passage with people smugglers through Libya across the Mediterranean to Europe, Al-Jazeera reported separately.

Amid that chaos, Haftar in December dismissed the UN-backed government as obsolete and UN-brokered peace talks between the two sides, presenting himself as a Gaddafi-style strongman who can bring order to the country and hinting he may seek the mandate of the people in elections expected in 2018, Reuters reported.

“The 17th of December has arrived and brought with it the end of the so-called Skhirat agreement,” Haftar said last month, referring to an agreement signed in Morocco’s Skhirat in 2015 that established Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) for a period of one year. Under that deal, the GNA could only be renewed once.

What Haftar is proposing to replace it is essentially military rule, Al-Jazeera quoted Anas El Gomati, founder of the Tripoli-based Sadeq Institute, as saying.

“Haftar today seeks to exploit the political vacuum and suggests the Libyan National Army – an amalgamation of largely tribal militia groups and Salafi groups – are able to take political control of the country,” El Gomati said. “Ultimately, Haftar offers a return to a military state.”

Given the ineffectiveness of the UN and the misery plaguing the country, his promise of order will no doubt sound good to many Libyans, some of whom are already trying to restore their cities and rebuild their lives. But his success or failure will more likely depend on his ability to carefully navigate the patronage system and exploit personal, tribal and political relationships. Similarly, he enjoys the backing of governments and other power brokers with an interest in maintaining the status quo in the region.

“A democratic or pluralistic Libya, with the ability to hold elected officials to account, is an existential threat to Egyptian and Emirati regime maintenance,” El Gomati said. “A military regime in Libya would sober expectations regionally and return it to (the) status quo.”

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Two Mugabe Cabinet Ministers Arrested In Zimbabwe For Corruption

https://www.fin24.com/Economy/two-former-mugabe-cabinet-ministers-arrested-in-zimbabwe-20180106

Some Words Of Advice For President-Designate Cyril Ramaphosa

Mr.President-designate it has been my pleasure to live in South Africa for five years in the past. What a beautiful and a rich country. What wonderful people of all colors! I had the most fun in my life living in South Africa. I would be living in Cape Town right now were it not for family commitments.

OK now you are going to get the opportunity to mend and fix South Africa. Please study the late president Lyndon B. Johnson. He had immense experience in government. He was a political genius. When he became president, he was shocked to find out that when he gave an order, some bureaucrat 12 levels down would decline to carry it out or modify it. There was nothing that he could do about it.

Despite the majesty and power of your office, you are going to begin to feel powerless in many ways. Please use the great selling skills that you used in business to win the hearts, the minds, and the trust of South African people of all races. A grass roots awakening is needed to send the message to politicians and bureaucrats that corruption and cronyism will no longer be tolerated. The loud and strong voice of the people will give a warning that the old ways of doing business will not be tolerated. You need to truly be "a man of the people." You need to constantly be talking to and listening to people of all economic classes and races. Not all of them will like or love you, but if you make some good moves you will earn all of their respect.

Of equal importance will be a cabinet of the best and the brightest people in South Africa. Their color and political affiliations are not important. They need great intellect,character, and a vision to bring South Africa to its full potential.

A cornerstone of your presidency must be a zero toleration for corruption, stealing, and dishonesty in government service. This is at the Federal government level and at the state government level.

Sir your whole life was an exercise to prepare you for this moment. Approach it with joy and optimism.

One final suggestion is that you keep a portrait of Nelson Mandela in your office and in your home. Please never forget this wonderful and loving man. Please go on to fulfill his vision for South Africa. I wish that I could vote for you for president!!!!

Ethiopia: Free At Last?

ETHIOPIA

Free At Last?

Ethiopia announced plans to close a notorious detention center and release some inmates in what rights workers hailed as an amnesty for at least some of the country’s thousands of political prisoners.

Hailemariam Desalegn, the prime minister, did not explicitly mention political prisoners in his address, however, and some cautioned that it might be too early to celebrate, the New York Times reported.

“He was very equivocal,” the paper quoted Addis Ababa lawyer Yacob Hailemariam as saying.

Ethiopia has never acknowledged that it holds political prisoners. But activists and other critics are often imprisoned under the country’s antiterrorism law or on charges of seeking to overthrow the Constitution, Hailemariam said.

Still, closing Maekelawi prison, a detention center in Addis Ababa, as the prime minister promised, would be symbolic, said Soleyana Gebremichael, the director of the Ethiopia Human Rights Project in Washington.

“Whenever you think of torture, you think of Maekelawi,” Gebremichael said.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Bully Pulpit

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Bully Pulpit

The head of the Catholic Church in the Democratic Republic of Congo blasted the government for “barbarism” following a crackdown on demonstrators that left at least seven people dead.

Cardinal Laurent Monsengwo accused security forces of opening fire on peaceful protesters and desecrating places of worship on Sunday, Reuters reported. The protests against President Joseph Kabila for refusing to step down had been organized by Catholic activists.

“We can only denounce, condemn and stigmatize the actions of the supposedly valiant men in uniform, which are, unfortunately, nothing more, nothing less than barbarism,” Monsengwo said.

Kabila is already serving beyond his allotted term under an agreement brokered by the church. And a decision by the electoral commission to delay elections that were promised for 2017 until the end of this year has revived fears he won’t step down after all.

Dozens have died in related protests over the past two years and militia violence across the country has also increased, Reuters noted.