Highlights
- More signs are emerging that Kenya will struggle to ensure a free and fair election on Oct. 26.
- The perception of a flawed election will ratchet up violence in opposition strongholds in the country's western provinces, the Mathare slum of Nairobi and elsewhere.
- Long-term instability and ethnic violence in Kenya would be felt across East Africa.
More violence seems to be on the horizon for the East African powerhouse of Kenya. Authorities have called for the arrest of the sister of Raila Odinga, the country's main opposition leader, after some of his supporters reportedly attacked election staff and destroyed polling material in western Kenya. As the presidential election do-over set for Oct. 26 approaches, one election board official has fled to the United States, citing threats on her life, while the chief of the board has gone on leave. Odinga, for his part, has called for the "mother of all protests" on the day of the vote.
Kenya has been mired in political uncertainty since Sept. 1, when the country's Supreme Court declared the existence of voting irregularities and annulled the Aug. 8 election. The possibility of prolonged rioting in Kenya, which is an economic, political, security and diplomatic hub, threatens the long-term stability of the region. But delaying the election may not be a good solution either, because a postponement raises thorny constitutional and scheduling questions.
Troubles Mount
On Oct. 10, Odinga — the only candidate who could realistically challenge incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta for his position — announced his withdrawal from the race, claiming the election was rigged against him. The following day, a high court ruled that a minor candidate (who garnered less than 1 percent of the vote in the Aug. 8 election) could run, paving the way for several other minor candidates to join the field. But perhaps most troubling, Roselyn Akombe, a senior official of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), announced on Oct. 18 that she had quit the board overseeing the upcoming election and fled the country.
In her announcement, Akombe, who is now in New York, cited threats from all sides and said the menacing statements have severely undermined the commission's ability to carry out a free and credible election. This development will encourage the Odinga camp, the National Super Alliance, to push harder for the postponement of the vote. The perennial candidate Odinga has agitated for a delay since he withdrew (though reports indicate that he hasn't filed the paperwork to officially quit the race). Nevertheless, the ruling Jubilee Party, led by Kenyatta, has doubled down on its effort to carry out the election as planned.
The hyperpartisan fight is infecting the IEBC, and the threats are not to be taken lightly. Indeed, Chris Msando, a senior IEBC official in charge of information technology, was found dead just days before the Aug. 8 election, throwing a spotlight on the commission. He had been tortured, and authorities have not identified the culprits.
A Kenyatta Victory
With less than two days to go, the window for delaying the election for a second time is closing fast. The ballots, printed in Dubai, have begun arriving. With Odinga out of the race (though his name may still appear on the ballots), Kenyatta is all but guaranteed a victory, given his coalition's lock on the ethnic groups needed to win.
Violence in opposition strongholds is sure to follow any result that favors Kenyatta. Though he has not explicitly advocated attacks, Odinga has called for a massive protest on Oct. 26. The rioting would likely be concentrated in the far west of the country, especially in and around Kisumu in the southwestern Nyanza province, and in and around the Mathare slum in the capital of Nairobi. Some instability is possible in Mombasa and other areas along the coast as well as protesters vent their frustration with a seemingly stolen election.
For decades Kenya has struggled to manage its ethnic diversity, and ethnic clashes reminiscent of the sustained violence of 2008-09 are possible. During those troubles, over 1,000 people died, hundreds of thousands were displaced and the Kenyan economy — and by extension, that of landlocked Uganda — was severely damaged for close to four months.
The Odinga camp could also try to mount some kind of resistance against the ruling party and president in the belief that they rigged the election. Though such resistance would likely be purely political, the opposition has become increasingly hardened with each recent blow — real or imaged — to the political system's credibility. Consequently, sustained resistance remains a low-probability, but high-risk, scenario that could extend national uncertainty and instability for weeks or months.
The election, moreover, could easily taint the president's next term. A sullied second term — perhaps the result of mounting evidence of irregularities during the election or a subsequent crackdown on protests by security forces — would hamper the president's ability to carry out his agenda and could complicate Kenya's relations with Western donor countries.
A Complicated Delay
On the off chance of a postponement, the country's political system would have to confront difficult questions about Kenyatta and the presidency. Would Kenyatta remain as acting president until his term officially ends on Nov. 1, or would he be forced to vacate the office to make way for a temporary caretaker? The country's constitution does not detail the procedures required in light of an election cancellation and a failure to hold the vote within the mandated 60-day time frame. This situation would likely require a Supreme Court ruling, which would take an undetermined amount of time for it to confer and render its decision while a new election calendar is set.
Even then, a new election calendar would not settle many outstanding issues for Odinga and his numerous supporters. The Kenyatta camp has been loath to accede to Odinga's demands. A new date might increase the odds of Odinga joining the political fray, but it would not guarantee it if the candidate believes that the factors underpinning the stalled political process have not changed.
So, Kenya's situation remains volatile. A gulf continues to separate the opposition and ruling parties on the matter of the election. Further violence and instability appear likely, and they may not be settled on Oct. 26. Moreover, extended volatility at home could have security implications abroad, pulling Nairobi's attention from its investment in the African Union mission to stabilize Somalia. Given Kenya's regional standing and connections, the election and its outcome could end up sending shivers through East Africa.
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