Angola-Follow The Leader

ANGOLA

Follow the Leader

Angolans go to the polls Wednesday to elect their next president and parliament. But what they are actually doing is writing a new chapter in the history of their young country.

Here’s the obvious change: Africa’s second-longest-serving leader, President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, is stepping down after 37 years, a period defined by a brutal fight for independence from Portugal and a bloody, decades-long civil war.

Here’s the good news: The People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) and the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) will not fight over trenches, airstrips and dusty roads through scrubby forests. They will battle for the backing of 9 million voters, as the Guardian wrote.

And there’s more reason to be cautiously optimistic about this oil-rich country’s future.

The president’s handpicked successor, Defense Minister Joao Lourenco, is all but sure to win. And while Lourenco was a surprise choice, he’s a strong one, the Washington Post reported. He’s respected both at home and abroad, having held multiple high-level government positions. He’s also married to the World Bank’s former executive director for Angola, Nigeria and South Africa.

Indeed, Lourenco has a track record clean of corruption, a rarity in Angola, whose capital, Luanda, by the way, was recently ranked the most expensive city in the world, the Independent reports. The country is plagued by nepotism and elites lining their pockets even as their fellow citizens remain entrenched in poverty, the New York Times wrote.

And with oil prices sinking and inflation rising, Angolans have become increasingly restless as botched infrastructure projects, a lack of access to basic needs and a stagnant economy have squeezed them.

Sensing the dissatisfaction, the MPLA has run on a platform of “improve what is good, correct what is wrong,” Africa.com opined.

Still, observers urge caution: The status quo will likely remain for a while, despite the change of leadership, Deutsche Welle reported.

First, Lourenco will be beholden to party stalwarts in the government whose jobs are guaranteed by a statute that breezed through parliament during the last session.

Second, the current president’s daughter, Isabel dos Santos, is head of the state-run oil firm, Sonangol. Considered Africa’s first female billionaire, she won’t likely be going anywhere anytime soon, either.

Third, there’s concern over the crackdown on speech in advance of the elections, Human Right Watch reported.

Still, the MLPA is expected to pay a price for ruling incompetently. Recent polls show the party’s support is dwindling. They’re expected to win only 38 percent of the vote, which is enough to be the largest party in parliament, but hardly constitutes a mandate.

Also, the oil crisis and the strife of the past few decades have “focused minds…realizing the party is over,” said the Guardian.

So while a strong opposition and an ailing governing party could make life hard for Lourenco, it could also be an opportunity to reach across the aisle and let fresh air into Angola’s government and its future.

“We hope,” said Marcolino Moco, a former prime minister who is now a fierce opponent of dos Santos. “We have to try. We have to hope.”

https://www.stratfor.com/article/angola-age-old-story-money-power-and-family