Nigeria Tested by Rapid Rise in Population
Benedicte Kurzen for The New York Times
A market in Lagos, Nigeria, a country whose high birthrates presage a demographic crisis. More Photos »
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
Published: April 14, 2012
LAGOS, Nigeria — In a quarter-century, at the rate Nigeria is growing, 300 million people — a population about as big as that of the present-day United States — will live in a country the size of Arizona and New Mexico. In this commercial hub, where the area’s population has by some estimates nearly doubled over 15 years to 21 million, living standards for many are falling.
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Benedicte Kurzen for The New York Times
In Ketu, Nigeria, a newborn boy is attended to by the light of cellphones, the power having gone out. More Photos »
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Lifelong residents like Peju Taofika and her three granddaughters inhabit a room in a typical apartment block known as a “Face Me, Face You” because whole families squeeze into 7-by-11-foot rooms along a narrow corridor. Up to 50 people share a kitchen, toilet and sink — though the pipes in the neighborhood often no longer carry water.
At Alapere Primary School, more than 100 students cram into most classrooms, two to a desk.
As graduates pour out of high schools and universities, Nigeria’s unemployment rate is nearly 50 percent for people in urban areas ages 15 to 24 — driving crime and discontent.
The growing upper-middle class also feels the squeeze, as commutes from even nearby suburbs can run two to three hours.
Last October, the United Nations announced the global population had breached seven billion and would expand rapidly for decades, taxing natural resources if countries cannot better manage the growth.
Nearly all of the increase is in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population rise far outstrips economic expansion. Of the roughly 20 countries where women average more than five children, almost all are in the region.
Elsewhere in the developing world, in Asia and Latin America, fertility rates have fallen sharply in recent generations and now resemble those in the United States — just above two children per woman. That transformation was driven in each country by a mix of educational and employment opportunities for women, access tocontraception, urbanization and an evolving middle class. Whether similar forces will defuse the population bomb in sub-Sarahan Africa is unclear.
“The pace of growth in Africa is unlike anything else ever in history and a critical problem,” said Joel E. Cohen, a professor of population at Rockefeller University in New York City. “What is effective in the context of these countries may not be what worked in Latin America orKerala or Bangladesh.”
Across sub-Saharan Africa, alarmed governments have begun to act, often reversing longstanding policies that encouraged or accepted large families. Nigeria made contraceptives free last year, and officials are promoting smaller families as a key to economic salvation, holding up the financial gains in nations like Thailand as inspiration.
Nigeria, already the world’s sixth most populous nation with 167 million people, is a crucial test case, since its success or failure at bringing down birthrates will have outsize influence on the world’s population. If this large nation rich with oil cannot control its growth, what hope is there for the many smaller, poorer countries?
“Population is key,” said Peter Ogunjuyigbe, a demographer at Obafemi Awolowo University in the small central city of Ile-Ife. “If you don’t take care of population, schools can’t cope, hospitals can’t cope, there’s not enough housing — there’s nothing you can do to have economic development.”
The Nigerian government is rapidly building infrastructure but cannot keep up, and some experts worry that it, and other African nations, will not act forcefully enough to rein in population growth. For two decades, the Nigerian government has recommended that families limit themselves to four children, with little effect.
Although he acknowledged that more countries were trying to control population, Parfait M. Eloundou-Enyegue, a professor of development sociology at Cornell University, said, “Many countries only get religion when faced with food riots or being told they have the highest fertility rate in the world or start worrying about political unrest.”
In Nigeria, experts say, the swelling ranks of unemployed youths with little hope have fed the growth of the radical Islamist group Boko Haram, which has bombed or burned more than a dozen churches and schools this year.
Internationally, the African population boom means more illegal immigration, already at a high, according to Frontex, the European border agency. There are up to 400,000 undocumented Africans in the United States.
Nigeria, like many sub-Saharan African countries, has experienced a slight decline in average fertility rates, to about 5.5 last year from 6.8 in 1975. But this level of fertility, combined with an extremely young population, still puts such countries on a steep and disastrous growth curve. Half of Nigerian women are under 19, just entering their peak childbearing years.
Women Left Behind
Statistics are stunning. Sub-Saharan Africa, which now accounts for 12 percent of the world’s population, will account for more than a third by 2100, by many projections.
Because Africa was for centuries agriculturally based and sparsely populated, it made sense for leaders to promote high fertility rates. Family planning, introduced in the 1970s by groups like Usaid, was initially regarded as foreign, and later on, money and attention were diverted from family planning to Africa’s AIDS crisis.
“Women in sub-Saharan Africa were left behind,” said Jean-Pierre Guengant, director of research at the Research Institute for Development, in Paris. The drastic transition from high to low birthrates that took place in poor countries in Asia, Latin America and North Africa has yet to happen here.
That transition often brings substantial economic benefits, said Eduard Bos, a population specialist at the World Bank. As the last large population group reaches working age, the number of adults in the labor force is high relative to more dependent groups — the young and the elderly — for a time. If managed well, that creates capital that can be used to improve health and education and to develop new industries.
And that has happened elsewhere. Per-capita gross domestic product in Latin America, Asia and North Africa increased between three and six times as population was brought under control, Dr. Guengant said. During that same period it has increased only marginally in many African countries, despite robust general economic growth.
In Nigeria, policymakers are studying how to foster the transition, and its attendant financial benefits, here. In the ramshackle towns of the Oriade area near Ile-Ife, where streets are lined with stalls selling prepaid cellphone cards and food like pounded yam, Dr. Ogunjuyigbe’s team goes door to door studying attitudes toward family size and how it affects health and wealth. Many young adults, particularly educated women, now want two to four children. But the preferences of men, particularly older men, have been slower to change — crucial in a patriarchal culture where polygamy is widespread.
At his concrete home in the town of Ipetumodu, Abel Olanyi, 35, a laborer, said he has four children and wants two more. “The number you have depends on your strength and capacity,” he said, his wife sitting silently by his side.
Large families signal prosperity and importance in African cultures; some cultures let women attend village meetings only after they have had their 11th child. And a history of high infant mortality, since improved thanks to interventions like vaccination, makes families reluctant to have fewer children.
Muriana Taiwo, 45, explained that it was “God’s will” for him to have 12 children by his three wives, calling each child a “blessing” because so many of his own siblings had died.
In a deeply religious country where many Roman Catholics and Muslims oppose contraception, politicians and doctors broach the topic gingerly, and change is slow. Posters promote “birth spacing,” not “birth control.” Supplies of contraceptives are often erratic.
Cultural Factors
In Asian countries, women’s contraceptive use skyrocketed from less than 20 percent to 60 to 80 percent in decades. In Latin America, requiring girls to finish high school correlated with a sharp drop in birthrates.
But contraceptive use is rising only a fraction of a percent annually — in many sub-Saharan African nations, it is under 20 percent — and, in surveys, even well-educated women in the region often want four to six children.
“At this pace it will take 100-plus years to arrive at a point where fertility is controlled,” Dr. Guengant said.
There are also regional differences. The average number of children per woman in the wealthier south of Nigeria has decreased slightly in the last five years, but increased to 7.3 in the predominantly Muslim north, where women often cannot go to a family planning clinic unless accompanied by a man.
The United Nations estimates that the global population will stabilize at 10 billion in 2100, assuming that declining birthrates will eventually yield a global average of 2.1 children per woman. At a rate of even 2.6, Dr. Guengant said, the number becomes 16 billion.
There are signs that the shifting economics and lifestyles of middle-class Africans may help turn the tide, Dr. Ogunjuyigbe said. As Nigeria urbanizes, children’s help is not needed in fields; the extended families have broken down. “Children were seen as a kind of insurance for the future; now they are a liability for life,” he said.
Waiting in a women’s health clinic, Ayoola Adeeyo, 42, said she wanted her four children, ages 6 to 17, to attend university, and did not want more children.
“People used to want 6 or 7 or even 12, but nobody can do that now. It’s the economics,” said Ms. Adeeyo, elegant in a flowing green dress and matching head wrap. “It costs a lot to raise a child.”
Dr. Eloundou-Enyegue worries that Africa’s modestly declining birthrates reflect relatively rich, educated people reducing to invest in raising “quality” children, while poor people continue to have many offspring, strengthening divisions between haves and have-nots. “When you have a system with a large degree of corruption and inequality, it’s hard not to be playing the lottery because it increases the chances that one child will succeed,” he said.
In Nigeria’s desperately poor neighbor, Niger, women have on average more than seven children, and men consider their ideal to be more than 12. But with land divided among so many sons, the size of a typical family plot has fallen by more than a third since 2005, meaning there is little long-term hope for feeding children, said Amadou Sayo, of the aid group CARE.
Babatunde Osotimehin, executive director of the United Nations Population Fund and a former Nigerian health minister, said he is optimistic for a turnaround if governments better support education for girls and contraceptive services. “We can see rapid changes, but that’s up in the air, because you have to be aggressive and consistent.”
Birthrates have edged down to about four children per woman in Kenya, Ethiopia and Ghana.
One recent morning in Lagos, hundreds of patients waited at the Ketu district clinic for treatments like measles vaccines, malaria pills and birth control.
“Of course when the population grows so quickly, that stresses hospitals,” said Dr. Morayo Ismail — although migration from rural areas has also swelled Lagos’s population. A mother of one herself, Dr. Ismail said many poor women still want four or more children.
That evening at the clinic, Bola Agboola, 30, gave birth to her second child. After nurses swaddled the boy, dispensed with the placenta and declared Ms. Agboola well, they whooped, praising God.
Then, as Ms. Agboola’s husband entered, some started another chant: “Now start another one. Start another one.”
- Ant-man
- San Anselmo, CA
Education of women is the absolute best way to reduce population of a society. A number of things happen in this process. Woman's fertility window is reduced. Women are capable of having children at 16, if they are in school for six more years, their fertility rate is reduced. In the very process of going to school she is educated about herself and the society around her and she will be able to better educate her children.
The miracle occurs when the men in society want women to go to school?- workerbee
- Florida
"Nearly all of the increase [population growth] is in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population rise far outstrips economic expansion. Of the roughly 20 countries where women average more than five children, almost all are in the region."
The only outcome of the senseless population explosion will be ecological and human catastrophe. Haven't these people ever heard of family planning and birth control? In fact, Africa's out-of-control population explosion, far outstripping economic expansion, proves that Thomas Malthus was right nearly 200 years ago.- Air
- Burlington, NJ
The image "A market in Lagos" is picturesque! Elisabeth Rosenthal definitely has an eye for beauty. I might know where she was positioned to take that photograph.
Anyhow, Nigeria is an exciting country and the people are equally so. Forget the negative publicity from the scammers. They are talents looking for outlets for their skills. The US is productively using hackers, and Zack Zuckerberg is proudly "Hacker-in-chief". What is required in Nigeria is progressive leadership and all the talk about population will become irrelevant. Japan with a pop of about 127million has a size of 145,000sq miles and Nigeria with about 140million people has a size about twice the size of California(164,000sq miles). Indeed the population of Nigeria is a major asset waiting to be harnessed, period!- Steve Bolger
- New York City
The triumph of ignoramuses is assured because the people smart enough to understand the law of diminution at the margin are already ceasing to procreate heirs to inherit the toxic waste dump.- Jimmy
- Lexington, KY
So why western countries blame china on the same issue? If no control, china might have had 3 billion people till now. India needs birth control in the near future.- Howard G
- New York
Yesterday, I had occasion to ride the BX12 Bus across its complete route - beginning in at Pelham-Bay Park, all the way to 207th Street in the Inwood section of Upper Manhattan.
Except for the complete canopy of umbrellas and awnings, the scene from White Plains Road, all the way to 207th Street, was, in many ways, exactly like that in the photograph at the top of this article.
Only a short distance from where many readers live - or from a similar area in your own home town.
Do you suppose, fifty years from now, areas like Tribeca, Downtown Brooklyn, Chelsea and SoHo might also look the same ?
No ?
Why not ? Who, or what, will provide a humanistic and moral solution ?
In fact, the planet - itself a living organism, with its own "immune system" - will take care of the problem on its own, and then none of us will have to concern ourselves about debating this "important issue" anymore.- PJ
- Maine
MEN! The crux of the problem here is men. In other parts of the world with falling fertility rates, women have effectively been reached. They have been reached because they were a bit freer than African women to begin with, a bit further ahead on the scale of advancing civilization. Also cultural ideas spread; South American women saw how successful women on soap operas were with fewer children, etc. China's ruling men took the long view and reacted realistically. Western women can go to the clinic without a man chaperoning them. And, is this the last area in the world allowing multiple wives?
So what will reach Africa's men? How about publicity about soccer stars who have just 2 kids? How about a little reinforcement of paternity laws? A few discreet free vascectomy clinics, for guys who will not admit in front of other guys that they do not want lots of kids? Where are your ideas, people?- Carl R
- San Francisco, CA
People are absolutely the same everywhere. Trying to come up with solutions for "the African problem" is ridiculous and racist on the face of it. If you are worried about too many cars on the freeway, or too-high oil prices, look at the people who drive cars and use oil; they aren't in Africa, by and large.
When English settlers moved to Tasmania, for a couple of generations they had huge families, e.g. 8 children each of whom started another family of 8 was common (and good for genetics researchers, as they kept records). People in the US who feel they are on top of things have lots of kids too; posters have already pointed out Romney and Santorum in this regard. I have not read many posters clamoring for nature to "take its course" with American 1% ers.
If you want to have an orderly, Swedish or Swiss style development of the world, then you have to let people in to places which have orderly governments as quickly as possible. The reason women in Africa and elsewhere think that they have no choice but to accept their lot is because quite rationally they don't.
Lagos is an easy 11 hours from New York. There are places in New England that are in practice as hard to reach from NYC. If there is a benefit to keeping people in Nigeria locked down where they are, there is probably a benefit to keeping backwoods New Englanders locked down as well.- Arun
- NJ
From the preliminary results of the latest census, it appears that Pakistan too is growing faster than the UN demographers' fastest projections. Even with the constant fertility growth rate, Pakistan was to cross 192 million only in 2015; it has already crossed that number.
I present the available information here:
http://observingliberalpakistan.blogspot.com/2012/03/census-preliminary-...- avid reader
- NY
Overpopultaion anywhere will be a threat to human man kind.
Add more third world uneducated people to the mix and further disaster and pain awaits.
The Catholic church should do a graph... when more poor populations become a majority, the ones left to support the church will run out of money and unrest
will take place.
Pain and suffering for all in 100 years and the modern world, eco systems will be wiped out.
You can only fit so many people in a movie theatre until suffocation happens.- SJ
- Mumbai
Higher birth rate or population growth is not merely economic problem but it is political problem. Higher birth rate is another word for LAND GRABBING OF NATIVE PEOPLE. Higher birth rate helps in invading country without fighting war. The victim countries are Europe ( France, GB ), India, Malaysia, Egypt. There are some religion which belives in numbers theory and number superiority and encourages their follower to produce children irrespective of their economic sustainability.- Ed O'Callaghan
- Limerick, Ireland
Why are people so ecocentric all of a sudden? Who cares if we humans consume the face of the planet? Why get all materialistic, like we care, now? We slaughter almost a couple hundred billion animals a year - well 60 billion fish and 60 billion factory farmed animals. Life comes from life. It's us and only us from now on till our final day comes at once. Is'nt that the bigger picture idea of religion?- min
- Bay Area
Some species -- clearly not humans! -- have a built-in mechanism that delays or stops reproduction when the natural environment has deteriorated and will not support more offspring. Maybe humans will evolve such a convenient method, but until then, we're supposed to use our big brains to figure it out and not allow other parts of the body to do the thinking.- Richard
- Massachsetts
Like climate change, over population of the human species remains a problem that thinking human being connot long avoid acknowledging.
Unlike climate change it is impossible for the denighers to argue that the evidence does not exist, or is inconclusive.
We are a species of primate wildly successful at modify the planet to support our own ends. We have a nasty habit of ignoring the fact that the planitary environment is finite and can only support so many of our species living a fulfilling and comfortable life and that it is time to concentrate our efforts on caring for an educting the individuals that have been born and controling our fucundity in order to create societies that are able to live sustainably in their own particular local enviornments.
We in the western world can wait for the maltusian solution to take its course and hold up in our bunkers and lock and load and hope that we survive the collapse or we can redouble our efforts to work our way through the problem of uncontroled population growth. Not cooincidentally the solution of the over population problem also holds the keys to the solution to global climate change, poverty and hunger.
Sadly organized religion is one of the chief impediments. So long as we have organized religions persist in the suppression of eduction (particularly scientific education) the subjigation of women and supports uncontrolled birth rates we will be unable to change the course we are taking to environmental armogeddon- Colin Wright
- Richmond, California
One element the article fails to mention -- although it's hardly a complete explanation for the the phenomenon -- is that the rate for twin births in West Africa is at least twice the global average. There is one town -- Igbo-Ora -- where 45% of all births result in twins.
Presumably, a genetic response to traditionally high rates of infant mortality in a hot, damp climate. However, it's no longer helpful.- Appalled
- Rome, Italy
Living in Europe sadly one gets to see first hand what happens to many of these Nigerian children, particularly the women. Many leave Nigeria, willingly or under duress from their families, to become sex workers; virtual slaves that have to pay a portion of their "earnings" to the criminal gangs controlling the prostitution rings to pay for their passage into Europe. What they endure is absolutely horrifying. It is hard to travel in Italy or Spain and not see streets lined with these women; most of whom left Africa looking for a way of out poverty. "According to UNICRI, the UN's inter-regional crime and justice research centre, Italy is the destination of more than 10,000 Nigerian prostitutes..." http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/italian-and-nigerian-gangs-a-dea...
As much as I respect the family tradtions of the Nigerians, I'm appalled by it. What is the point of 12 children if your daughters have to stand in the bushes, bus stops and back streets of European cities prostituting themselves to support your family's "pride". Please. And that is only the prostitution that takes place on European soil. There is a growing sexual tourism industry wherein European men travel to impoverished countries, including Nigeria, for the specific purpose to have sex with women, and young girls and boys. This is what happens when you have children you can't support. It is easy to be exploited.
http://www.migrationinformation.org/feature/display.cfm?ID=318- Pauline
- NYC
We look on at this now, in horror, from a distance.
We can see the usual suspects at work: patriarchy; lack of education; religious fundamentalism; Catholic and Muslim promotion of high birth rates; high income disparity.
But this culture and its entrenched ignorance will soon create conditions that breed instability and risk for other nations. The rise of radical Islam in an overpopulation of unemployed young men; the desperation that will lead hundreds of thousands to escape to other nations unable to house and feed them. And an increase in already existing inequality will lead to social strife and unrest.
At what point do other nations -- or the United Nations -- have the right to weigh in on a situation that will in the near future be damaging to the well being of the entire planet.- Elizabeth Corley
- Washington
To address the large unmet need for family planning a USAID-funded program is focusing on engaging the private health sector. The aim is to expand the provision of quality family planning counseling and services by private clinic-based providers. You can read more about it here:
http://www.shopsproject.org/about/highlights/nigeria-family-planning-pro...- blackmamba
- IL
But for immigration and a significant population of racial minorities the United States of America would be facing the opposite problem with a rapidly aging and shrinking population.
That is the way that South Korea, Japan, Italy and Russia are headed along with all of Europe.
While India will out pace China soon due to China's one child policy. And China's one child policy in a culture that prefers males has led to a vast gender mismatch with far more males than females. One child is below replacement level.
Seven billion people and counting.... at what cost? and what end?- Heather Remoff
- Arlington, MA
Babies don't cause poverty; poverty causes babies. Correct the economic injustices in Nigeria. Make sure that oil royalties are equitably distributed to all households. Guarantee access to land. Educate and empower women. Birthrates will drop.
Male and female reproductive strategies differ. Sperm is cheap. Eggs are expensive. In a Darwinian sense, it makes sense for women to invest heavily in a few children. Males opt for many children with a lower investment in each one. Educated and empowered women are in a better position to negotiate for the more typical female strategy that supports intensive investment in fewer children.- carioca
- East Sea
The problem is that in countries around the world, the more people, the more money in local polticians' pockets. THAT is the problem and THAT is the main reason fueling unlimited growth.- Ternakia Kaprosi
- Chicago
Somehow I don't think they'll be calling it god's will when epidemics and starvation ravage them.- Susan
- Abuja, Nigeria
This is a good article about an important issue. And the top photo, which looks to me like Baloban Market, is terrific. But some of the comments make me want to weep, both for their mean spirit and their lack of knowledge. Non-military U.S. foreign aid to Africa overall is a pittance, and less than a pittance to Nigeria. Cutting it off will make no difference.
As I think the article makes clear, the issue of population growth is not one the US will solve, could solve, should solve. Nigerians will have to solve it themselves, if they care to, and from the quotes in the article policy-makers seem to understand that and to be making an effort. I- Chakotay
- Texas
Truly disgusting, to think that women are still being forced into having such ridiculously large numbers of children. They are brainwashed by religion to think that having too many children is a good thing, or forced by their husbands and culture. We should do everything possible to encourage the use of birth control throughout the Third World or our overpopulated planet may become unable to provide for all of us, and Mother Nature's methods are seldom humane..- AY
- California
FYI, since we're on the topic: Population Connection (formerly Negative Population Growth...guess that sounded too negative); www.popconnect.comand, doing low-key but great work, www.pci-mediaimpact.org Check them out.
Still, despite all this, traveling is the great true love of my life. I have always felt, ever since I was sixteen years old and first went to Russia with my saved-up babysitting money, that to travel is worth any cost or sacrifice. I am loyal and constant in my love for travel, as I have not always been loyal and constant in my other loves. I feel about travel the way a happy new mother feels about her impossible, colicky, restless, newborn baby--I just don't care what it puts me through. Because I adore it. Because it's mine. Because it looks exactly like me. It can barf all over me if it wants to--I just don't care. Cheap Flights to Abuja
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