One of the most fascinating discoveries my colleague Qaanitah Hunter made while researching our just-published book Who Will Rule South Africa? was that secret talks are under way between the ANC and the DA to form a coalition after the 2024 elections.
Apart from tangential comments by party members, nothing of substance has been forthcoming from these cloak-and-dagger discussions ahead of next year's crossroads poll.
Hunter uncovered that a fascinating proposal was apparently on the table; in exchange for the DA's support to keep the ANC in government, the governing party would hand over Parliament to the DA to run.
Both parties seem to think this is a deal they could sell to their supporters. Let's unpack what such a deal would entail.
Firstly, the newest elections poll, published last week by the Brenthurst Foundation, seems to cement two things that narrow the outcome of next year's vote: the ANC's support is very likely to dip below 50%, and the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), consisting of the DA, IFP, ActionSA, ACDP and smaller parties, is doubtful to reach 50% nationally.
Brenthurst, who polled 1 500 registered voters, has the ANC at 41% of the national vote, the DA at 23%, and the EFF at a whopping 17%. This means the remaining 19% will be split between the smaller parties.
Together, the MPC parties have 36%, and I cannot see how they will grow that to over 50% in the remaining seven months or so.
If the ANC's support drops to the low 40s, I see only three possible scenarios playing out, and all of them involve the ANC remaining the largest partner in a coalition government. I simply cannot see how the DA and EFF would work together to keep the ANC out of office.
DA leader John Steenhuisen has declared the EFF their "political enemy number one". There can only be one number one, which means the ANC is probably enemy number two.
The first scenario sees the ANC making a deal with all the smaller parties with seats in Parliament to meet the magical 201-seat threshold to elect the president in the National Assembly. This includes all the parties in the recently announced Super Pact (APC, Cope, AIC, NFP, AARM and ICM) plus the likes of Al Jama-ah and Gayton McKenzie's Patriotic Alliance.
This will require the ANC to offer all these small party leaders a piece of the Cabinet cake. However, the ANC has recent experience of how fragile such complicated arrangements are in Nelson Mandela Bay and Johannesburg and may want to avoid this for the sake of stability.
You are beholden to every whim of every small party leader who could bring the government down overnight.
The second scenario would be an ANC-EFF deal that would see the red berets elevated to Cabinet and senior government positions. There has already been talk of EFF leader Julius Malema positioning himself as deputy president to ANC deputy leader Paul Mashatile in an arrangement where President Cyril Ramaphosa is recalled for the ANC's poor performance.
This will be disastrous for the country and the economy, with the markets likely to tank overnight. Not only is Malema a criminally accused person, but his party proposes that all property belongs to the state, and they will undoubtedly demand policy changes of the ANC that would see capital and property owners fleeing.
The third and last scenario for the ANC is cutting a deal with their political nemesis, the DA. To be clear, neither party wants this. The ANC cannot stand the DA, its leadership and many policy positions, while the DA has been campaigning for years to unseat the ANC as the governing party, including many court cases that exposed the ANC's corruption and incompetence.
They are unlikely bedfellows, but someone must make the bed, and if it's not them, then who?
It is known that ANC leaders who support Ramaphosa would prefer a deal with the DA over the EFF. The ANC has learnt the hard way in Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg just how dishonest and sly the red berets are when you hand them power. And opening the door of government to the EFF will likely weaken the ANC further and ultimately diminish their support.
This brings me back to the apparent deal: the DA takes charge of oversight, meaning they elect the Speaker of Parliament, the chief whip and the chairs of portfolio committees. The ANC runs the executive but is now accountable to Parliament, which the DA now runs.
This is a creative and innovative solution to both parties' dilemma: how to sell such a deal to your supporters without being accused of selling out.
The ANC can tell its supporters they remain in charge of government policy to deliver services prioritised by the party's national conference. At the same time, the DA can say to its supporters they now have the power to expose ANC ministers not doing their jobs, calling them to account, ordering investigations through standing committees and rebuking poor-performing departments.
The legislative arm has enormous powers, and putting the DA in charge of oversight and accountability could strengthen our democracy. But don't expect either party to talk about this arrangement before the election; for the next seven months or so, they will say the nastiest things about each other to get your vote.
