A Major Fugitive From The Rwanda Massacre Arrested In South Africa

 

Nowhere To Hide

SOUTH AFRICA

South African police and United Nations investigators captured the most wanted fugitive involved in the 1994 Rwandan genocide, a man who had eluded justice for more than 20 years, CNN reported Thursday.

Authorities discovered Fulgence Kayishema in the town of Paarl in western South Africa on Wednesday. He had been on the run since 2001.

Investigators said he used multiple identities and had received assistance from a support network that includes former members of the Rwandan military, who helped conceal Kayishema’s activities and whereabouts.

The UN’s International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT) alleges that Kayishema organized and contributed to the killing of more than 2,000 Tutsi refugees – including women and children – at Nyange Catholic Church during the 1994 genocide.

He supplied the petrol to burn down the church while the refugees were inside, according to investigators. He and other suspects are accused of using a bulldozer to demolish the church after the fire.

The massacre at the church was one of the most brutal of the Rwandan conflict, which saw Hutu militias and civilians murdering around 800,000 Tutsis, as well as moderate Hutus.

The killings finally came to an end 100 days later, when Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) troops, led by Paul Kagame, defeated the Hutu rebels and took control of the country.

The hunt for Kayishame had hit a few snags throughout the years with IRMCT officials previously complaining about the lack of cooperation from South African authorities.

The US War Crimes Rewards Program has offered a reward of up to $5,000,000 for information on Kayishema and other fugitives involved in the Rwandan genocide.

Aside from his arrest, the UN is still searching for three other prominent suspects.

In 2020, French authorities arrested Félicien Kabuga, a leading figure in the genocide, in a Paris suburb. Kabuga had also been on the run for more than two decades.

Mali-Comforting The Afflicters

NEED TO KNOW

Comforting the Afflicters

MALI

Government troops and foreign fighters – allegedly soldiers affiliated with the Wagner Group, the Russian military contractor – massacred at least 500 people in the town of Moura in Mali in late March last year, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Around 20 women and seven children died in the operation that was nominally aiming to kill jihadists who have been operating in the West African nation. UN officials also believe that the soldiers raped 58 women and girls, reported Agence France-Presse.

Calling the findings “extremely disturbing,” the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that “summary executions, rape and torture during armed conflict amount to war crimes and could, depending on the circumstances, amount to crimes against humanity.”

The US State Department called on Mali to work with the international community to bring the perpetrators to justice. In a press release, a spokesman said violence like that in Moura would only drive more Malians into the arms of the jihadists who have been seeking to overturn the military government that has ruled the country since 2021.

Malian leaders denied the allegations in the UN report, saying all those who perished in the raid on Moura were Islamist militants, wrote Reuters.

The massacre occurred as Mali is in a sensitive spot. The country endured military coups in 2020 and 2021, but the generals have promised to hold elections in 2024, explained the United States Institute of Peace. In the meantime, their legitimacy is under threat due to widespread frustration with jihadist violence, corruption, human rights abuses, and economic inequality, among other concerns.

A recent scandal involving a secret recording of a woman seeking to bribe government officials on behalf of a tobacco magnate illustrates the corruption that Malians have grown to despise, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project noted.

Islamists, additionally, have killed hundreds and displaced tens of thousands since they and other insurgents began operating in Mali in 2012, especially in the country’s remote eastern regions, Human Rights Watch added. The UN and European Union, led by France, have deployed peacekeeping missions to the country to fight the militants. But French officials have complained that Malian leaders have not been allowing the forces to fulfill their mandates.

On June 18, voters in Mali are slated to vote yes or no on whether to accept a new draft constitution that would provide a framework for officials elected in an expected ballot next year, Radio France Internationale reported. Critics have panned the idea of a referendum, saying the country needs to achieve peace and stability first, Al Jazeera wrote.

In the case of Mali, however, it’s hard to tell whether public support is necessary to secure peace or vice versa.

 

Adriann Basson: Notes From Franschloek-It's Not All Doom And Gloom

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Notes from Franschhoek – it's not all doom and gloom What gives you hope? Is hope a choice? Does hope require us to be part of the solution? Or is hope just an empty slogan on a T-shirt?   I've been sitting with these questions after attending three magnificent days of the Franschhoek Literary Festival in the Cape Winelands. It was good for the soul to reconnect with South Africans who are all invested in the future, surrounded by spectacular mountains, brilliant conversations and, of course, incredible wine.   If I had to summarise the three days in one tweet, it would be this: "South Africa has many problems – load shedding, crime, corruption and poverty, to name a few. But we have brilliant people who are plotting a better future. It has always been five minutes to midnight in this country; let's not waste a good crisis and be part of the solution rather than talking yourself into a perpetual state of depression."   The festival is an annual highlight in my calendar. It brings together authors, writers and thinkers from all spheres and genres to help the audience reflect, think and dream. This year was no different, with magnificent sessions - like the launch of I Am Ella, Joanne Jowell's brilliant book about Auschwitz survivor Ella Blumenthal, who turns 103 this year and wowed the audience with her stories of resilience and hope.   Jonny Steinberg, arguably our best non-fiction writer, launched his internationally acclaimed Winnie & Nelson: Portrait of a Marriage. The book, called an "outstanding biography" by the Financial Times, chronicles the complicated relationship between the Mandela husband and wife in a way it's never been written before. Steinberg is a national treasure.   Lawyer Bulelwa Mabasa discussed her outstanding book, My Land Obsession: A Memoir, with Koketso Sachane, detailing the very personal impact of land dispossession on her family and the impact it had on her life.   Around every corner and coffee shop I bumped into world-class authors, like Etienne van Heerden, Michiel Heyns, Joanne Joseph, Margie Orford, Sue Nyathi, Zapiro, Mandy Wiener, Pumla Dineo Gqola and Antjie Krog. It was a timely reminder of the abundance of talent this country has produced in the world of writing.   The quality of discussion, debate and reflection was outstanding. It was a great reminder that we are at our best when we sit or stand and talk about issues affecting our personal and public lives. This country has never shied away from a great debate and that is something to celebrate.   I left Franschhoek under no illusion about the enormity of the issues we face: the threat of instability and lawlessness if the economy doesn't grow and create more jobs; the fragility of our democracy if populists and demagogues manage to win the day at next year's elections; the threat to our livelihoods (and sanity) if load shedding deepens and ideology gets in the way of energy solutions; and the perilous slide into a mafia state if the police and National Prosecuting Authority don't find swift solutions to remove the kingpins and dons of these syndicates from our streets.   Here are some of the green shoots I picked up on the streets of Franschhoek. Probably the most exciting and impactful development is the real prospect that load shedding may be a thing of the past in 18 to 24 months. I've heard this from a few people in the know, who have the government's ear and are actively involved in the renewable energy sector.   The speed and verve with which renewable energy projects are being rolled out and constructed will be a game-changer for our future, I'm told. Some of the world's largest solar plants will be in South Africa. Although it's a while down the road, and we are at a very cold winter's door, it gave me hope to know there is a light at the end of the load shedding tunnel.   On the political front, I'm told there are serious moves afoot to bring the centre of our politics together and build some form of united front ahead of next year's elections. It's still unclear to me what shape or form this will take, but I believe Democrats across all party lines, who recognise the urgency of our deep service delivery problems, are talking about finding a stable, sustainable solution after the 2024 election.   For what it's worth, I was part of a good number of discussions over the weekend, where historic supporters of the ANC and the DA were in complete agreement that it's time for the cool, logical heads in both parties to sit around a table. Watch this space.   Lastly, I was reminded of the enormous amount of citizens, academics, lawyers, activists and community leaders who actively participate in the state of our nation and simply won't walk away when power is being abused. The latest example is Gun Free South Africa's class action against the police for the over 2 000 stolen police guns used in crimes, and Whistleblower House's pivotal efforts to support whistleblowers who lose their livelihoods when they speak truth to power.   We will continue this discussion on the state of the nation and what each of us can do to return South Africa on a path of growth and prosperity at News24's On the Record summit in Cape Town on Thursday.

Andre De Ruyter "Tells All" About South Africa's Escom

 

Business Briefing A deep dive into the big business story of the week, as well as expert analysis of markets and trends.

HELENA WASSERMAN, BUSINESS EDITOR

EDITORIAL De Ruyter's problematic truth bomb  Listen, André de Ruyter’s new memoir is a rip-roaring must-read. The shocks and one-liners just keep on coming. Major revelations are presented alongside delicious pettiness (he claims a former Sasol CEO was more focused on the “Sasol blue shade” of tablecloths than on strategy) and amusing details of De Ruyter’s OCD tendencies (he constantly wants to straighten picture frames in government offices).  Crucially, it is deeply alarming. It details how the fraught and broken inner workings of high-level government are paralysing Eskom and hurting South Africa. The disgraceful neglect of power stations and the indifference and ineptitude among Eskom staff are laid bare, along with corruption inside the utility and the networks of thieving and sabotage. A portrait of an incompetent new Eskom board leaves the reader with little hope for the future.  Some questions, however. It’s not clear that De Ruyter was successful in a crucial element of New CEO 101: listening to and winning the hearts and minds of your workforce. Yes, he inherited staff who didn’t have the right skills, were overpaid and often apathetic, and some stole from the company. But that was his reality, and before anything else, he should have found a more constructive and clever way to get mass buy-in for his agenda, while reflecting workers’ concerns and ambitions. Instead, his approach was top-down, with the book detailing scene after scene of seagull management (flying in, sh*tting on workers, and flying out).   De Ruyter also comes across as being particularly bad at another CEO requirement: getting the main shareholder on your side. In this case, the shareholder was often openly antagonistic, undermining, extremely dysfunctional due to infighting and inaction, and prone to bad decisions. But again, that is the reality that he had to work with.  Perhaps if De Ruyter were a bit more pragmatic and politically savvy, and tried to build individual relationships with the key players who tried to block his way, it would have helped Eskom more. This may speak to some arrogance on the side of De Ruyter, who doesn’t really admit to making any major mistakes over the three years (except for the timing of the eNCA broadcast). That makes him the most perfect CEO, probably ever.  Troubling also is confirmation that the book had been “years” in the making (De Ruyter was only CEO for three years.)  Throughout the book, he chronicles the toll an excruciating schedule took on him and his family. Yet, he found the time to write a book. Perhaps Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan has a point in saying that it distracted De Ruyter from running the utility. Say you appointed a CEO for a dumpster-fire company that is R422 billion in debt while failing to produce products as most of its factories are falling apart and being looted. Would you be happy for him to take on a side job as a writer - especially of a tell-all exposé? In this case, the company also devastated an economy and caused endless misery to millions of people.  Then there’s the timing of the publication. Landmark CEO autobiographies are usually published years after their terms ended – for example, Lee Iacocca only published his account of his time at Ford six years after he was fired. Phil Knight’s memoir came out 12 years after he resigned as Nike's CEO.  In the latest episode of HBO’s Succession, a character notes that information is like a bottle of fine wine. “You store it, you hoard it, you save it for a special occasion, and then you smash someone's f*cking face in with it." Perhaps De Ruyter should have taken a beat before smashing the bottle. As South Africa is facing a Stage 8 winter, key decision-makers are now distracted by defending themselves against his allegations, while launching lawsuits and other investigations into De Ruyter. He clearly wanted to defend his own legacy immediately – but at what cost? Throughout the book, De Ruyter makes much of his Dutch heritage (his parents emigrated from the Netherlands). He credits it for his irreverence, disregard for hierarchy and forthrightness. But as the joke about Dutch self-conviction goes: “What are the first words of Dutch babies? ‘Volgens mij’ (according to me).” It bears reminding: this is the gospel only according to De Ruyter. Enjoy your weekend, Helena

The Sudan Civil War Is More Dangerous Than It Seems

 

Wobbly Dominoes

SUDAN

The civil war in Sudan has claimed hundreds of lives and forced more than 160,000 people to flee to Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia since it began in mid-April, according to the New York Times.

International observers are now wondering if the war-torn African nation might export more trouble to its neighbors in the coming days and weeks.

“Sudan has seven neighbors, all of whom have some degree of chronic instability,” American University international politics professor Kwaku Nwamah told VOA. “This conflict can go regional in a minute. It could even spill over across the Red Sea into Saudi Arabia and Yemen. So, there’s a whole bunch of things that can go wrong in that region.”

Countries like Chad have been grappling with the legacies of colonialism, corruption and incompetence, Islamic terrorism, and other challenges for decades. Now the influx of weapons into Sudan might spread into the country and find their way into the hands of the Islamic State-affiliated Boko Haram and its offshoot, the Islamic State West Africa Province.

One of the factions in the civil war, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – whose leader, Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), is seeking to oust Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country’s de facto ruler – has ties to the Janjaweed, a Sudanese-Arab paramilitary group that committed atrocities in Darfur in southwestern Sudan in the 2000s. Janjaweed fighters now also operate in Chad and potentially Yemen, too. Their links to other extremist groups could cause untold chaos in the region, wrote Foreign Policy magazine.

Hemedti has close ties with the United Arab Emirates, for example, added Andreas Krieg, a professor of Defense Studies at King’s College in London, in the Middle East Eye. The oil-rich UAE, meanwhile, is a hub for dark money for violent factions in Libya as well as the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary contractor that has expanded its presence from Europe to the Middle East and across Africa. Hemedti sent 1,000 RSF fighters to Libya in 2019 to help Khalifa Haftar, who enjoys the UAE’s support.

Meanwhile, armed “fortune seekers” are flooding into the Sudanese fight from across Africa’s Sahel region, including from Mali, Chad, Niger (and possibly the Central African Republic), UN special representative Volker Perthes has said, warning that “their number is not insignificant,” reported Agence France Presse. They can earn more in Sudan than at home, analysts say.

These shifts are also happening while the geopolitical order is rebalancing to accommodate the US’ diminished role as a global superpower, as the Iraq fiasco, the American pullout from Afghanistan, and a host of other developments evince, said Middle East Monitor.

Consequently, because Sudan is located so strategically – at the headwater of the Nile, on the Red Sea, and on the edge of the Middle East – and because US influence in the region is waning, China, Russia, and other powers have been deploying diplomatic, military, economic, and other resources to make sure they determine Sudan and the region’s future, University of Washington historian Christopher Tounsel noted in the Conversation.

It’s a powder keg, a free-for-all, and a tragedy wrapped into one. And it could become much, much worse.

#Lady Russiagate: Fit To Govern? No Not the ANC

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

#LadyRussiagate: Fit to govern? No, not the ANC I'm sure many of you, dear readers, have tried, like I have, unsuccessfully, to decipher the ANC government's response to US Ambassador Reuben Brigety's Molotov cocktail he tossed to Pretoria on Thursday.   The only possible conclusions I've been able to reach are all terrible for South Africa, the government, and the ANC.   Let's pause briefly and go back five months to that fateful night in December when the Lady R docked at Simon's Town naval base.   South Africans aren't stupid, and when the good people of Simon's Town saw this red monstrosity spoiling their view of dilapidating arms deal ships on a good Thursday afternoon, they alerted the media.   The story made headlines, and after initially bumbling their way through a response, Defence Minister Thandi Modise, herself trained in guerrilla warfare in uMkhonto weSizwe, committed to a version later in December.   Pushed by the country's vigilant journalists for answers, Modise said: "We do know, however, that whatever contents this vessel was getting were ordered long before Covid started."   Modise said she was still awaiting all the "paperwork" about the mysterious arms deal and would clarify the matter once she had all the answers. This never happened.   But what is important is that President Cyril Ramaphosa's minister of defence told him (assuming he still reads the local media) in December that South Africa received or shipped (or both) arms from, or, to Russia from a national key point at a time that Russia was at war with Ukraine.   In a normal, functioning democracy, this would have set off red flashing lights. A normal, functioning president would immediately have summoned Modise and demanded answers from the head of the South African National Defence Force. Because, you see, the National Conventional Arms Control Act of 2002 prohibits us from selling weapons to a country involved in a war.   If we were trading guns with Russia in December, this could mean a lengthy jail time for all those involved, including ministers, generals, arms dealers, and functionaries who engineered the cover-up.   Like with many things concerning Ramaphosa, it is unknown if he knew and what he did. But we can confidently say the president was not perturbed enough to initiate a judicial commission of inquiry to get to the bottom of what has now become known as #LadyRussiagate.   At the end of January, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited South Africa and registered her concerns with the authorities about Lady R's visit. She was allegedly told the South African authorities would investigate what happened at Simon's Town - again, nothing happened.   So, when Ramaphosa sent his special envoys, including his dodgy former advisor Bejani Chauke, to Washington DC in April to smooth things over with the Americans ahead of Russian warmonger president Vladimir Putin's planned visit to Durban for a BRICS summit in August, they should not have been surprised to receive questions about Lady R.   Again, they had no answers. Shoulders were shrugged.   "If you Americans claim you have intelligence that something dodgy happened in Simon's Town, show us the evidence," seems to have been the mantra of our compatriots.   And so Ambassador Brigety, no longer only famous for his flamboyant bow ties, became the loudhailer through which the United States, South Africa's second-largest trading partner, tossed a petrol bomb at our gutless foreign policy and exposed the ANC's inability to govern for the world to see.   In the wake of Brigety's announcement that he would "bet my life", Lady R left the shores of Simon's Town stocked with arms and ammunition, Ramaphosa hastily announced the formation of a judicial inquiry to determine the truth of what happened in December.   This may yet be the lowest point of his presidency.   The government's formal position that there are no records of an official arms transaction between the states of South Africa and Russia exposes the possibility that something much more sinister may have happened. And that Ramaphosa did nothing since December when his defence minister alerted the world of an arms sale at our naval base.   It is not surprising a dodgy arms deal with a country at war would have been kept off the books. The Americans have now forced Ramaphosa's hand to open every single book, slip and receipt about the transaction.   The only remaining possibility, if weapons left with the Lady R (and it's hard to see how the US would have made this claim without evidence), is that the SANDF allowed a national key point to be abused for an illegal arms deal involving third parties to benefit a country at war. This is the kind of stuff that topples governments; it should topple governments.   I struggle to see an innocent path for Ramaphosa or the ANC out of this. Their criminal inaction to do anything of substance since Modise blew this whistle in December - or their treacherous silence about what happened in the dark of night, if they know - is further proof the ANC is no longer fit to govern.

A French Island Has An Illegal Immigrant Problem

 

Eldorado’s Slums

MAYOTTE

French authorities have dispatched more than 1,800 police officers and gendarmes as well as 500 prosecutors, social workers, and others to the island of Mayotte, a French territory lying between Madagascar and the coast of Mozambique. Called “Operation Wuambushu”, or “take back” in the local Maore tongue, the security forces’ deployment is part of a crackdown on immigration that stirred controversy in Europe and throughout the Indian Ocean.

As the Local explained, French officials want to move thousands of illegal immigrants from Mayotte to nearby Comoros, an archipelago nation that is the origin for many of the migrants who have come to Mayotte over the years. Protests recently sprung up in Paris against the policy. But the response closer to the island has been more serious. Migrants have clashed with police in Mayotte. In Comoros, leaders have told French leaders that they will refuse to accept the expelled immigrants, reported Punch, a Nigerian news magazine.

Half of Mayotte’s population of around 350,000 people are foreigners. Most are Comoran. Three islands form Comoros, a sovereign nation that was formerly a French colony. Mayotte is the fourth island in the chain but is now considered a French department, or state. Its infrastructure has benefits as a result. “Boasting schools, hospitals, roads, and a social safety net, Mayotte is an eldorado that every year thousands of impoverished Comorans risk their lives trying to reach,” wrote Agence France-Presse.

Madagascans are among those who undertake the journey, too, often at great peril. Speaking to the BBC, human rights activists described the lagoon around the island as an “open-air graveyard.” The promise of moving to Mayotte and potentially becoming a French citizen, however, lures people to the country.

Residents of Mayotte heartily support France’s moves to stop the influx. A mass demonstration in favor of the crackdown recently occurred in Mamoudzou, the territory’s capital. Their support reflects how crime has increased on the island recently, including a 16 percent increase in murders last year and a 30 percent spike in violent thefts, according to French officials, the Jurist added.

“The citizen mobilization is important, it supports the action of elected officials who called this operation to claim our security and our freedom,” Mamoudzou’s mayor Ambdilwahedou Soumaila told Agence France-Presse. “Mamoudzou has the largest slum in France. We are not proud of this record. A slum is first of all (promoting) sanitary and ecological insecurity, it is the indignity of the nation.”

Late last month, a court in Mayotte ordered French authorities to pause Operation Wuambushu on civil liberties grounds, Al Jazeera noted. The authorities vowed to appeal.

Justice, prosperity, and borders don’t necessarily overlap.

The Braai That Could Have Saved JOhannesburg

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

The braai that could have saved Johannesburg Four weeks ago, DA leader John Steenhuisen, Patriotic Alliance leader Gayton McKenzie and Freedom Front Plus chief whip Corné Mulder sat down for a braai at Mulder's house in Cape Town.   According to McKenzie, who is not a small man, the braai meat was delicious, and Mrs Mulder's potato salad spectacular.   On the agenda for the braai meeting was an attempt to salvage the acrimonious relationship between the DA and the PA with an eye on returning an opposition-led city government to Johannesburg last week. This followed Steenhuisen's bold announcement of a so-called moonshot pact between opposition parties to unseat the ANC after next year's general election.   Steenhuisen is a shrewd politician and he knows he needs the numbers to make the pact work. Mulder is fast becoming the godfather of coalitions in South Africa and plays a pivotal role in bringing smaller parties and the DA, viewed by many of the smaller parties as arrogant and a bully, together in the national interest.   By the "national interest", I merely mean a government that is not corrupt, wants to deliver basic services and subscribes to the rule of law. The bar is pretty low at the moment.   McKenzie has become a major player in coalition politics. With its eight seats in the Johannesburg council (the party received 54 176 votes in the metro in November 2021), the PA has become the kingmaker in the city of gold.   McKenzie, the former-bank robber-turned-businessman (he told me last week he was "very, very rich"), decides who leads Johannesburg, finish and klaar. Without the possibility of the ANC and the DA finding common ground, a 3% party will determine who rules Jozi.   Mulder knew this and wanted to see if he could save the city from another disastrous ANC/EFF city government with a puppet mayor from a 1% party. The ANC's pact with the EFF in Gauteng must count as one of the most bizarre and destructive political deals in the party's history. I reckon it will cost the ANC votes next year, but that is a topic for another day.   There are different versions of the braai meeting, but even the differences are telling.   Everyone agrees the food was delicious and Mrs Mulder's potato salad an undisputed highlight of the evening.   McKenzie says he and Steenhuisen "shook hands" on a deal to save Johannesburg. The deal proposed by the PA leader was that the DA gets the speaker and executive positions in the city council, while the mayor comes from ActionSA or is McKenzie himself.   According to McKenzie, Steenhuisen agreed in principle but said he would have to get the deal approved by the DA's federal council, chaired by Helen Zille.   McKenzie says he was shocked a few days later when the DA's Gauteng leader Solly Msimanga attacked him and the PA in public for wanting to cut backroom deals. He saw this as a betrayal of the spirit in which the braai was held.   This triggered McKenzie's deputy and MMC for roads and transport in Johannesburg, Kenny Kunene, to launch a vitriolic attack on Msimanga on social media, in which he accused Msimanga of corruption.   Steenhuisen remembers the braai differently. He says he would never have shaken hands on a deal that would see the PA getting the mayorship in Johannesburg. He agrees on the reason for the braai meeting and that it was important for the DA to unite the opposition ahead of 2024.   Steenhuisen says he made it clear to McKenzie around the fire that the DA couldn't bring the PA into a coalition while the party was propping up ANC governments in nine municipalities.   This also became the DA's official position.   Mulder's recollection is that Steenhuisen listened to McKenzie's proposal (of a PA or ActionSA mayor) and asked for six days to discuss it with the DA's federal council. "John didn't say yes or no, but he also didn't say it was an absurd idea."   Mulder denies Steenhuisen told McKenzie there was no possibility of a deal if the PA did not distance itself from the ANC. "That would have been strange anyway, since the DA never made such demands of parties like the UDM in Nelson Mandela Bay."   According to Mulder, things went awry when McKenzie announced he would be available for mayor of Johannesburg, and Msimanga attacked him in public.   At a follow-up meeting at the DA's Bruma headquarters, all the opposition parties, the PA included, agreed that they should come to an agreement, and McKenzie no longer insisted on the mayorship. Steenhuisen was flanked by DA colleagues and said he could take no decisions but had to take suggestions back to the federal council.   A few days later, on 22 April, the DA wrote a letter to its partners, insisting that the PA cuts all ties with the ANC in all municipalities countrywide before it would re-enter into a coalition agreement with the party in Johannesburg.   This blew McKenzie's top. "The DA doesn't tell us who our friends should be. I don't hate the ANC and I don't hate the DA. The DA will not tell you that the PA supported their budget in Tshwane and their mayor in Karoo Hoogland. We are not our parents' generation that will be told what to do."   McKenzie, who vacated his position as Central Karoo mayor last week and will focus the next 12 months on building the PA's national footprint, says, "How the DA treats us now will inform how we respond the day after the 2024 elections." He firmly believes the PA will be the kingmaker nationally, and he may not be wrong.   He claims the PA has 330 000 registered members, and he will aim for "1.5 million votes or about 8%" next year. He is actively doing ground-level campaigning in the Western Cape and threatens to bring down the DA's support in the province to below 50%.   "Watch Oudtshoorn, Witzenberg, Saldana and the George by-election. Zille knows we are coming for her, she is smart," says McKenzie, who travels with 15 bodyguards in a black, tinted Mercedes-Benz van.   Mulder is perplexed about the DA's reaction to McKenzie. "Anyone who knows Gayton knows you don't give him an ultimatum. He will do exactly the opposite."   And the rest is history. On Friday, the PA gifted their eight votes in Johannesburg to Al Jama-ah councillor Kabelo Gwamanda to become the ANC's chosen mayor. The remainder of the opposition parties put forward ActionSA's Funzi Ngobeni for mayor and the DA persisted with Mpho Phalatse.   "There are 18 political parties in Johannesburg. The ANC had their partners voting with them, ActionSA united the other opposition parties and the DA stood alone. That is significant," Mulder tells me. But he hasn't lost hope altogether for an opposition pact and will continue his efforts to bring players like the DA and the PA together.   Steenhuisen says it's too soon to say the moonshot pact is dead. He is planning a series of meetings with parties, "represented in Johannesburg and those outside".    And McKenzie? He spent the weekend in Orania, praising the white supremacists' clean town and effective local government system, as the first potential scandal about Gwamanda's business dealings emerged.   Something tells me Mrs Mulder is going to prepare a lot more potato salad between now and May 2024.

A Serious Election In Johannesburg

 

Editor's notebook

ADRIAAN BASSON, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Litmus test for ANC, DA, ActionSA in Joburg metro showdown On Tuesday, the 270 elected councillors of the City of Johannesburg are scheduled to meet again to elect the city's fourth mayor in the 18 months since the November 2021 municipal elections.   In these times of silly coalition politics and opportunistic horse trading, it is easy to become cynical about these events. But who leads the city of gold, South Africa's economic heartland is not inconsequential.   It is crucially important for the future of South Africa that Johannesburg survives. As the city faces a potentially crippling water crisis and infrastructure collapse, the electorate should keep a close eye on Tuesday's proceedings for clues as to how political parties will act as coalition partners.   A working, efficient and non-corrupt metropolitan municipality is a prerequisite for Johannesburg to be restored to a functioning, attractive setting for people to live and trade-in.   This is a trial run of what could transpire at a provincial and national level after next year's watershed general elections.   I would argue that the ANC and the DA have the most to lose during Tuesday's proceedings (or whenever a new mayor is elected, in case of another postponement).   According to reports, the ANC caucus is split in its support for another minnow party mayor to replace Al Jama-ah's Thapelo Amad, the train crash candidate gifted to the city by Panyaza Lesufi and Gayton McKenzie for less than four months.   Lesufi, Gauteng leader of the ANC, and McKenzie, leader of the Patriotic Alliance, flanked Amad like proud parents after his election in January when the ANC-led coalition finally managed to unseat the DA's Mpho Phalatse.   A major turning point was the decision by the EFF to formally endorse the ANC in Gauteng's municipalities with an essential condition: that an ANC candidate is not the mayor. The ANC capitulated, handing Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Mogale City to mayors from Al Jama-ah, the AIC and ATM, respectively.   But after the spectacular collapse of the short-lived Amad era, the ANC's regional leadership is seemingly split between continuing to dance to the EFF's tune or installing its own mayor in Dada Morero, the regional ANC leader and former city mayor.   Morero is highly experienced, and it would make the most sense for the ANC to convince its coalition partners to back him in the interest of stability and fixing Johannesburg. But some in the ANC want to continue pleasing the EFF by electing another mayor from a minnow party.   Al Jama-ah's Kabelo Gwamanda and Cope's Colleen Makhubele have been mentioned. Gwamanda is even more of a political non-entity than Amad. Makhubele was instrumental in breaking up Phalatse's DA-led alliance when she jumped ship to the ANC's side in exchange for the speaker position.   Makhubele is doing as she pleases since Cope is effectively non-functioning, although it is officially still part of the multiparty opposition coalition.   The remaining opposition coalition, minus the DA, will propose ActionSA's Funzi Ngobeni as mayor. The DA has said it would put forward Phalatse's name again.   This has caused (another) significant fallout between the second and third-largest parties in the metro, who simply seem unable to agree on a strategy to unseat the ANC.   ActionSA and its supporters, like the ACDP and the IFP, have pleaded with the DA to accept the PA back into the coalition's fold. Mathematically, the ANC and EFF can't rule Joburg without the PA's support.   I understand DA leader John Steenhuisen recently met with McKenzie to try to come to an agreement that would have seen the DA-led coalition take back the city, but in a letter to its former coalition partners, Steenhuisen said the DA would not work with the PA if it did not sever ties with the ANC nationally in all municipalities where they cooperate.   This irked ActionSA and its partners who urged the DA to rethink its position to keep Johannesburg out of the ANC and the EFF's hands. This is a tough predicament for Steenhuisen; a few weeks ago, after being re-elected as DA leader, he told the country that the ANC working with the EFF was a "doomsday" scenario.   On this basis, he urged other opposition parties to join the DA's so-called moonshot pact. But the DA has just walked away when presented with an opportunity to unseat the ANC and EFF in Johannesburg.   Must one now assume that the PA is also part of the DA's "doomsday" no-no list? If so, the DA's list of no-go zones is becoming awfully long for a party with grand ambitions.   Assuming the ANC-led camp agrees on a candidate, what will the DA do when it comes to voting? If there are more than two candidates on the ballot, there is a system of elimination until two candidates are left.   Assuming the ANC candidate, ActionSA's Ngobeni and the DA's Phalatse are on the ballot, it is technically possible for Phalatse to be eliminated in the first round if ActionSA could convince almost all the smaller parties to vote for Ngobeni. This would leave the DA in a predicament: to vote for an ANC-backed or ActionSA mayor.   But the same is true for Herman Mashaba's green army: if Phalatse gets more votes than Ngobeni in round one, would they and their smaller partners allow the ANC candidate to succeed instead? Would they vote against Phalatse, who did an okay job as mayor according to all accounts?   Get out the popcorn.